Liam Duckstein
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Cyprus welcome Latvia back to the GSP Stadium just days after the two sides shared a goalless draw in this same Nations League window. That earlier stalemate left both camps short on points in League C Group 2, and this rematch arrives with Cyprus sat second in the table while Latvia prop up the bottom with a single point from three games.
Apostolos Mantzios watched his Cyprus side beat Armenia 2-0 last time out, a result that lifted the mood in Nicosia considerably. Paolo Nicolato, meanwhile, is still searching for his first win since taking charge of Latvia, who have now lost two of their last three outings. This is less a classic Nations League derby and more a case of one team building momentum against one trying to stop the bleeding.
Marcus Edwards has been Cyprus’s sharpest attacking weapon across the last five matches, contributing a goal and seven free kicks won while racking up 18 shots, the highest volume on the roster. Ioannis Pittas pairs well alongside him with an assist and strong involvement in the final third. For Latvia, Vladislavs Gutkovskis remains the focal point up front with seven shots in his last four appearances, though his two yellow cards in that span hint at a player under pressure to deliver.
Hot stat: Latvia have managed just one goal from 35 shots across their last five matches, a conversion rate that explains why Nicolato’s side sits bottom of the group despite not being blown out defensively.
| 🏆 Tournament: | UEFA Nations League 2026/27, League C Group 2 |
| 🏟 Venue: | GSP Stadium, Nicosia |
| 🗓️ Date: | 05.10.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 18:00 CEST |
Cyprus vs Latvia prediction
We predict Cyprus to win this one, and the case is fairly straightforward once the numbers are laid side by side. Cyprus have scored three goals and fired 55 shots across their last five fixtures compared to Latvia’s single goal from 35 attempts. Home advantage at the GSP Stadium, where Cyprus have been considerably more productive than on the road, tips this further in their favor.
Cyprus commit more fouls on average (37 across the sample versus Latvia’s 51, interestingly reversed, meaning Latvia are actually the more combative side defensively) and carry more yellow cards too, at 11 compared to Latvia’s 5. That suggests a physical edge from Latvia without the discipline to match, which could easily open up set-piece opportunities for Cyprus, whose pass accuracy sits near 85% against Latvia’s 82%. Neither gap is enormous, but Cyprus look the sharper, more clinical side in possession.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Cyprus to win both halves |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Cyprus arrive on the back of a 2-0 win over Armenia that showcased exactly the attacking patterns Mantzios has been building, patient build-up through Kastanos in midfield before releasing Edwards and Pittas into space. In our preview of Cyprus vs Armenia we leaned toward Armenia avoiding defeat and a tighter finish, and to be honest the 2-0 scoreline went against that read, Cyprus were the more clinical side on the day. Before that, Cyprus drew blank against Latvia and lost narrowly to Montenegro, so the current win represents a clear uptick in form heading into this rematch.
Latvia’s last outing ended in a 1-2 defeat to Montenegro, a result that continued a rough stretch for Nicolato’s side. In our preview of Latvia vs Montenegro we predicted a Montenegro win, and that call landed, though the margin came in tighter at a single goal rather than the two-goal gap we expected, with Latvia managing to get on the scoresheet themselves. Perhaps that goal offers a sliver of encouragement, but Latvia have now lost two of their last three and drawn the other, leaving them without a win in their last six matches overall.
🚨Check out our dedicated Cyprus vs Latvia stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Cyprus the favourite
- Moneyline Cyprus 1.70 | Latvia 4.85
- Draw 3.70
Bookmakers have Cyprus as clear favourites here, and the gap between home and away odds reflects the form disparity accurately. A draw price above 3.60 feels generous given Cyprus beat Armenia comfortably in their last outing, and our punters team sees value fading on backing Latvia at anything close to 4.80 given how blunt their attack has looked recently.
Possible Starting Lineups
Cyprus possible starting eleven
- GK: Fabiano
- DF: Nikolas Panagiotou, Giorgos Malekkidis, Kostas Pileas, Leonidas Konomis, Konstantinos Sotiriou
- MF: Grigoris Kastanos, Hector Kyprianou, Kostakis Artymatas
- FW: Ioannis Pittas, Marcus Edwards
Mantzios should stick with the 5-3-2 shape that has carried Cyprus through the last five matches. Fabiano has started every game in goal and brings composure in build-up, while Edwards and Pittas form a front two capable of punishing a Latvian defense that has looked shaky against weaker opposition lately.
Latvia possible starting eleven
- GK: Rihards Matrevics
- DF: Andrejs Cigāniks, Antonijs Černomordijs, Deniss Meļņiks, Dennis Cirkin
- MF: Dmitrijs Zelenkovs, Lukass Vapne, Eduards Emsis, Markuss Strods, Kristers Cudars
- FW: Roberts Uldriķis
Nicolato’s 4-2-3-1 leans on Vapne and Zelenkovs to shield the back four, both strong interceptors based on recent output. Uldriķis gets the nod as the lone striker thanks to his shot volume, but he will need far more service than Latvia have provided lately if he is to trouble Cyprus.
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Latvia. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
The Verdict
We predict a comfortable night for Cyprus against a Latvian side still searching for answers in attack. The shot numbers, the home advantage, and the momentum from a recent win over Armenia all point the same direction. Latvia’s defense has conceded sensibly against the top sides in this group, but their inability to score creates a lopsided match where Cyprus should control possession and chances throughout. Our punters team expects a 2-0 or 3-0 finish in Nicosia, with Latvia’s long winless run extending into a seventh match without victory.
Read also: Cyprus vs Latvia Team News and Predicted Lineups: Who Starts?
