Celtic vs Sturm Graz Prediction: 23.10.2025 UEFA Europa League Preview

The UEFA Europa League League Phase throws up a fascinating clash as Celtic host Sturm Graz at Brann Stadion in Bergen. While Celtic are usually found in the upper echelons of group stages, their current European form has left much to ponder, and their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed in recent matches. Conversely, Sturm Graz, riding a surge of domestic form, look set to test the Scottish side’s resilience despite entering as underdogs. With both teams desperate for crucial points to stay in contention, this fixture holds added significance as a possible turning point in each side’s campaign.

Two figures demand particular attention: Callum McGregor, the heartbeat of Celtic’s midfield, offers steel and vision, and Otar Kiteishvili, whose recent surge in goals for Sturm Graz, has transformed him into a real threat in advanced areas. The technical duel in the middle of the park could well become the deciding factor.

The outstanding “hot stat” heading into this match: Sturm Graz have netted 9 goals in their last 5 matches—more than double Celtic’s tally in the same period—demonstrating a significantly sharper edge in front of goal.

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Celtic vs Sturm Graz prediction

The data suggests a contest that is closer than the bookmakers’ odds indicate—Sturm Graz’s prolific attack and recent momentum pose a genuine threat. However, Celtic’s higher technical level and expected tactical control, especially in a neutral Norwegian venue, tip the scales. Expect Celtic to leverage their possession dominance (pass accuracy at 70% over the last five games is markedly higher than Sturm’s 66%), while aiming to plug gaps in a back line that’s been unconvincing at times. The best value lies with a cautious Celtic win, but with both teams likely to find the net due to defensive lapses on both sides.

Discipline and tempo could shape this clash: Celtic average 10 yellow cards in 5 matches, while Sturm Graz’s aggression is reflected in 14 bookings. Both sides are competent at drawing fouls and pressing high, which increases risks for bookings and potentially sets the stage for set-piece goals. Expect an open midfield where transitions will decide the outcome, and given Celtic’s 40 corners in 5 matches (double Sturm’s total), dead-ball situations could be crucial.

Team Analysis

Celtic: Recent games have been a rollercoaster, underlining inconsistency both domestically and in Europe. Their last outing—a lackluster 0-2 home defeat to Dundee—exposed continued vulnerabilities in defending quick counters. Before that, a nervy 3-2 win against Motherwell revealed both attacking flair and defensive naivety. A significant concern: across their last 5 games, Celtic have only scored 4 times, underperforming their xG and relying heavily on moments of individual brilliance rather than coherent, repeatable patterns. The lack of goals from forwards, apart from Kelechi Iheanacho, is a headache, and the midfield needs to contribute more directly to the score sheet.

Sturm Graz: The Austrian outfit come into this tie in red-hot form, winning 5 of their last 6 matches. Their 4-3 thriller over Blau Weiss Linz underlined both their attacking potency and a certain recklessness at the back—something Celtic can exploit. Sturm thrive in an energetic 4-2-3-1 that encourages late runs from midfield, especially Otar Kiteishvili, whose 3 goals in the last 3 appearances have come at pivotal moments. Despite some lapses in discipline and a tendency to rack up yellow cards, Sturm’s vertical play and confident combinations in tight areas give them a puncher’s chance here.

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🚨Read our full Celtic vs Sturm Graz stats for more analysis.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Celtic the favourite

• Moneyline Celtic 1.53 | Sturm Graz 6.00
• Draw 4.48
• Over/Under Over 2.5 1.80 | Under 2.5 2.00
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 1.85 | No 1.90

The odds justifiably make Celtic clear favourites based on European pedigree and team value, but there is clear value in backing both teams to score or even a higher-scoring contest. Sturm Graz’s attacking momentum should not be underestimated as they are consistently above par recently, and Celtic’s defensive struggles could offer opportunities. Punters looking for value beyond the moneyline might consider BTTS or Over 2.5.

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Possible Starting Lineups

Celtic possible starting eleven

With Schmeichel providing crucial experience and stability, expect a 4-3-3 that allows Tierney and Ralston to support wide attacks. McGregor pulls the strings from deep, while Hatate and Engels offer energy. Iheanacho, Celtic’s in-form attacker, will be supported by the industrious Maeda and the creative Nygren. Watch for McGregor’s tempo-setting and Iheanacho’s willingness to drive at defenders as key features.

Sturm Graz possible starting eleven

Jürgen Säumel will likely persist with a 4-2-3-1. Christensen retains the gloves, behind an aggressive backline featuring Karic and Aiwu who double up as set-piece threats. Stanković anchors midfield with Hierländer, while Horvat, Kiteishvili and Malone create an attacking trident behind Grgic. Keep an eye on Kiteishvili, currently in dazzling form, as the player most likely to destabilize Celtic, and expect Sturm’s pressing game to test Celtic’s composure at the back.

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My take on the Match

While Celtic enter as favourites, this fixture feels like a crossroads for both teams’ seasons. I’m backing Celtic to edge a high-scoring contest, but not without drama—Sturm Graz’s recent scoring surge and tactical bravery mean the Scottish side will be pressed to their limits. My main pick: Celtic to win and both teams to score. Expect a flurry of chances, a lively tactical battle in midfield, and a game that could swing with a single defensive lapse or moment of inspiration. For Brendan Rodgers, three points are vital—anything less may see their Europa League ambitions under immediate threat.

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