Rafael Nogueira
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Gremio welcome Athletico PR to Arena do Grêmio with the home side sitting 17th in the table, just three points clear of the relegation zone, while the visitors arrive in third place and chasing the title picture. The two clubs met earlier in this same campaign and that fixture finished goalless, a result that hints at how tight this rivalry can get regardless of league position. Renato Gaúcho needs points fast, Odair Hellmann’s men travel with momentum and a defense that has conceded far less than Gremio’s leaky backline.
Cristian Pavón has been Gremio’s most dangerous outlet, leading the squad in shots across the last five matches and carrying the creative burden in a side short on confidence. Kevin Viveros is the man Athletico PR fans watch closest, three goals in his last five outings make him the division’s form striker heading into Porto Alegre.
Hot stat: Athletico PR have scored 7 goals across their last five matches against Gremio’s 5, while also out-shooting them 77-64 and winning the corner count 38-28, numbers that back up the gap in current form between third and 17th place.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Campeonato Brasileiro Série A 2026, Regular Season |
| 🏟 Venue: | Arena do Grêmio, Porto Alegre |
| 🗓️ Date: | 30.10.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 02:30 CEST |
Gremio vs Athletico PR prediction
We predict Athletico PR avoid defeat here, backing the Double Chance (Draw or Athletico PR) as the value angle. The bookmakers list Gremio as a narrow favourite purely on home soil, but the underlying picture favors the away side: better league position, stronger recent shot volume and a defense that has shipped fewer goals over the last month. Gremio’s home comfort keeps the market close, yet a side sitting 17th with only one win in four hardly looks like a side worth backing outright at these prices.
Gremio foul more often and pick up more cards, 61 fouls and 9 yellows in their last five compared to Athletico PR’s 54 fouls and 7 cards, a pattern that suggests a side chasing the game rather than controlling it. Athletico PR’s pass accuracy sits around 87% against Gremio’s 82%, and that extra composure on the ball tends to matter more away from home, where patience against a nervous crowd counts for something. Expect a scrappy opening half from the hosts and a more measured Athletico PR looking to pick their moments.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Double Chance: Draw or Athletico PR (X2) |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Gremio’s form has been shaky all month, two wins, one loss and two draws in their last four, and the last outing against Coritiba was a tight 1-0 victory built more on a single moment than sustained control. In our preview of Coritiba vs Gremio we called for Gremio to avoid defeat via Draw No Bet, alongside Under 2.5 and BTTS No, and the 1-0 scoreline delivered on every count. Before that they were beaten 2-4 by Cruzeiro, a game that exposed real problems at the back, and draws against Internacional, Remo and Palmeiras show a team that grinds out points rather than dominates matches.
Athletico PR have been steadier, one win, one loss, two draws in the last month, but the quality of results stands out more than the raw tally. Their most recent match was a 1-1 draw away at Vitoria. In our preview of Vitoria vs Athletico PR we backed Athletico PR to win or at worst take a point, with BTTS Yes and Kevin Viveros to score, and the 1-1 result delivered on the point and the goals both sides scored, even if Viveros didn’t get on the scoresheet that day. Before Vitoria they lost 0-2 to Palmeiras, then thrashed Chapecoense 4-1 and drew 2-2 with Atletico Mineiro, a run that shows a side capable of both control and occasional defensive lapses against stronger opposition.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Gremio | Athletico PR |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2 | 0 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Gremio vs Athletico PR stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Gremio the favourite
- Moneyline Gremio 2.40 | Athletico PR 2.82
- Draw 3.40
The bookmakers lean slightly toward Gremio purely due to home advantage, with Athletico PR priced as outright underdogs despite sitting 42 points clear of Gremio in the standings. That gap between market pricing and table reality is exactly why we see value on the away side’s Double Chance line. Perhaps the odds compilers are weighting Arena do Grêmio’s atmosphere a bit too heavily here.
Possible Starting Lineups
Gremio possible starting eleven
- GK: Weverton Pereira da Silva
- DF: Marlon, Walter Kannemann, Gustavo Martins, João Pedro
- MF: Mathias Villasanti, Danilo Barbosa da Silva
- MF: Filip Krovinović, Francis Amuzu, Cristian Pavón
- FW: Carlos Vinícius
Renato Gaúcho should stick with his usual 4-2-3-1, Villasanti and Danilo Barbosa shielding the back four while Pavón and Amuzu stretch play from wide areas. Carlos Vinícius leads the line on minutes played and should start up top, with Pavón the man most likely to create something out of nothing against a well-organized Athletico PR defense.
Athletico PR possible starting eleven
- GK: Mycael Pontes Moreira
- DF: Gilberto, Juan Aguirre, Arthur Dias
- MF: Jadson Alves dos Santos, Luiz Gustavo, João Victor Machado Cruz, Bruno Zapelli
- MF: Stiven Mendoza, Leonardo Caetano Silva
- FW: Kevin Viveros
Odair Hellmann’s 3-4-2-1 relies on Luiz Gustavo and Jadson Alves controlling midfield, both logging heavy minutes all month, while Mendoza and Leonardo Caetano Silva support Viveros from deeper positions. Viveros remains the clear focal point given his goal return over the last five matches, and his movement against a Gremio back four low on confidence could decide this one.
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Gremio. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
The Verdict
We predict Athletico PR leave Porto Alegre unbeaten, with Double Chance (Draw or Athletico PR) our core selection. Gremio’s defensive numbers, shot volume and table position all trail a visiting side playing with far more conviction right now. To be hones, a repeat of the earlier 0-0 between these two wouldn’t shock us, but we lean toward goals this time given both attacks have found the net in four of their combined last five matches. BTTS Yes and Over 2.5 goals round out our card, built on the idea that Gremio’s home need for points opens space for Athletico PR’s sharper attack to exploit on the counter.
