Crystal Palace vs Burnley Prediction: 11.02.2026 English Premier League

As the English Premier League surges into its crucial winter stretch, Selhurst Park readies for a contest with distinctly different undertones: Crystal Palace, seeking to anchor mid-table ambitions, host a Burnley side embroiled in a stubborn fight for survival. Beneath the surface of an apparent mismatch, both managers – Oliver Glasner and Scott Parker – are searching for elusive consistency, and the 2025/26 season’s data tells of teams whose fortunes pivot on the smallest margins.
While neither side can tout blistering recent form, there’s compelling intrigue: Palace’s well-drilled midfield and attacking dynamism sparks just as Burnley’s scrappy resilience and steady defensive framework start to gel. Expect fine margins, individual duels, and the emotional churn football always delivers.
Among the key protagonists, Palace’s creative conduit Yeremy Pino will be one to watch – he not only offers penetration from wide areas but is equally influential as a chance creator. Meanwhile, Burnley’s industrious Marcus Edwards, fresh from a morale-boosting goal, remains the Clarets’ most reliable spark in the attacking third.
Let’s not overlook a “hot stat”: Palace have managed 19 corners in their last five matches, nearly doubling Burnley’s tally – an edge that might well define set-piece exchanges in this encounter.

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Crystal Palace vs Burnley prediction

The hard data and the eye test both tilt this fixture in Crystal Palace’s favour, and not just because of home advantage. Palace have shown clearer attacking intent – outshooting Burnley and creating more from set-pieces – while their fluid 4-2-3-1 formation adapts well to in-game shifts. Glasner’s robust midfield, in particular, faces a Burnley side still struggling to dictate tempo and prone to lapses against teams who sustain width and tempo.
Burnley’s 3-4-2-1 system, featuring a reinforced back three, has provided modest defensive improvements, but the Clarets have found goals hard to come by, and their away form leaves much to be desired (just one away win all season). Add in Burnley’s consistently higher foul count and recent vulnerability at defending corners, and the Eagles’ path to three points grows clearer.
Palace’s disciplined pressing game, coupled with superior passing accuracy (eclipsing Burnley by over 2% in recent matches), should choke off Burnley’s transitions, while the hosts’ threat at corners and second balls is well set to exploit the visitors’ frailties.
Expect a scrappy, bitty match: a handful of bookings (as both rack up over two yellow cards per outing), but a Palace victory to steady their campaign. Ultimately, Palace’s quality in wide positions and on set-pieces will be the difference.

Team Analysis

Crystal Palace:
Palace’s recent patchwork form is deceptive; the Eagles claimed a well-earned 1-0 victory over Brighton last time out, showcasing their increasingly steadfast defensive structure and set-piece guile. Glasner’s men have alternated between grit (a 1-1 draw with Nottingham Forest) and the frustrations of missed opportunities (narrow defeats to Chelsea and Sunderland).
The Brighton match highlighted the value of direct attacking play and energetic pressing from midfielders like Jefferson Lerma and Will Hughes. Notably, Palace managed to limit Brighton’s attacking lanes while winning the corner battle – a pattern mirrored across their last five matches (4 goals, 19 corners). That resilience – laced with flashes of dynamism from Ismaila Sarr and Yeremy Pino – underscores why Palace are just outside the top half despite only one win in their last five.

Burnley:
For Scott Parker’s Burnley, there is the familiar sting of inconsistency, but also flickers of hope. The 2-2 away draw at Tottenham suggested the Clarets still have a puncher’s chance: defensively sound in phases, yet all too easily undone by direct attacks and the pace of Premier League transitions. A disappointing 0-3 loss at Sunderland and 0-2 at home to West Ham were reminders of just how fragile Burnley’s resolve can be when stretched.
Still, Burnley have demonstrated a combative streak – notably, the 1-1 draw against Liverpool saw midfielders Lesley Ugochukwu and Florentino Luís disrupt play and break up attacks. Yet Burnley have only scored three goals in their last five matches, with reliance on individual moments from Marcus Edwards and Lyle Foster. Defensive lapses (evident in their nine conceded goals in five) remain the Achilles’ heel.

Most recent Head-to-Head Matches

🚨Read our full Crystal Palace vs Burnley stats for more analysis.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Crystal Palace the favourite

• Moneyline Crystal Palace 1.60 | Burnley 6.10
• Draw 4.16
• Over/Under Over 2.5 2.15 | Under 2.5 1.85
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 2.14 | No 1.65

Bookmakers rightfully mark Crystal Palace as clear favourites with odds as low as 1.54 on the win – their attacking data, home venue edge, and Burnley’s frailties all back this up. The draw sits in the mid-fours, reflecting Burnley’s slight uptick in defensive rigidity yet limitations in attack. Value on Burnley is high, but their low probability (just 17 percent by models) and lack of away-day steel make even long odds feel optimistic. Under 2.5 goals and BTTS ‘No’ hold value considering both teams’ conservative recent trends and Burnley’s difficulty breaking down organised defences.

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Possible Starting Lineups

Crystal Palace possible starting eleven

Expect Glasner to stick with his trusted 4-2-3-1, fronting Henderson in goal and a back-four bolstered by Richards’ aerial prowess and Mitchell’s clever positioning. In midfield, Lerma’s relentless pressing pairs well with the creative mettle of Hughes and Wharton, while the trio of Sarr, Pino, and Wharton drift between lines, feeding Mateta up top. Key men to watch are Yeremy Pino (for penetration and creativity) and Ismaila Sarr (direct runs will trouble Burnley’s full-backs). This line-up maximises Palace’s set-piece threat, as recent corner numbers suggest, while maintaining defensive discipline.

Burnley possible starting eleven

Parker’s likely to roll out his now-familiar 3-4-2-1, with Dúbravka offering composure behind a flexible three-man defence that includes Esteve and Humphreys. In midfield, Walker’s recovery pace and Ugochukwu’s physicality anchor the side, while the creative burden will again fall on Edwards and Anthony buzzing behind Foster. Set pieces may again be Burnley’s undoing, as width is often surrendered, but if Edwards gets isolated against Palace’s full-backs, there’s always an upset brewing. The overall line-up rewards recent appearances, and Burnley’s midfield sustainability is critical to remaining competitive.

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My take on the Match

Crystal Palace look primed to take a vital three points at Selhurst Park, edging them further away from the drop zone and possibly into the top half of the table. All signs – squad depth, attacking invention, and the pressure that comes with home support – align in their favour.
Burnley’s effort and athleticism can’t be discounted, and they’ll keep things honest defensively, but their woes in scoring and defending set-pieces are persistent. If Palace’s wide men find their rhythm and continue to win corners at their recent clip, the Clarets are at real risk.
Main pick: Palace to win, possibly to nil, and to do so by asserting control early and profiting from set-piece dominance. The journey of both sides takes divergent paths – and at this point in the campaign, Palace’s trajectory looks notably brighter.

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