Sofia Quijada
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Celta Vigo and Levante meet at Balaídos on Sunday evening with both sides on two-match losing runs and very different problems to fix. Tenth hosts eighteenth, yet the six-place gap hides the sharper story: Celta have drawn six of eleven league games, the most in La Liga, while every opponent Levante faced across their last five matches sits in the top eight, a stretch that still produced eight goals scored and nine conceded.
Two players shape this fixture more than any tactical detail. Iago Aspas has one assist and six shots from 164 minutes across his last five appearances, and Giráldez needs his captain sharp against a defense conceding 1.9 goals per game. Roger Brugué carries Levante’s threat with two goals, one assist and ten shots in five matches. The standout number from the recent data belongs to the visitors though: their last five games produced 17 goals, 3.4 per match, and that pattern drives our total-goals call below.
| 🏆 Tournament: | La Liga 2026/2027, Regular Season |
| 🏟 Venue: | Municipal de Balaídos, Vigo |
| 🗓️ Date: | 08.11.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 19:30 CEST |
Celta Vigo vs Levante prediction
We predict Celta Vigo to win, perhaps 2-1. Levante have shipped 21 goals in eleven league matches, the joint-worst record in the division alongside bottom club Malaga, and Celta beat both Alavés and Celtic by that exact scoreline at Balaídos this month. The two straight defeats Celta carry into Sunday came against Union SG, a side with eleven wins in fifteen, and a Rayo team that caught them cold, so the 51 percent home probability still reflects a genuine edge. To be honest, the risk is plain: six draws keep the stalemate live, and ten league goals in eleven games is thin return for a favourite. Levante’s defending settles the call for us.
Style points lean the same way. Celta completed 2,673 passes at 86.4 percent accuracy and made 50 interceptions across their last five matches, numbers that describe a team comfortable on the ball and active without it. Levante sit deeper, pass at 82.1 percent and strike on the break, with eight goals in five games. Discipline is the telling detail: ten yellow cards in five matches despite fewer fouls than Celta, 52 against 61, which points to late challenges in dangerous zones. Expect the hosts to win territory and the corner count, 23 to 21 in the same sample, and force bookings in Levante’s back line, while Brugué’s running keeps an away goal in play.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Celta Vigo to win and both teams to score |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Under 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Celta’s last five read two wins, one draw and two defeats. Thursday’s 1-2 home loss to Union SG stung most because it came at Balaídos against a visitor on an eleven-win surge, and it followed the 0-3 collapse against Rayo Vallecano. Earlier in the run the picture looked healthier: a goalless draw with fourth-placed Real Betis, then back-to-back 2-1 victories over Celtic in Europe and Alavés in the league. That is a side competing with everyone and closing out very little, which explains six draws and tenth place on 12 points. In our preview of Celta Vigo vs Royale Union SG we called the draw as our primary outcome, and the 1-2 result went against us, even though Union’s one-goal margin fit the tight contest we expected.
Levante’s calendar deserves a word before anyone buries them. Saturday’s 0-2 home defeat to Atletico Madrid was the second straight loss, but it came against the league’s second-placed side, and the previous four read 1-2 against fifth-placed Real Sociedad, 3-1 over seventh-placed Athletic Bilbao, 1-1 with eighth-placed Deportivo La Coruna and a 3-3 thriller with sixth-placed Sevilla. One win from five against that list says more about the schedule than any slide, and eight goals in five games show Luís Castro’s attack works. The issue sits behind it: no clean sheet in the last five, with at least two goals conceded in three of them. In our preview of Levante vs Atletico Madrid we called an Atletico win away from home, and the 0-2 result delivered it.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
These sides split last season’s meetings. Celta won 2-1 in November 2025, Levante answered with a 3-2 win at Balaídos in May 2026, and both results landed against the bookmakers’ leading expectation for the match. Our feed carries no shot, foul or corner breakdown from those meetings, so the table covers goals only across the two-game sample.
| Statistic | Celta Vigo | Levante |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 4 | 4 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Celta Vigo vs Levante stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Celta Vigo the favourite
- Moneyline Celta Vigo 1.90 | Levante 4.12
- Draw 3.76
The averages across six bookmakers imply a 51 percent home win probability, which matches the published consensus exactly. We see the price as fair rather than generous: Celta have won two of eleven league games and lost consecutive matches, so 1.90 asks for belief in a side with two league victories as a clear favourite. The draw at 3.76 splits our office, since Celta’s six stalemates keep it live while Levante’s draws came against Depor and Sevilla rather than direct rivals. History adds a caution flag, because both meetings last season finished against the bookmakers’ leading pick, Celta winning as a 32 percent outsider in November 2025 and Levante overturning a 52 percent home quote in May.
Possible Starting Lineups
Celta Vigo possible starting eleven
- GK: Ionuț Andrei Radu
- DF: Sergio Carreira, Javier Rodríguez, Yoel Lago, Javier Rueda
- MF: Hugo Alvarez, Aleix Febas, Ilaix Moriba, Williot Swedberg
- FW: Iago Aspas, Ferran Jutglà
Giráldez has stayed with a 4-4-2 and the minutes back this eleven. Radu has played every minute of the last five matches and made 20 saves, with Rodríguez, Rueda and Lago forming the spine in front of him. Rodríguez is the watch item beyond the headlines: three goals and an assist from defense in five games, plus 450 minutes, the most among Celta’s outfield players. Hugo Alvarez and Swedberg cover the wide channels so Aspas can roam, and Aspas next to Jutglà is the partnership behind the 2-1 wins over Celtic and Alavés. Marcos Alonso and Hugo Burcio press for starts if Giráldez rotates after Thursday’s European fixture, and Pablo Durán is the first man off the bench.
Levante possible starting eleven
- GK: Mathew Ryan
- DF: Jeremy Toljan, Aïssa Mandi, Ifeanyi Ndukwe, Manu Sánchez
- MF: Jon Ander Olasagasti, Daniel Requena
- FW: Roger Brugué, Thiago Cruz, Iván Romero, Petar Ratkov
Castro’s 4-2-3-1 picks itself on playing time. Ryan has started every minute of the last five and made 13 saves, Ndukwe has 450 minutes and a goal from the heart of the defense, and Mandi organizes beside him. Olasagasti and Requena form the pivot, with Requena’s nine fouls and booking a small risk against Celta’s press. The threat lives in the front four: Brugué with two goals and ten shots, Cruz with eight shots and an assist, Romero as the mobile reference point and Ratkov leading the line. Adrián de la Fuente, a goal and ten shots in only three appearances, is the likeliest change if Castro wants more presence in the box, and Karl Etta Eyong offers fresh legs late.
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Celta Vigo. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
The Verdict
We predict Celta Vigo to win 2-1, with both teams scoring and the match clearing the 2.5 line. Three layers support the stake: Levante’s back line has kept no clean sheet in five and lives on ten bookings; Celta’s home wins this month both finished 2-1 against organized opposition; and Levante’s attack has scored in four of five, so the away goal remains more likely than not. Corners should stay modest with both sides averaging under five per game, hence the under 9.5 lean. If Celta’s draw habit strikes again, 1-1 is the fallback score, but our money goes on the home win at 1.90.
