Celta Vigo vs Alavés Prediction: 18.10.2026 La Liga 2026/2027

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Celta Vigo welcome Alavés to Balaídos sitting just one place and three points apart in the table, both clubs stuck in mid-table mediocrity after promising starts. Celta sit 9th with eight points from eight games, Alavés 7th with eleven, but neither side has won in its last three domestic outings. The last meeting between these two produced a wild 4-3 Alavés win, so a repeat of that shootout script can not be ruled out given both defenses have looked shaky lately.

Keep an eye on Pablo Durán Fernández, who has scored twice in his last two Celta appearances off the bench and offers a direct outlet up front, and Lucas Boyé, Alavés’ main striker who has carried most of the goal threat in a side that has gone cold in front of goal.

Hot stat: Celta have scored six goals across their last five matches in all competitions, Alavés have managed just one in the same span, a gap that says plenty about which attack looks more likely to break the deadlock first.

Celta Vigo vs Alavés prediction

We lean toward Celta Vigo winning this one, perhaps by a narrow one or two goal margin. The home side holds a clear edge in attacking output this season, averaging far more shots and completed passes than Alavés across the last five matches, and Balaídos has historically been a tough place for Alavés to take points. To be honest, the value sits with backing Celta on the money line rather than chasing the draw, given the bookmaker consensus of 47% already undersells how one-sided the underlying numbers look.

Celta’s passing game stands out, completing roughly 86% of their attempts over the last five matches compared to Alavés’ 78%, and they have racked up seven corners against Alavés’ solitary one in the same stretch, pointing to sustained territorial control at home. Celta have also picked up seven yellow cards in that span against zero for Alavés, suggesting a more physical, higher-tempo approach that could open up space in behind if Alavés sit off too passively. Alavés’ one red card in five games hints at occasional discipline lapses under pressure, something Celta’s front three could exploit again here.

Team Analysis

Celta’s last outing ended in a 1-2 home loss to Juventus, a result that followed a goalless draw with Elche and sits alongside a 5-0 demolition of Racing Santander and a tighter 1-1 draw with Malaga earlier this month. The pattern is inconsistency, Giráldez’s side look dangerous against weaker opposition but struggle to convert chances against better-organized teams. In our preview of Celta Vigo vs Juventus we called a low-scoring away win for Juventus by a one or two goal margin, and the 1-2 final score delivered that exact outcome.

Alavés head into this match on the back of a 1-2 defeat to Atletico Madrid, extending a run that includes a goalless draw with Athletic Bilbao, a 0-1 loss to Valencia and a 1-2 defeat to Racing Santander, with their only win in that stretch a 5-2 result against Osasuna. Quique Sánchez Flores’ side have gone cold in front of goal over four matches, scoring just once outside that Osasuna rout. In our preview of Alavés vs Atletico Madrid we predicted an Atletico win on the road, and the 1-2 final score confirmed that call.

Most recent Head-to-Head Matches

The two sides have met four times across the last two La Liga seasons, with Celta winning twice, Alavés winning once and one match finishing level. The most recent clash finished 4-3 to Alavés, a reminder that both defenses can be breached when these teams meet.

🚨Check out our dedicated Celta Vigo vs Alavés stats page for more info.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Celta Vigo the favourite

• Moneyline Celta Vigo 1.87 | Alavés 3.80
• Draw 3.30

The market leans firmly toward Celta Vigo, pricing them around the 53% implied probability mark, roughly in line with the bookmaker consensus of 47% for a straight win. The gap between home and away odds is wide, almost 2.00 points, reflecting Alavés’ scoring drought on the road and Celta’s edge in shot volume and possession control at Balaídos.

Possible Starting Lineups

Celta Vigo possible starting eleven

Giráldez should stick with his 3-4-3 shape, with Marcos Alonso and Sergio Carreira Vilarino providing width from wing-back positions. Ilaix Moriba has been the most involved midfielder across recent minutes and his energy in the middle could be decisive against an Alavés side that struggles to keep the ball for long spells.

Alavés possible starting eleven

Quique Sánchez Flores typically sets up in a 4-2-3-1, with Pablo Ibanez Lumbreras and Ander Guevara shielding the back four. Lucas Boyé remains the lone focal point up top, and his movement will need support from Rebbach and Protesoni if Alavés hope to end their four-match winless run away from home.

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TipsGG Match Prediction

We predict Celta Vigo to win this one at home, likely by a 2-1 scoreline given how both defenses have leaked goals recently. Celta’s superior shot volume, pass completion and corner count all point to a side more capable of controlling territory, while Alavés’ four-match winless streak and lone goal in that span suggest their attack will struggle to create enough to turn the game. Perhaps the safer route for punters chasing value is backing Celta Vigo combined with both teams to score, since the head-to-head history between these clubs rarely stays goalless.

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