Sofia Quijada
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Croatia welcome Spain to Poljud carrying the scars of a 0-7 collapse against England, while Luis de la Fuente’s side sit top of Group 3 with a maximum nine points from three games. The teams met barely a week ago in the group opener and Spain won 1-4 on the road, a result that tells you most of what you need to know about the gap between these two squads right now. Croatia have not beaten Spain in their last three meetings across competitions, and that run looks likely to stretch further given the form both sides carry into Split.
Lamine Yamal has been the standout performer across the Nations League window so far, scoring six goals in his last five appearances and dragging Spain’s attack forward almost single-handedly at times. Luka Modrić remains Croatia’s one reliable source of creativity, still leading the squad in key passes despite his side’s defensive collapse, and Bilic will need him to dictate tempo if Croatia hope to stay competitive for even an hour.
Hot stat: Spain have scored 14 goals in their last five matches while Croatia have managed just 4, and Croatia conceded 12 of those in their own fixtures against England and Spain alone over the last two matchdays.
| 🏆 Tournament: | UEFA Nations League 2026/27, League A Group 3 |
| 🏟 Venue: | Stadion Poljud, Split |
| 🗓️ Date: | 06.10.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 20:45 CEST |
Croatia vs Spain prediction
We predict Spain to win comfortably, and the smarter way to back that view is an Asian handicap of Spain -1.5 rather than the bare moneyline, which pays little at current prices. Spain have won nine of their eleven matches this year and arrive fresh off a 3-1 win over Czech Republic, while Croatia sit bottom-but-one in the group with a goal difference of minus nine after three rounds. The quality gap on paper and on the pitch points firmly one way.
Spain’s possession game, 2297 completed passes at high accuracy across their last five fixtures compared to Croatia’s 1445, lets them control fouls and cards too, picking up just 3 yellows to Croatia’s 10 over the same stretch. Croatia’s deeper, more physical approach, reflected in their foul count and Pongračić and Sučić already carrying cards, risks conceding set pieces that Spain’s wide players, Yamal and Pubill in particular, are well equipped to exploit.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Lamine Yamal to score anytime |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Croatia’s last outing ended in disaster, a 0-7 thrashing against England that exposed every defensive weakness Bilic’s side carries into this fixture. In our preview of Croatia vs England we backed England to edge it by a single goal with goals at both ends, and the eventual 0-7 scoreline went well against that call, Croatia failed to register even one. Before that they lost 1-4 to this very Spain side and edged Czech Republic 2-1, so the pattern against top-tier opposition is clear: Croatia struggle badly once the opponent controls the ball.
Spain’s most recent fixture was a 3-1 win over Czech Republic, continuing a run that has seen them win every single one of their last three group matches. In our preview of Spain vs Czech Republic we called for a win by at least two goals with the over 3.5 goals angle, and the 3-1 final score covered both parts of that prediction. Spain have now scored ten goals and conceded just four across their three group games, numbers that put them clearly ahead of England, Croatia and Czech Republic in this pool.
🚨Check out our dedicated Croatia vs Spain stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Spain the favourite
- Moneyline Croatia 6.50 | Spain 1.41
- Draw 5.00
- Over/Under Over 2.5 not quoted individually | Under 2.5 not quoted individually
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes/No pricing varies by book
Bookmakers price Spain at roughly 68% to win this fixture, with Croatia given only a 13% chance and the draw sitting at 18%. Those numbers line up with the underlying stats: Spain’s shot volume, pass accuracy and recent scoring rate dwarf Croatia’s, and the market reflects a genuine quality gap rather than a close contest being undervalued.
Possible Starting Lineups
Croatia possible starting eleven
- GK: Dominik Livaković
- DF: Josko Gvardiol, Josip Šutalo, Luka Vuskovic, Ivan Smolcic
- MF: Luka Modrić, Mateo Kovačić
- FW: Ivan Perišić, Nikola Vlašić, Petar Sučić, Andrej Kramarić
Bilic sticks with the 4-2-3-1 that has featured across his last five squads, pairing Modrić and Kovačić in a double pivot to protect a back four that has leaked goals badly. Perišić remains the senior outlet on the left, and Modrić’s distribution will decide how much the front line actually sees of the ball.
Spain possible starting eleven
- GK: Unai Simon
- DF: Marc Pubill, Aymeric Laporte, Dean Huijsen, Marc Cucurella
- MF: Rodrigo Hernandez Cascante, Martín Zubimendi
- FW: Lamine Yamal, Daniel Olmo Carvajal, Pedri, Mikel Oyarzabal
De la Fuente keeps faith with the same 4-2-3-1 shape and near-identical personnel from the Czech Republic win. Yamal operates as the right-sided attacker but drifts freely, Rodri anchors the midfield, and Oyarzabal’s movement up top gives Croatia’s centre-backs a different problem to solve from the one England posed.
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Croatia. Source: Official X/Twitter. Edited photo
TipsGG Match Prediction
Spain should get the job done in Split without much drama. Croatia’s defence has conceded eleven goals across their last two matches combined, and nothing in their recent numbers suggests a sudden turnaround against a Spanish side averaging nearly three goals per game. We lean toward Spain -1.5 on the handicap, Yamal to add to his tally, and the total goals line going over 2.5 fairly comfortably. Perhaps Croatia manage one consolation goal late, but backing them to keep it level or win outright looks like the wrong side of this match, to be honest.
Read Also: Croatia vs Spain Predicted Line-ups and Team News: Both Expected XIs
