Empoli vs Genoa Prediction: 25.09.2025 Coppa Italia

Rarely does a Coppa Italia second-round tie offer such a compelling blend of storylines as Empoli and Genoa renewing their rivalry at the Carlo Castellani. Both sides arrive with something to prove: Empoli, after a mixed run, are desperate to turn home comforts into cup momentum, while Patrick Vieira’s Genoa, despite a more promising pedigree and attacking promise, have failed to notch a win in their past four outings. The subtext? Recent draws in Serie A head-to-heads add another twist to this cup chess match.

Key faces to watch include Empoli’s livewire forward Bogdan Popov, whose sharp movement in the final third has been a rare bright spot, and Genoa’s midfield engine Mikael Ellertsson, whose tireless running and recent goal mark him as the visitors’ not-so-secret weapon in transitions. As battle lines are drawn, both men will be integral to dictating the game’s tempo and, potentially, its outcome.

Statistically, Genoa edge Empoli in recent attacking output, boasting 29 shots to Empoli’s 22 across their last five, while also pulling in 13 corners against Empoli’s 9. Could set-piece prowess tip the scales?

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Empoli vs Genoa prediction

The best value pick for this Coppa Italia meeting is Genoa Draw No Bet. Genoa, boasting higher possession (783 passes to Empoli’s 715 in the last five—suggesting they can control the midfield), and an attacking impetus reflected in their superior shot volume and number of corners, have the quality to get over the line even away from home. Yet, their recent winless run in all competitions tempers outright confidence, especially against an Empoli side who can be stubborn on home soil.

Expect a physically competitive game: both teams have shown a willingness to commit fouls (Empoli 58, Genoa 46 over the last five) and collect bookings. Genoa’s preference for a 3-4-2-1 means they’ll seek width and crossing opportunities—a factor supported by their higher corner count. Empoli’s shape (4-2-3-1) should offer them some midfield bite, but with lower accuracy on passing and less attacking thrust, they might struggle for clear-cut chances. This could well turn cagey for stretches, with set pieces and transitions dictating the rhythm.

Team Analysis

Empoli Recent Games:
Pagliuca’s Empoli have endured a rollercoaster spell—peppered with a humbling 0-4 home loss to Pescara and a couple of encouraging yet inconsistent results, including draws and a solitary victory over Padova. Defensive frailties were laid bare in their last outing, as an energetic Pescara side ran riot, exploiting Empoli’s lapses in organisation and transition. Even their 1-1 with Spezia showed Empoli’s penchant for conceding under late pressure, their defensive stats lagging in both interceptions and overall discipline.

Genoa Recent Games:
Under Vieira, Genoa’s slickness in midfield hasn’t fully translated into scoreboard dominance, but their narrow 1-2 home defeat to Bologna and resolute 1-1 against Como revealed doggedness and adaptability. A goalless draw with Lecce created some frustration but underscored the side’s discipline—no red cards in the past five—and ability to restrict opposition chances. While goals have been hard to come by, their consistent creation of opportunities (most notably outshooting opponents regularly) hints at improvement just beneath the surface.

Most recent Head-to-Head Matches

🚨Read our full Empoli vs Genoa stats for more analysis.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Empoli the favourite

• Moneyline Empoli 6.25 | Genoa 1.50
• Draw 3.85
• Over/Under Over 2.5 2.10 | Under 2.5 1.66
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 1.78 | No 1.92

Despite Empoli’s home venue, the bookmakers have installed them as outsiders—understandable given their 25 percent win rate in the last month and a leaky backline. Genoa’s shorter odds reflect their squad quality and Vieira’s ability to draw tighter performances from his men, even if wins have eluded them recently. The sharpest value, then, lies with Genoa on the Draw No Bet market, anticipating Empoli to make life difficult but ultimately to lack the finishing craft required.

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Possible Starting Lineups

Empoli possible starting eleven

Pagliuca is expected to maintain Empoli’s tried and tested 4-2-3-1, aiming for stability at the back and quick transitions through Elia and Yepes. Popov’s intelligence in movement and recent goal form makes him the focal point. Lovato anchors the back four, but curbing defensive lapses remains vital.

Genoa possible starting eleven

Vieira will likely stick with a 3-4-2-1 to maximise Genoa’s wide threat and midfield dominance. Ellertsson’s energy alongside Malinovskyi’s passing vision is fundamental, while Ekuban’s physicality round out the attack. Watch for Masini’s pressing and set-piece involvement—an x-factor in Genoa’s approach.

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My take on the Match

Genoa get the nod for progression, but not without working for it. Their higher technical ceiling, defensive steadiness, and tactical flexibility should tell in a tie likely decided by narrow margins—think set pieces and brief spells of pressure, rather than open, end-to-end football. With Empoli’s struggles in both boxes and Genoa’s desire to make a deep Coppa Italia run under Vieira, the visitors shade this one, ideally without conceding. For punters, Genoa Draw No Bet and Under 2.5 goals stand as the shrewdest picks in what could be a classic nip-tuck, all-Italian cup tussle.

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