Sofia Quijada
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Rayo Vallecano open their home account in La Liga 2026/27 on the back of a 1-2 defeat to Sevilla on matchday one, while Alavés arrive at Estadio de Vallecas riding a 3-0 opening-day win over Getafe. The early-season form gap between these two sides is real, and the bookmakers reflect it, but Rayo’s home record against Alavés tells a different story: they have won four of the last five competitive meetings at this ground. That historical edge is the key tension heading into Thursday night.
Two players stand out on opposite sides. For Alavés, Mariano Díaz registered a goal and two assists in just 33 minutes in the Getafe win, an output that signals he enters this match in sharp form and poses an immediate threat any time he comes off the bench or starts. For Rayo, Álvaro García was the only player to find the net in their opening loss to Sevilla and remains the most direct attacking outlet Beñat San José has available.
Alavés recorded 18 total shots across their last five matches compared to Rayo’s 6, a three-to-one shot volume advantage that underlines just how much the visitors have outperformed their opponents in recent weeks.
| 🏆 Tournament: | La Liga 2026/2027, Regular Season |
| 🏟 Venue: | Estadio de Vallecas, Madrid |
| 🗓️ Date: | 20.08.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 21:00 CEST |
Rayo Vallecano vs Alavés Prediction
Rayo’s home dominance in this fixture is the strongest argument for backing them, but their recent form is genuinely poor. One win in five matches over the last 30 days, combined with a low shot volume and just one goal in their last outing, makes it hard to see them producing a convincing performance. Alavés, by contrast, have not lost in their last five matches and have scored in four of those five games.
The head-to-head history leans Rayo at home, but the current momentum belongs entirely to Alavés. We predict Alavés to score, and Rayo’s attacking output is too limited right now to feel confident about them netting multiple times. A low-scoring match where Alavés grab at least one goal looks the most grounded outcome. The best value bet is Alavés Double Chance (Draw or Alavés Win), which captures both the visitors’ form and the possibility that Rayo’s home advantage keeps the result tight.
Rayo averaged 18 fouls across their last five matches, a high figure that reflects a physical, aggressive defensive approach. Alavés sit slightly lower at 16 fouls per match but accumulate yellow cards at the same rate (4 each). Rayo’s pass accuracy stands at 245 compared to Alavés’ 287, meaning the visitors are more comfortable in possession and better equipped to control tempo. That possession edge should allow Alavés to dictate the pace, reducing Rayo’s ability to build sustained pressure. The corner count also favors Alavés, 5 to 2 over their last five games, suggesting they create more wide-area pressure and set-piece opportunities.
| 🔥 Hot Tip: | Alavés Double Chance (Draw or Alavés Win) |
| ⚽ Total Goals: | Under 2.5 |
| 💥 Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯 Total Corners: | Over 4.5 |
Team Analysis
Rayo Vallecano have managed just one win in their last five matches, with three losses and a draw filling out a difficult recent run. Their most recent game was a 1-2 home defeat to Sevilla on matchday one of La Liga, where Álvaro García got them on the scoresheet but they could not find an equalizer. Before that, they fell 0-3 to Ipswich in what was a heavy loss, and also lost 1-2 to Hearts. The 3-2 win over Charleroi and a 1-1 draw with Feyenoord represent the brighter moments, but those results came against sides well outside the top tier of European competition. Rayo’s shot volume is concerning, only 6 total shots across their last five matches, and their 20% win rate in the last 30 days confirms a team currently short of confidence.
Alavés have been the more impressive side recently. Three wins, zero losses, and two draws across their last five matches give them a 60% win rate over the past 30 days. Their latest fixture was a commanding 3-0 win over Getafe in the La Liga opener, with Mariano Díaz and Nahuel Tenaglia among the scorers. Prior to that, they drew 1-1 with Racing Santander, beat Castellón 3-0, edged Girona 1-0, and drew 1-1 with Eibar. The variety of opponents shows they can handle different levels of competition, and their shot volume of 18 across recent games shows they generate chances consistently. Quique Sánchez Flores has his side well organized defensively and productive going forward.
Most Recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Rayo Vallecano | Alavés |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 6 | 3 |
🚨 Check out our dedicated Rayo Vallecano vs Alavés stats page for more info.
Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: Rayo Vallecano the Favourite
- Moneyline Rayo Vallecano 2.26 | Alavés 3.57
- Draw 3.02
- Over/Under Over 2.5 N/A | Under 2.5 N/A
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes N/A | No N/A
The bookmakers price Rayo as slight favorites at around 2.26, largely on the strength of home advantage and their historical record in this fixture. Alavés at 3.57 looks genuinely attractive given their current form. A 27% implied probability for a side that has won three of their last five and arrived off a 3-0 win feels undervalued. The draw at 3.02 reflects the genuine uncertainty here, and given Rayo’s defensive solidity at home in this specific matchup, it is not a price to ignore either. To be honest, the Alavés moneyline offers the most interesting value on this board.
Possible Starting Lineups
Rayo Vallecano Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Augusto Batalla
- DF: Ivan Balliu, Florian Lejeune, Pathé Ciss, Andrei Rațiu
- MF: Óscar Valentín, Unai López, Jorge De Frutos, Randy Nteka
- FW: Álvaro García, Isi Palazón
Rayo look set to line up in a 4-2-3-1 shape, their preferred formation across recent matches. Augusto Batalla started the Sevilla game and is the clear first-choice goalkeeper. Pathé Ciss and Florian Lejeune anchor the center of defense, with Ivan Balliu and Andrei Rațiu providing width from fullback. Unai López and Óscar Valentín form the double pivot, and Álvaro García is the player to watch, having scored in the last match and operating as the primary attacking threat from the left channel.
Alavés Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Antonio Sivera
- DF: Jonny Otto, Ville Koski, Nahuel Tenaglia, Youssef Enriquez
- MF: Antonio Blanco, Pablo Ibáñez Lumbreras, Denis Suárez, Abderrahmane Rebbach
- FW: Toni Martínez, Angel Pérez Hidalgo
Alavés also favor a 4-2-3-1 setup. Antonio Sivera is the established starter in goal. Ville Koski impressed with 54 passes and strong defensive composure against Getafe, and Nahuel Tenaglia pushed forward to score, making him a threat from right back. Antonio Blanco covers ground effectively in midfield despite picking up a yellow card in the last match. Mariano Díaz, who produced a goal and two assists in 33 minutes against Getafe, could start or come off the bench as an impact option, and Quique Sánchez Flores will be tempted to give him more minutes here.
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Alaves. Source: Official Website
TipsGG Match Prediction
Rayo Vallecano’s home record against Alavés is a legitimate factor, four wins from the last five meetings at Vallecas, but the current gap in form is too wide to ignore. Rayo have scored just one goal in their last two matches, their shot output is the lowest of any team in this analysis, and they lost their La Liga opener at home. Alavés come in with three clean sheets across five games, strong possession numbers, and a striker in Mariano Díaz who is in the kind of form that changes matches in short bursts.
We predict Alavés to win or draw this match. The visitors’ defensive organization, superior ball retention, and attacking output make them the more dangerous side on current evidence. Rayo’s home advantage and historical record keep this from being a straightforward call, but backing Alavés on the Double Chance market at the available odds reflects both the form and the value. Under 2.5 goals also looks well-supported given Rayo’s limited attacking output and Alavés’ disciplined defensive shape.
