Levi Rothermund
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Croatia welcome England to Stadion Rujevica with both sides still searching for consistency in Group 3. Spain sit clear at the top after two rounds, and neither Croatia nor England can afford another slip if they want to keep pace. The last time these two faced off, at the 2026 World Cup, England ran out 4-2 winners in a game that showed just how exposed Croatia’s back line can look against sharp, direct attackers. That memory lingers heading into Rijeka.
Keep an eye on Harry Kane, who has scored in both of England’s last two outings and remains the focal point of every attacking move Tuchel sets up. On the other side, Luka Modrić still dictates tempo for Croatia even in a reduced role, and his passing range gives Bilic’s side a route out of pressure that few other players on the pitch can offer.
Hot stat: England have scored ten or more combined goals in two of their last five fixtures (6-4 over France, 2-3 defeat away to Spain), while Croatia have shipped at least two goals in four of their own last five matches. That gap in defensive solidity tells its own story going into this one.
| 🏆 Tournament: | UEFA Nations League 2026/27, League A Group 3 |
| 🏟 Venue: | Stadion Rujevica, Rijeka |
| 🗓️ Date: | 03.10.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 18:00 CEST |
Croatia vs England prediction
We lean toward England here, honestly. Their pass accuracy sits close to 92% from recent games compared to Croatia’s roughly 86%, and that control usually translates into more clean chances created over 90 minutes. England also average nearly 35 shots across their last five matches against Croatia’s 21, a gap too wide to ignore against a Croatia defense that has conceded in four of five recent outings.
Discipline could matter too. Croatia have picked up 19 fouls and 5 yellow cards over their last five games, while England sit at 23 fouls but only 4 cards, suggesting England commit tactical fouls without drawing as much punishment. Corners lean England’s way as well, 12 against Croatia’s 8, which hints at sustained territorial pressure rather than one-off chances.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Harry Kane to score anytime |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Croatia’s last match ended in a 1-4 defeat to Spain, a result that exposed gaps at the back against a side playing with real control. Before that, Bilic’s team beat Czech Republic 2-1, so form has been patchy rather than collapsing. In our preview of Spain vs Croatia we called Spain to win by two with goals at both ends, and the 4-1 scoreline landed that call even if the margin ran a goal wider than we expected.
England arrive off a 2-0 win over Czech Republic, a tidy if unspectacular display that kept their campaign alive after the Spain defeat. Three wins and two losses over their last five matches show a team capable of real firepower (six goals against France) but also prone to leaky moments against sharper midfields. In our preview of Czech Republic vs England we backed England to win, and the 2-0 result delivered that part of the call even though the game stayed tighter than the over 2.5 and BTTS angle we also floated.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Croatia | England |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2 | 4 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Croatia vs England stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: England the favourite
- Moneyline Croatia 4.10 | England 1.82
- Draw 3.50
Bookmakers price England as clear favourites here, and it lines up with what we see in the underlying numbers. England’s shot volume, pass accuracy and recent head-to-head record against Croatia all point the same direction. Croatia’s odds above 4.0 look a touch generous given how competitive Bilic’s side has been against lesser opposition, but against England specifically, the value still sits with the away side.
Croatia. Source: Official Facebook
Possible Starting Lineups
Croatia possible starting eleven
- GK: Dominik Livaković
- DF: Josko Gvardiol, Luka Vuskovic, Josip Šutalo, Ivan Smolcic
- MF: Mateo Kovačić, Petar Sučić
- FW: Luka Modrić, Luka Sučić, Ivan Perišić, Marco Pašalić
Bilic should stick with the 4-2-3-1 that’s carried Croatia through recent games. Modrić pulling strings just behind Pašalić remains the clearest route to goal, and Perišić’s experience on the left gives the side balance against England’s quick fullbacks.
England possible starting eleven
- GK: James Trafford
- DF: Marc Guehi, Ezri Konsa, Trevoh Chalobah, Lewis Hall
- MF: Elliot Anderson, Myles Lewis-Skelly
- FW: Jude Bellingham, Bukayo Saka, Anthony Gordon, Harry Kane
Tuchel’s 4-2-3-1 leans on Kane as the out-and-out striker, flanked by Saka and Gordon, both good for quick combinations in tight spaces. Bellingham’s box-to-box energy behind them should give England control in midfield, where Anderson and Lewis-Skelly cover ground well.
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England. Source: Official Facebook
TipsGG Match Prediction
We’re backing England to win this one, probably by a single goal margin with goals at both ends. Croatia’s recent defensive record against sharper sides, paired with England’s superior shot volume and passing control, makes a repeat of their World Cup meeting plausible, even if not quite as one-sided. BTTS looks like the smarter side bet given Croatia’s attacking depth through Modrić and Perišić, and we wouldn’t be surprised if Kane adds another goal to his tally in Rijeka.
Read also: Croatia vs England: Predicted Line-ups, Confirmed Absentees and Team News
Read also: Croatia vs England Head-to-Head: Record, Stats and Form as of 1 Oct 2026
