Rafael Nogueira
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Chapecoense host Vasco at Arena Condá in a Série A regular season fixture with very different stakes. Chapecoense sit 20th in the table with 21 points from 33 matches and have lost 20 of their games. Vasco sit 13th on 41 points and carry more momentum into the match. Bookmakers have priced Vasco as clear favourites, and we agree with that view.
The most interesting angle is the contrast in attacking output. Vasco have scored nine goals in their last five matches, and forward Facundo Colidio has been the most consistent finisher in that run. Chapecoense have managed only three goals in the same span, which leaves their attack reliant on Yannick Bolasie to create something from nothing.
Two players deserve attention. Facundo Colidio has one goal and one assist in five appearances and fires the most shots in the Vasco front line. Yannick Bolasie has scored once and drawn three free kicks in four games, and he gives Chapecoense their most reliable route forward.
Hot stat: Vasco have taken 64 shots across their last five matches, almost double the 35 Chapecoense managed in the same period.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Campeonato Brasileiro Série A 2026, Regular Season |
| 🏟 Venue: | Arena Condá, Chapecó |
| 🗓️ Date: | 15.11.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 01:30 CEST |
Chapecoense vs Vasco prediction
We predict a Vasco win with goals at both ends. Vasco are the stronger side on the ball, and their attacking volume should overwhelm a Chapecoense defence that has conceded 33 goals in 2026 and 68 in total this season. Vasco’s away form of two wins in their last five road-style outings suggests they can impose their game on any venue. Bookmakers price Vasco at 1.40, which offers limited value on a straight win, so we prefer adding the goals element to lift the return.
Chapecoense have committed 49 fouls and picked up six yellow cards across five matches, which signals a side that defends by interrupting play rather than controlling it. Their 1,553 passes compare poorly with Vasco’s 2,440, and their 1,280 accurate passes leave them short of territory. Vasco have committed 61 fouls and earned nine yellow cards, and Alan Saldivia’s red card shows a team that sometimes tackles recklessly under pressure. Vasco’s 75 interceptions against Chapecoense’s 46 point to a visiting side that wins the ball high and creates chances quickly. Chapecoense have won 15 corners in five games and Vasco have 14, so corners should stay modest. We expect Vasco to keep the ball, probe the flanks and punish the home defence in transition.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Vasco to win and over 2.5 goals |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Under 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Chapecoense come into this fixture on the back of a 1-2 home defeat to Mirassol, a result that extended a run of inconsistent form. Across their last five matches they have won once, drawn none and lost four, with their attack restricted to just three goals. In our preview of Chapecoense vs Mirassol we called a Mirassol win, and the 1-2 result delivered it. The Mirassol game also highlighted Chapecoense’s defensive fragility, as they conceded twice despite restricting the visitors to few clear chances.
Vasco have shown more threat in recent weeks, scoring nine times in five matches and winning three of their last eight games. Their most recent outing ended 6-6 against Palmeiras, a match that showcased their attacking firepower but also a defensive vulnerability. In our preview of Palmeiras vs Vasco we called a Palmeiras win, and the 6-6 draw went against us. Vasco still generated enough quality to score six, which tells us their attack remains dangerous even when the defence leaks goals.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Chapecoense | Vasco |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1 | 1 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Chapecoense vs Vasco stats page for more info.
Chapecoense. Source: Official Facebook
Pre-game odds and win probability: Vasco the favourite
- Moneyline Chapecoense 6.75 | Vasco 1.40
- Draw 4.80
Bookmakers give Vasco a 66% implied probability, against 14% for Chapecoense and 19% for the draw. The Chapecoense price sits between 6.52 and 7.00 across the market, and the Vasco price between 1.38 and 1.45. We see the 66% figure as fair given the form gap, but a 1.40 price leaves little margin for error. The draw at 4.80 looks overpriced when both sides have shown they can concede and score in the same match.
Possible Starting Lineups
Chapecoense possible starting eleven
- GK: Anderson Silva da Paixão
- DF: Fernando Augusto Pereira Bueno Júnior, Bruno Pacheco, Eduardo Vinicius Domachowski, Luis Eduardo Marques dos Santos
- MF: Camilo Reijers de Oliveira, Bruno Matias, Giovanni Augusto, Yago Felipe, Max
- FW: Yannick Bolasie
We expect Rafael Lacerda to deploy a 4-2-3-1 with Camilo Reijers and Bruno Matias screening the back four. Giovanni Augusto offers the best link between midfield and attack, and he has the most assists in the squad. Yannick Bolasie is the player to watch, since he has the most shots and free kick wins among the forwards and offers the only realistic route to a goal.
Vasco possible starting eleven
- GK: Léo Jardim
- DF: Cuiabano, Robert Renan, Lucas Piton, Jose Luis Rodriguez
- MF: Thiago Mendes, Santiago Sosa, Jair, Alan Lescano, Tchê Tchê
- FW: Facundo Colidio
Pedro Emanuel should field a 4-2-3-1 with Thiago Mendes and Santiago Sosa controlling the centre. Alan Lescano brings goals and a high work rate, while Facundo Colidio leads the line as the main threat. Jose Luis Rodriguez adds attacking width from full-back, having scored twice with 12 shots in five matches.
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Vasco. Source: Official Facebook
TipsGG Match Prediction
To be honest, the stronger form and superior attacking output make Vasco the right side to back. Vasco have 64 shots, 2,440 passes and a far better record in their recent matches, while Chapecoense have struggled to score and keep clean sheets. We predict Vasco to win, with a scoreline around 2-1 or 3-1, and we back the match to finish with more than 2.5 goals. Chapecoense’s defence has leaked too often to hold Vasco scoreless for long, and their attack lacks the consistency to answer a fast start.
