Levi Rothermund
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Augsburg welcome Freiburg to the WWK Arena with the visitors sitting third in the table and the hosts stuck mid-table, scraping by on draws more than wins. There’s an odd little wrinkle here though: both clubs have been leaking goals lately despite results that look decent on paper. Freiburg have lost three on the bounce in one recent stretch before bouncing back, while Augsburg’s last five games have produced goals at both ends almost every single time. This one has goals written all over it, we think, regardless of who takes the three points.
Keep an eye on Rodrigo Ribeiro for Augsburg. Three goals in four appearances is a sharp return for a forward who isn’t even guaranteed a full 90 every week, and his movement in behind has caused problems for stretched backlines. On the Freiburg side, Igor Matanović leads the line with the most shots of anyone in their squad over the last five matches, eleven free kicks won included, so his hold-up play and willingness to draw fouls near the box could be the difference in a tight game.
Hot stat: Freiburg have shipped three or more goals in two of their last five matches, including a 1-3 defeat to Bayern and a 0-3 loss to Monaco, yet they still sit third in the Bundesliga table on 13 points. That defensive fragility against sharp attacks is worth watching given Augsburg have scored in four of their own last five outings.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Bundesliga 2026/27, Regular Season |
| 🏟 Venue: | WWK Arena, Augsburg |
| 🗓️ Date: | 31.10.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 15:30 CEST |
FC Augsburg vs Freiburg prediction
We lean toward Freiburg winning this, but not comfortably. The bookmakers already have Freiburg favourites near 44% versus Augsburg’s 32%, and the underlying numbers back that gap up: Freiburg have won four of their last seven games in a month where Augsburg have managed just one win in five. Our pick is Freiburg to win with both teams scoring, something in the range of 2-1 or 3-2 given how porous both backlines have looked recently.
Style-wise, Freiburg rack up more fouls (54 vs 45 over the last five games) and pick up more yellow cards too (8 vs 7), which tends to happen when a side presses higher and commits bodies forward, exactly what their 2454 total passes versus Augsburg’s 1876 suggests. Augsburg sit deeper and look to break quickly, which explains why their shot count (87) is actually higher than Freiburg’s (79) despite having far less of the ball. That contrast, patient possession against direct counters, usually produces an open game, and that’s exactly what we’re expecting here.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Freiburg to win & BTTS Yes |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Augsburg’s recent run reads as inconsistent more than bad. Three draws and a loss sandwiched around a win over Hertha Berlin and a wild 4-2 victory against Grossaspach tell the story of a team that can score but struggles to keep clean sheets. Their last outing against Grossaspach saw them concede twice while putting four past a side that had been leaking goals all season, hardly a statement win but a confidence boost nonetheless. In our preview of Grossaspach vs FC Augsburg we called a two-goal-plus Augsburg win with goals at both ends, and the 4-2 scoreline delivered exactly that.
Freiburg’s picture is more mixed than their table position suggests. Three straight defeats against Monaco, Bayern Munich and Bayer Leverkusen hit hard, before a 3-2 win over Wolfsburg steadied the ship last time out. That Wolfsburg game showed both the good (sharp finishing from Matanović and Goto) and the bad (two goals conceded against a side that isn’t exactly prolific). In our preview of Freiburg vs Wolfsburg we backed a Freiburg win with goals at both ends, and the 3-2 result landed just as we called it.
🚨Check out our dedicated FC Augsburg vs Freiburg stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Freiburg the favourite
- Moneyline FC Augsburg 3.10 | Freiburg 2.15
- Draw 3.80
The market has Freiburg clear favourites, and honestly that tracks with their position in the table and the quality gap between the two squads this season. Augsburg’s price around 3.10 feels fair rather than generous though, given how often they’ve found the net lately. We wouldn’t be shocked by a draw given Augsburg’s habit of drawing three of their last five, but Freiburg’s superior attacking numbers should edge it in the end.
Possible Starting Lineups
FC Augsburg possible starting eleven
- GK: Finn Gilbert Dahmen
- DF: Hennes Behrens, Chrislain Matsima, Juma Bah, Seol Young-woo
- MF: Han-Noah Massengo, Fabian Rieder, Robin Fellhauer, Arijon Ibrahimovic, Anton Kade
- FW: Rodrigo Ribeiro
Baum should stick with the 4-2-3-1 that’s been used throughout the last five matches. Behrens and Matsima have played every minute available and anchor the back line, while Ribeiro gets the nod up top purely on goal output, three in four games is hard to ignore even if his minutes have been limited. Rieder’s range of passing from midfield will be key to getting the ball forward quickly against a Freiburg side that likes to press.
Freiburg possible starting eleven
- GK: Mio Backhaus
- DF: Matthias Ginter, Lukas Kübler, Maximilian Rosenfelder, Philipp Treu
- MF: Maximilian Eggestein, Patrick Osterhage, Yuito Suzuki, Vincenzo Grifo, Jan-Niklas Beste
- FW: Igor Matanović
Schuster’s men also run a 4-2-3-1, with Eggestein and Osterhage shielding the back four while Grifo drifts inside from the left to link play. Matanović leads the line and his willingness to draw fouls near the box, eleven free kicks won in five games, gives Freiburg a steady source of set-piece chances against an Augsburg side that concedes plenty of fouls itself.
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Freiburg. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
TipsGG Match Prediction
We’re backing Freiburg to edge this one, maybe 2-1 or 3-2, with goals expected at both ends given how both defenses have performed over their last five matches combined. Augsburg’s draw-heavy form makes a stalemate a live possibility too, but Freiburg’s superior shot numbers, pass accuracy and overall squad depth should tell in the final third. Our punters team isn’t expecting a classic, but the over 2.5 goals and BTTS yes combination looks like the smarter route into this fixture rather than chasing the straight win alone.
