Levi Rothermund
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Freiburg welcome Wolfsburg to the Europa-Park-Stadion for a Round 2 DFB Pokal tie that looks straightforward on paper but carries a few wrinkles underneath. Freiburg arrive on the back of three straight losses, though all three came against Bayern Munich, Monaco and Bayer Leverkusen, hardly a run that should dent confidence against a mid-table Bundesliga rival. Wolfsburg, meanwhile, have gone five without defeat, but that streak was built against far softer opposition. Cup football has a habit of punishing teams who read too much into form against weaker sides, and honestly, that’s the subplot worth watching here.
Vincenzo Grifo remains the player who tilts games for Freiburg, his set-piece quality already producing a goal and an assist in the last five matches. For Wolfsburg, Muhammed Damar has quietly been their most productive attacker, with two goals, an assist and a team-high 14 shots over the same stretch. Both deserve close attention once the ball is in the final third.
Hot stat: Wolfsburg have found the net in every single one of their last five matches, racking up 17 goals across that run, a number that should worry a Freiburg defense that has shipped at least two goals in each of its last three outings.
| 🏆 Tournament: | DFB Pokal 2026/27, Round 2 |
| 🏟 Venue: | Europa-Park-Stadion, Freiburg |
| 🗓️ Date: | 28.10.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 19:00 CEST |
Freiburg vs Wolfsburg prediction
We’re leaning Freiburg here, but not blindly. The bookmakers price them as heavy favorites around 1.40-1.45, and the underlying numbers back that up. Despite the recent skid, Freiburg have faced three of Europe’s sharper sides in a row. Against domestic company like Wolfsburg, their home record and squad depth should tell.
Freiburg’s fouling and discipline numbers (54 fouls, 7 yellows across five games) sit above Wolfsburg’s (48 fouls, 9 yellows), which is a touch surprising given Wolfsburg’s physical reputation. Freiburg also dominate possession metrics, completing over 2370 passes compared to Wolfsburg’s 1451, at a noticeably sharper accuracy rate. That ball control, paired with a corner count nearly 50% higher than Wolfsburg’s, suggests Freiburg should control territory even if their finishing has gone cold lately.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Freiburg win both halves |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Freiburg’s last outing ended 1-3 against Bayern Munich, a defeat that extended their rough patch to three games. Before that it was 0-3 against Monaco and 1-2 against Bayer Leverkusen. The common thread is quality opposition, not a collapse in form. Two wins over Jablonec and Schalke 04 sit just before that stretch, showing the base level remains solid against teams closer to Wolfsburg’s level. In our preview of Freiburg vs Bayern Munich we backed Bayern to win while both sides found the net, and the eventual 1-3 result delivered exactly that call.
Wolfsburg’s most recent match was a 1-1 draw with Bochum, part of a five-game unbeaten run that also includes wins over Heidenheim (3-1), Havelse (4-1) and Darmstadt 98 (5-1), plus a wild 4-4 draw with Nürnberg. The attacking output has been loud, 17 goals in five games, but the opponents have mostly been lower-tier or cup-fodder sides. That context matters heavily when facing a club ranked as high as Freiburg.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Freiburg | Wolfsburg |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (last 4 meetings) | 9 | 6 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Freiburg vs Wolfsburg stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Freiburg the favourite
- Moneyline Freiburg 1.43 | Wolfsburg 5.90
- Draw 4.70
The market is clear on this one. Freiburg sit around 65% implied probability compared to Wolfsburg’s 16%, a gap that lines up with the quality difference between a top-half Bundesliga club and a side that’s spent its recent form beating weaker opposition. We think the price on Freiburg is fair, maybe even slightly generous given the cup setting and home advantage.
Possible Starting Lineups
Freiburg possible starting eleven
- GK: Mio Backhaus
- DF: Christian Günter, Matthias Ginter, Philipp Lienhart, Lukas Kübler
- MF: Maximilian Eggestein, Patrick Osterhage
- FW: Vincenzo Grifo, Jan-Niklas Beste, Lucas Höler, Igor Matanović
Schuster should stick with the 4-2-3-1 that’s carried his side all season. Backhaus has started every recent game and gives nothing away. Eggestein and Osterhage shield the back four, freeing Grifo to dictate from the right and set pieces. Matanović leads the line and has been the busiest shooter in the squad lately, worth watching for an early chance against a leakier Wolfsburg backline.
Wolfsburg possible starting eleven
- GK: Jakub Zielinski
- DF: Kilian Fischer, Hauke Wahl, Mathys Angély, Joakim Maehle
- MF: Maximilian Arnold, Vinicius de Souza Costa
- FW: Muhammed Damar, Alexander Bernhardsson, Fabian Reese, Robert Glatzel
Strobl mirrors Freiburg’s 4-2-3-1 setup. Arnold’s experience anchors the midfield alongside Vinicius, while Damar’s directness off the right could cause problems on the counter. Glatzel leads the attack, but given how often Freiburg are likely to dominate the ball, Wolfsburg may need quick transitions more than sustained pressure to get anything out of this tie.
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Wolfsburg. Source: Official Website
TipsGG Match Prediction
Our punters team sees Freiburg moving through this round, maybe not comfortably given how cold their finishing has run lately, but comfortably enough on quality alone. Wolfsburg’s unbeaten streak looks shinier than it really is once you check the opposition they built it against. We’re backing a Freiburg win with goals at both ends, something like 3-1 or 2-1 wouldn’t surprise us at all, and with Freiburg’s corner numbers running well above Wolfsburg’s, the over on total corners feels like solid value too.
