Rafael Nogueira
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Palmeiras carry a 2-1 lead from the first leg into this Copa Libertadores semifinal, and Abel Ferreira’s side get to defend that advantage at Nubank Parque. Fluminense trail the tie and arrive off the back of three straight defeats, a rough patch that has coincided with Santos knocking them out of form just days ago. The gap in confidence between these two sides right now is stark: Palmeiras have barely lost all year, Fluminense can’t buy a result. This second leg is less a coin flip and more a question of whether Marcão’s men can find one big night to flip the tie.
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José Manuel López has been the sharpest edge in the Palmeiras attack, scoring three goals from five appearances and leading the squad in shots. On the other side, Jefferson Savarino has matched that output for Fluminense with three goals in six matches, and he carries more creative responsibility than anyone else in Marcão’s side right now. Both players need to deliver if their teams want a say in this tie.
Hot stat: Palmeiras have gone fourteen straight matches without defeat across competitions, while Fluminense walk into this second leg on a three-game losing run. That gap alone tells most of the story here.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Copa Libertadores 2026, Semifinals (2nd leg) |
| 🏟 Venue: | Nubank Parque, São Paulo |
| 🗓️ Date: | 22.10.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 02:30 CEST |
Palmeiras vs Fluminense RJ prediction
We predict Palmeiras to win this second leg and confirm their place in the final. The home side own a 2-1 cushion from the first meeting, sit on an unbeaten run stretching fourteen matches, and have won four of their last five outings with an 80% win rate in the past month. Fluminense, by contrast, have lost three in a row and won only 40% of their matches in the same span. Backing Palmeiras on the moneyline at around 1.90 offers fair value given how one-sided the recent trend has been, and the tie situation gives them extra incentive to press rather than sit back.
Style-wise, Fluminense dominate the ball more in terms of raw passing numbers, completing roughly 89.5% of their attempts across the last five games against Palmeiras’ 81.9%, yet they foul more (84 fouls to Palmeiras’ 64) and pick up more cards (14 to 11). Palmeiras counter that with sharper interceptions, 59 against Fluminense’s 42, suggesting they win the ball back quicker and can hurt Fluminense on the transition. That combination, tidy pressing plus a reliable finisher in López, points toward Palmeiras controlling the game’s bigger moments even if Fluminense edge the possession stats.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Palmeiras -1 Asian Handicap |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 8.5 |
Team Analysis
Palmeiras’ last outing was a comfortable 2-0 win over Athletico PR, continuing a run that has seen them lose none of their last five. In our preview of Athletico PR vs Palmeiras we backed the double chance alongside over 2.5 goals and BTTS yes, and the 2-0 scoreline delivered on the double chance call even though the game stayed under 2.5 and finished with a clean sheet. Before that, Palmeiras edged the first leg against Fluminense 2-1 and smashed Corinthians 4-1, showing an attack capable of punishing mid-table sides and giants alike. Their defense has conceded sparingly in the last month, with Gustavo Gómez and Murilo marshaling the back line well.
Fluminense head into this leg having lost 1-2 to Santos in their most recent match, their third straight defeat. In our preview of Fluminense RJ vs Santos we called a narrow Fluminense win with goals at both ends, and the 1-2 result went against us on the winner even though both sides did find the net. Before the Santos defeat, Fluminense lost the first leg to Palmeiras 1-2 and fell 0-1 to Flamengo, a stretch that has eroded any momentum Marcão’s side built earlier in the year. Their 4-0 win over Coritiba remains the one bright spot in an otherwise shaky run.
🚨Check out our dedicated Palmeiras vs Fluminense RJ stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Palmeiras the favourite
- Moneyline Palmeiras 1.90 | Fluminense RJ 3.90
- Draw 3.45
Bookmakers price Palmeiras at close to an implied 50% chance of winning outright, well above Fluminense’s roughly 24%. That gap lines up with the form and first-leg lead, and we see no reason to fade the home side at these numbers. Fluminense’s price looks fair given their defensive drop-off, and anything around 3.90 reflects genuine underdog status rather than a trap price.
Possible Starting Lineups
Palmeiras possible starting eleven
- GK: Carlos Miguel
- DF: Khellven Douglas Silva Oliveira, Gustavo Gómez, Murilo Cerqueira Paim, Agustin Giay
- MF: Marlon Freitas, Andreas Pereira, Lucas Evangelista
- FW: Felipe Anderson, Jhon Arias, José Manuel López
Abel Ferreira tends to stick with his 4-2-3-1 shape, and every one of these names has featured in four or five of the last five matches. Marlon Freitas and Andreas Pereira shield the back four while Evangelista, Anderson and Arias rotate behind López, who leads the line as the team’s most reliable scorer this stretch.
Fluminense RJ possible starting eleven
- GK: Fábio Deivson Lopes Maciel
- DF: Samuel Xavier Brito, Thiago Silva, Julian Millan, Guilherme Arana
- MF: Paulo Henrique Chagas de Lima, Hércules Pereira do Nascimento, Luciano Acosta
- FW: Kevin Serna, Hulk, Jefferson David Savarino Quintero
Marcão also lines up in a 4-2-3-1, with Thiago Silva’s experience anchoring a defense that needs a big night. Hulk and Savarino carry the attacking load up front, and Acosta’s creativity in midfield will be key if Fluminense are to claw back the tie.
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Fluminense RJ. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
TipsGG Match Prediction
We lean firmly toward Palmeiras here. They arrive unbeaten in fourteen matches, hold the away-goal-free 2-1 cushion from the first leg, and have the sharper finisher in López plus a defense that intercepts far more than Fluminense’s does. Fluminense’s three-match losing streak and their tendency to foul more under pressure suggest a side low on confidence rather than one ready to produce an away heroics performance. Perhaps Fluminense nick a goal through Savarino or Hulk, but we expect Palmeiras to manage the game, score enough to settle any doubt, and advance to the final comfortably.
Read Also: Palmeiras vs Fluminense Predicted Line-ups and Team News Ahead of 22 Oct 2026: Both Expected XIs
