Rafael Nogueira
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Flamengo sit top of the table with 73 points from 33 games, nine clear of nearest challengers Palmeiras, and they bring that form home to the Maracanã against a Gremio side fighting to escape the bottom third. Leonardo Jardim’s squad has scored 68 goals this season, the most in the division, while Renato Gaúcho’s Gremio arrive 15th with a negative goal difference and two red cards picked up across their last five matches alone. The gap in table position mirrors the gap in recent discipline and attacking output, something the bookmakers have already priced in heavily toward the home side.
Samuel Lino has been directly involved in four goals across Flamengo’s last five matches and gives Jardim width and end product from either flank. On the other side, Carlos Vinícius leads Gremio’s attack with two goals in his last five outings and remains their most reliable outlet on the counter when the visitors sit deep at the Maracanã.
Hot stat: Gremio have picked up two red cards in their last five league matches while Flamengo have stayed spotless, a discipline gap that could prove costly against a Rubro-Negro side that thrives once the opposition drops to ten men.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Campeonato Brasileiro Série A 2026, Regular Season |
| 🏟 Venue: | Estádio do Maracanã, Rio de Janeiro |
| 🗓️ Date: | 05.11.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 00:30 CEST |
Flamengo RJ vs Gremio prediction
We predict Flamengo win this one comfortably, and with the moneyline priced so short at around 1.17, the better value sits on Flamengo to win by two or more goals, essentially an Asian Handicap of -1.5. Flamengo have scored three or more goals in three of their last five matches and Gremio travel with the division’s 15th-best defensive record. Backing the handicap rather than the flat moneyline protects against a single Gremio goal while still capturing the quality gap on show.
Flamengo’s passing numbers dwarf Gremio’s across the last five games, 2,960 attempted passes against 1,778, and their pass accuracy sits comfortably above the visitors too. Gremio foul more often (73 fouls to Flamengo’s 50) and that indiscipline, paired with two reds in five matches, suggests Renato Gaúcho’s side could again find themselves a man light before full time. Expect Flamengo to dominate territory and corners (they average more than eight per game compared to Gremio’s near seven) while Gremio look to break on the counter through Vinícius and Braithwaite.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Flamengo RJ -1.5 Asian Handicap |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Flamengo arrive off a 4-1 demolition of Vasco, a result that extended their run to four wins and a draw across the last five fixtures. Pedro, Samuel Lino and Gonzalo Plata have all scored twice over that stretch, and the 3-2 win away at Atletico Mineiro showed the side can win ugly as well as comfortably, even conceding first. The one blemish was a 2-3 home defeat to Estudiantes LP in continental play, a reminder that this defense can be got at when it switches off. In our preview of Vasco vs Flamengo RJ we called a Flamengo win with BTTS Yes as the pick that covered both the class gap and Vasco’s habit of scoring even in defeats, and the eventual 4-1 scoreline delivered on both counts.
Gremio’s most recent match was a tidy 2-0 home win over Atletico Mineiro, their third victory in the last five, sandwiched between a 2-0 win over Athletico PR and a 1-1 draw with Internacional. The alarming result in that run was a 2-4 home defeat to Cruzeiro, conceding four goals to a side ranked far below them, which exposes the same defensive fragility they will need to manage against Flamengo’s attack. In our preview of Gremio vs Athletico PR we leaned toward a draw or away win with goals at both ends, but Gremio won that one 2-0 with no goals conceded, meaning that call went against us.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Flamengo RJ | Gremio |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (last 5 meetings) | 8 | 5 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Flamengo RJ vs Gremio stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Flamengo RJ the favourite
- Moneyline Flamengo RJ 1.17 | Gremio 13.00
- Draw 7.00
The market gives Flamengo around an 80% implied chance of winning, which lines up with their home record and the quality difference in the squads. Odds above 12.00 on Gremio reflect how rarely they take points off top-four sides away from home this season, while the draw at 7.00 looks generous only if Flamengo have an off night in front of goal, something they have avoided in four of their last five outings.
Possible Starting Lineups
Flamengo RJ possible starting eleven
- GK: Agustín Rossi
- DF: Emerson Royal, Léo Pereira, Léo Ortiz, Alex Sandro
- MF: Erick Pulgar, Jorginho, Lucas Paquetá
- FW: Samuel Lino, Gonzalo Plata, Pedro
Jardim keeps faith with the 4-2-3-1 that has carried Flamengo to the top of the table. Pulgar and Jorginho shield the back four while Paquetá roams behind Pedro, with Lino and Plata offering width and the bulk of the chance creation. Pedro remains the focal point up top and the man most likely to punish a Gremio backline missing two of its regular centre-backs through cards.
Gremio possible starting eleven
- GK: Weverton Pereira da Silva
- DF: Marcos Rocha, Fabián Balbuena, Gustavo Martins, Marlon
- MF: Mathias Villasanti, Erick Noriega, Filip Krovinović
- FW: Francis Amuzu, Tetê, Carlos Vinícius
Renato Gaúcho mirrors the 4-2-3-1 shape, with Villasanti and Noriega holding in front of the back four and Krovinović linking play to Vinícius through the middle. Amuzu’s pace on the left is Gremio’s best route to a quick counter, and Vinícius needs to convert the few sights of goal he gets against a defense that rarely offers second chances.
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Gremio. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
The Verdict
We predict Flamengo settle this comfortably at home, perhaps by a 3-1 or 3-0 margin, built on their superior pass volume, shot numbers and the recent habit of punishing weaker defenses in bunches. Gremio’s two red cards in five matches and their 15th-place standing make a clean sheet unlikely, though Vinícius and Braithwaite carry enough threat to get on the scoresheet. Flamengo RJ to win with over 2.5 goals and BTTS Yes covers the most probable path through this fixture, to be honest the quality and discipline gap both point the same direction.
