Rafael Nogueira
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Chapecoense sit dead last in the Série A table with 18 points from 30 games, and their defense has leaked an astonishing 62 goals this season. Fluminense arrive in fourth place, fighting for a continental spot, but their own form has wobbled lately with three losses in the last five outings. The gap on paper looks huge, yet Fluminense’s recent inconsistency gives this fixture a bit more intrigue than the standings suggest.
Keep an eye on Jefferson Savarino, who has three goals in his last five appearances for Fluminense and operates as the chief creative outlet from wide areas. On the other side, Maurício Garcez is Chapecoense’s only source of a league goal in his last five games, carrying almost the entire attacking burden alone.
Hot stat: Chapecoense have scored just 1 goal combined across their last five matches while conceding at will, a stark contrast to Fluminense’s 7 goals produced in the same span.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Campeonato Brasileiro Série A 2026, Regular Season |
| 🏟 Venue: | Arena Condá, Chapecó |
| 🗓️ Date: | 25.10.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 00:30 CEST |
Chapecoense vs Fluminense RJ prediction
We predict a Fluminense RJ win, and perhaps the visitors keep a clean sheet while doing it. Chapecoense have won none of their last five league matches, drawing two and losing three, and their 30-day form shows zero victories across five games. Fluminense, despite their own bumpy stretch, still average close to a goal and a half per match and face a side that has managed one goal in five outings.
Chapecoense commit fouls at a steady rate (46 in their last five matches) but their real issue is defensive organization rather than discipline, conceding 62 goals this season already. Fluminense pass with far greater precision, averaging close to 90% accuracy among their key midfielders like Paulo Henrique and Thiago Silva, and that control should let them dictate tempo in Chapecó. Expect Fluminense to see plenty of the ball and create the bulk of clear chances, with Chapecoense relying on set pieces or individual moments from Garcez to get on the scoresheet, if at all.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Fluminense RJ to win to nil |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Under 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 8.5 |
Team Analysis
Chapecoense’s last match ended 0-1 at home to Botafogo, continuing a run that now stretches to three straight losses before that against Athletico PR (1-4) and Vitória (0-4). Two draws against Atlético Nacional and Atlético Mineiro before that offer the only bright spots, but even those came without a win. In our preview of Botafogo RJ vs Chapecoense we called a comfortable Botafogo win given the gulf in table position, and the 1-0 scoreline delivered exactly that outcome.
Fluminense’s last match brought a surprise 1-0 away win over Palmeiras, snapping a run of three straight defeats to Santos (1-2), Palmeiras (1-2) and Flamengo (0-1). That win showed Fluminense can still grind out results against strong opposition even while out of form. In our preview of Palmeiras vs Fluminense RJ we leaned firmly toward Palmeiras given their unbeaten run, and the 1-0 result for Fluminense went against that call.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Chapecoense | Fluminense RJ |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1 | 2 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Chapecoense vs Fluminense RJ stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Fluminense RJ the favourite
- Moneyline Chapecoense 4.00 | Fluminense RJ 1.86
- Draw 3.50
The market gives Fluminense roughly a coin-flip-plus edge over 50%, which lines up with the gap in quality and table position. A price near 1.86 on the away side looks fair rather than generous, given Chapecoense’s complete lack of defensive solidity this season. We see value leaning toward the away win market over backing the draw, since Chapecoense’s recent draws came against mid-table sides, not top-four opposition like Fluminense.
Possible Starting Lineups
Chapecoense possible starting eleven
- GK: Anderson Silva da Paixão
- DF: Eduardo Vinicius Domachowski, Bruno Pacheco, Kauan Faria, João Paulo
- MF: Giovanni Augusto, Yago Felipe, Bruno Matias, Camilo Reijers de Oliveira, Yannick Bolasie
- FW: Maurício Garcez
Rafael Lacerda has little choice but to stick with his 4-2-3-1 base, pairing Giovanni Augusto and Yago Felipe as the screen in front of a shaky back four. Garcez remains the lone outlet up top and the only player with a goal contribution in this sample, so his movement off Yannick Bolasie’s width will decide whether Chapecoense threaten at all.
Fluminense RJ possible starting eleven
- GK: Fábio Deivson Lopes Maciel
- DF: Samuel Xavier Brito, Thiago Silva, Julian Millan, Claudio Rodrigues Gomes
- MF: Paulo Henrique Chagas de Lima, Otávio Henrique Passos Santos, Hércules Pereira do Nascimento, Luciano Acosta, Jefferson David Savarino Quintero
- FW: Hulk
Marcão keeps Thiago Silva anchoring the back line alongside Julian Millan, both ever-present in this run, while Savarino and Acosta rotate the attacking midfield three around Hulk’s central presence. The 4-2-3-1 shape should give Fluminense control of possession and let Savarino drift wide to find space against a tiring Chapecoense back line.
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Fluminense RJ. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
The Verdict
We predict Fluminense RJ to win this one, and perhaps by more than a single goal given how porous Chapecoense’s defense has looked across the last five matches. Chapecoense’s attack managing just one goal in that stretch makes a Fluminense clean sheet realistic, while their own forwards led by Hulk and Savarino should find enough space against a side conceding at nearly two goals per game. To be honest, the only risk for backers is Fluminense’s own three-match losing run before the Palmeiras result, but against the division’s weakest defense we expect quality to show up.
