Alex MacQuoid
Group B of the Women’s World Cup UEFA Qualification is heading into its final matchday with the top of the table still unsettled. France sit on 10 points, one ahead of Ireland on 9, meaning a draw is enough for Les Bleues to clinch the group. Ireland need a win, plain and simple. What makes this fixture particularly sharp is that these two sides already met earlier in this same qualifying campaign, with France edging it 2-1 — and back in 2024, Ireland beat France 3-1 in the European Championship qualifier. So there’s genuine history here, and Ireland have proven they can hurt this France side.
Two players to watch: Melvine Malard has been France’s most direct threat in recent outings, contributing both a goal and an assist in the last match against Poland, and her movement off the ball consistently creates problems for compact defensive blocks. For Ireland, Abbie Larkin offers the kind of quick transition play that can expose France when they push their fullbacks high — she scored and assisted in Ireland’s 3-2 win over the Netherlands just days ago.
Hot stat: Ireland have scored 3+ goals in two of their last three matches, netting 3-2 wins against both Poland and the Netherlands. That attacking output from a side expected to be defensively cautious is genuinely surprising given their pass accuracy sat at just 170 out of 267 passes in the last match — they’re not building through the thirds, they’re punching on the counter.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Women’s World Cup Qualification UEFA 2026, League A Group B |
| 🏟 Venue: | Brann Stadion, Bergen |
| 🗓️ Date: | 09.06.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 21:00 CEST |
France (W) vs Ireland (W) Prediction
France are heavy favorites at 1.14-1.15 across the books, and the math backs that up — they need only a draw to qualify, they have better squad depth, and their passing volume (525 passes to Ireland’s 267 in the last respective matches) shows a side that controls tempo rather than chasing the game. The problem is Ireland’s incentive structure. Vera Pauw’s side must attack, which means the game is unlikely to be the cautious affair that would suit France’s current position.
We think the most likely scenario is France scoring first, sitting into a mid-block, and Ireland pushing forward in the second half — which historically opens up space for French counters. Malard and Sandy Baltimore both benefit from exactly that kind of game. A France win with both teams scoring feels like the most honest read of how this plays out, given Ireland’s recent goal threat and France’s tendency to concede when opponents commit forward (they lost 2-1 to the Netherlands in one of their last three matches).
France have committed 7 fouls and picked up 1 yellow card in their last match, while Ireland managed only 5 fouls with zero cards — both sides play with reasonable discipline. Ireland’s low pass accuracy (170/267) confirms they won’t try to outpossess France; they’ll look to win the ball back quickly and spring transitions. That style tends to generate fewer corners (only 4 in the last match vs France’s 12), so the corner market leans heavily toward France dominating set-piece situations. France’s shot volume (18 attempts in the last match) also suggests they’ll create enough to cover the over market on total goals, especially with Ireland needing to commit bodies forward late on.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | France to win & Both Teams to Score |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 8.5 |
Team Analysis
France have been largely dominant in this group, though not without fault. Their last outing was a 2-0 win over Poland, with Malard and Baltimore on the scoresheet — a comfortable result against the group’s weakest side. Before that, they drew 1-1 with the Netherlands and lost 2-1 to them in the reverse fixture, which showed that when pressed by a technically capable opponent, France can be disorganized at the back. Coach Laurent Bonadei’s side averaged over 500 passes in that Poland match, but the real test will be replicating that control against a more aggressive pressing unit. Their form across the full campaign reads as solid but not flawless — they’ve dropped points twice, both times against the Netherlands. Ireland are a different threat, more physical and direct.
Ireland’s last match was genuinely impressive: a 3-2 win over the Netherlands, with Kyra Carusa, Abbie Larkin, and Amber Barrett all finding the net. Vera Pauw set up in a 4-2-3-1 that pressed high in bursts and relied on Courtney Brosnan making key saves (3 in that match) to stay in the game when the Netherlands pushed back. Their overall form across 5 matches shows 3 wins and 2 losses — the losses both came against France (1-2) and the Netherlands (1-2). So the two best teams in the group are the ones who have beaten Ireland. That context matters. They’ve beaten everyone else, but France specifically have their number in this campaign.
🚨Check out our dedicated France (W) vs Ireland (W) stats page for more info.
Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: France the Favourite
- Moneyline France (W) 1.14–1.15 | Ireland (W) 11.00–12.00
- Draw 6.25–6.30
- Over/Under Over 2.5 N/A | Under 2.5 N/A
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes N/A | No N/A
France at 1.14 is almost no-value territory for a straight win bet — the margin is too thin for the risk, especially given Ireland have beaten France before in this exact qualification cycle (3-1 in the Euro qualifier in 2024). Honestly, the draw at 6.25 is more intriguing than it looks on paper, because a stalemate sends France through and eliminates Ireland, so if the game reaches 1-1 in the 70th minute, France have zero incentive to push for a second. The BTTS + France win market is where we’d look for genuine value, assuming it prices around 2.50–3.00 at most books. Ireland’s 78% bookmaker implied probability for a France win feels accurate — but the way this game is set up, goals from both sides are more likely than the clean sheet merchants would have you believe.
Possible Starting Lineups
France (W) Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Constance Picaud
- DF: Selma Bacha, Thiniba Samoura, Maelle Lakrar, Alice Dauphine Sombath
- MF: Oriane Jean-François, Grace Geyoro, Sakina Karchaoui
- FW: Sandy Baltimore, Melvine Malard, Delphine Cascarino
Constance Picaud gets the nod in goal based on recent appearances, with Pauline Peyraud Magnin as the backup option. The back four picks itself given the data — Bacha and Samoura have been consistent presences in the last recorded match, with Lakrar and Dauphine Sombath completing the defensive line. Bonadei will likely deploy a 4-2-3-1 or a compact 4-3-3 depending on how aggressive Ireland start. Malard is the one to watch up front; her combination of pace and finishing makes her the most dangerous outlet France have when they transition. Karchaoui’s assist in the Poland game is a reminder that her deliveries from wide positions are a constant set-piece threat — useful against an Ireland side that defends crosses with mixed results.
Ireland (W) Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Courtney Brosnan
- DF: Megan Connolly, A. Mannion, Jessica Stapleton
- MF: Katie McCabe, Tyler Toland, Lucy Quinn
- FW: Abbie Larkin, Kyra Carusa, Amber Barrett
Brosnan is Ireland’s clear first-choice keeper and made three saves in the Netherlands win — she’ll need to be sharp again here. Katie McCabe anchors the midfield and provides the kind of pressing intensity that Vera Pauw’s system demands. The front three of Larkin, Carusa, and Barrett all scored in the last match, which is a rare and significant piece of data — that combination has momentum and shouldn’t be broken up. Ireland’s expected 4-2-3-1 will rely on Mannion’s ball-carrying from deep to trigger transitions, though her pass accuracy of 19/34 in the last match suggests she’ll need to be more selective in this game. A. Mannion covering ground and winning second balls will be a key factor in how much Ireland can disrupt France’s build-up.
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Ireland (W). Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
TipsGG Match Prediction
France go into this as clear favorites and the group standings back that up. Their pass volume, shot creation, and corner dominance across recent matches all point to a team that controls games rather than reacts to them. Ireland, though, are not here to park the bus — they’ve scored 9 goals in 5 group games and just knocked over the Netherlands. This will be an open match, maybe more open than the odds suggest.
We think France win, but Ireland score. The 2-1 scoreline from the first meeting in this campaign is a realistic template. France’s ability to generate 18 shots from a single match against a weaker side will be tested by Ireland’s more aggressive press, but their superior ball retention and set-piece threat (12 corners in the last match) should be enough to see them through. The corner market is a strong secondary angle — France’s wide play and volume of attempts into the box consistently generate set pieces, and with Ireland needing to push numbers forward, late corners for France become even more likely.
Our pick: France Win & Both Teams to Score, with Over 2.5 Goals as the supporting play.
