Levi Rothermund
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Freiburg sit third in the table with ten points from four games, a run built on goals and control. Schalke 04 arrive in tenth, five points from four, a side that defends well but simply can’t find the net. The numbers tell a blunt story here: Schalke have scored only three goals in four league matches, fewer than almost anyone above the relegation zone.
Julian Schuster’s side have been scoring for fun at home this season, and this fixture at the Europa-Park-Stadion looks like a chance to pile more misery on a Schalke attack that has gone cold.
Watch Yannick Engelhardt for Freiburg. He’s contributed two goals and five interceptions across his last two tracked outings, box to box impact that Schuster relies on heavily. For Schalke, Edin Dzeko remains the focal point up top, limited minutes lately but still the man asked to turn half-chances into something concrete.
Hot stat: Schalke have managed just three goals combined across their last five fixtures, the exact same number Freiburg scored in one single match, their 5-0 demolition of Borussia Mönchengladbach.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Bundesliga 2026/27, Regular Season |
| 🏟 Venue: | Europa-Park-Stadion, Freiburg |
| 🗓️ Date: | 11.10.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 17:30 CEST |
Freiburg vs Schalke 04 prediction
We think Freiburg wins this comfortably, and the smarter way to back it is through a handicap angle rather than the plain moneyline. Freiburg have outscored opponents 12-3 at home this campaign, while Schalke’s away form has leaned on clean sheets rather than firepower. A Freiburg win with a goal or two margin, covering a -1 line, looks like the value play.
Style-wise this is a mismatch in tempo. Freiburg’s last five matches show 41 shots, 864 pass accuracy points and just 18 fouls, controlled, attacking football with discipline. Schalke sit deeper, commit more fouls (20) relative to their output, and their pass accuracy trails behind at 420 across the same sample. That gap in ball control usually means Freiburg dictate territory and chances, while Schalke rely on set pieces and moments.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Freiburg -1 Asian Handicap |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Freiburg’s recent run reads like a team peaking at the right time. A 4-2 win over Luzern was their most recent outing, goals coming easily but two conceded too, a small sign they can get stretched when pushing numbers forward. Before that came the 5-0 romp over Gladbach and a 4-1 win against Werder Bremen, both showing the attacking depth Schuster now has at his disposal. Only the 2-2 draw with Eintracht Frankfurt breaks up an otherwise dominant stretch.
Schalke’s last match was a tight 1-0 win over Austria Lustenau, the kind of low-scoring, grinding result that’s defined their season. A 0-0 draw with Bayern Munich earlier in this stretch actually stands out as their best defensive showing, proof Miron Muslic’s side can frustrate anyone when organized. In our preview of Schalke 04 vs Elversberg we leaned on goals at both ends alongside Elversberg avoiding defeat, reasoning that Schalke’s attack would keep misfiring. The actual 0-0 scoreline went against the goals side of that call, Schalke’s attack stayed blank, but so did Elversberg’s, meaning the clean sheet undercut the BTTS angle we backed.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
Freiburg and Schalke 04 have no recent competitive meetings in the data available to us, so there’s nothing concrete to compare from past encounters between these two clubs.
🚨Check out our dedicated Freiburg vs Schalke 04 stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Freiburg the favourite
- Moneyline Freiburg 1.65 | Schalke 04 5.43
- Draw 3.98
Bookmakers give Freiburg a 58% implied chance of winning, and honestly that feels about right given the gap in points, goals scored and overall control. Schalke’s price above 5.00 reflects how little their attack has offered away from home this season. A draw near 4.00 isn’t unreasonable either, Schalke have drawn twice in their last five, but we don’t think it’s the shrewdest way to stake money here.
Possible Starting Lineups
Freiburg possible starting eleven
- GK: Mio Backhaus
- DF: Philipp Lienhart, Matthias Ginter, Jordy Makengo, Philipp Treu
- MF: Maximilian Eggestein, Yannick Engelhardt, Yuito Suzuki, Jan-Niklas Beste
- FW: Igor Matanovic, Derry Lionel Scherhant
Schuster’s 4-4-2 relies on Ginter and Lienhart holding the back line steady while Makengo and Treu push the width. Engelhardt’s two goals from his last two outings make him the player to watch in midfield, and up top Matanovic’s recent scoring form pairs well with Scherhant’s direct running.
Schalke 04 possible starting eleven
- GK: Loris Karius
- DF: Robin Gosens, Nikola Katić, Timo Becker, Hassan Kurucay
- MF: Soufiane El-Faouzi, Satoshi Tanaka, Adil Aouchiche, Junior Dina Ebimbe, Kenan Karaman
- FW: Edin Dzeko
Muslic’s 4-2-3-1 leans on El-Faouzi and Tanaka screening the back four, both logging heavy passing and interception numbers in recent matches. Gosens brings experience and a goal threat from fullback, while Dzeko remains the nominal focal point even with his limited minutes lately, Schalke simply need him to hold the ball up and buy time for the attacking three behind him.
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Schalke 04. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
The Verdict
We’re backing Freiburg here, and backing them comfortably. Their home form, goal output and overall control of games point one direction. Schalke can defend, their draw against Bayern proved that much, but three league goals in four matches is a real problem against a team scoring at this rate. Our lean is Freiburg to win by at least two goals, somewhere around a 2-0 or 3-1 scoreline, with the corner count and total shots both likely to favor the hosts by a wide margin.
