Sofia Quijada
| Prefer us on Google — see Tips.gg in Top Stories & Discover | Add on Google |
Alavés welcome Atletico Madrid to Mendizorroza sitting a surprising sixth in the table, just five points off the Rojiblancos in second. Quique Sánchez Flores’ side have been stingy defensively this season but their attack has gone cold, scoring only once across their last five matches. Atletico arrive fresh off a statement 2-1 derby win over Real Madrid, a result that papered over an otherwise bumpy run of form in La Liga this autumn.
Jonathan David has been Atletico’s sharpest weapon lately, netting three goals across his last four appearances, while Alejandro Grimaldo keeps chipping in with goals and assists from the back. For Alavés, Lucas Boyé remains the main outlet up front, though he has yet to convert his eight shots from the last five games into a goal. The standout number from the data set is Atletico’s 10 goals scored in their last five matches against Alavés’ solitary one, a gap that frames everything about this matchup.
| 🏆 Tournament: | La Liga 2026/2027, Regular Season |
| 🏟 Venue: | Estadio de Mendizorroza, Victoria-Gasteiz |
| 🗓️ Date: | 10.10.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 16:15 CEST |
Alavés vs Atletico Madrid prediction
We predict Atletico Madrid to win this one, most likely by a two-goal margin, perhaps 0-2 or 1-3. Their shot volume (66 attempts across the last five games against Alavés’ 33) and pass accuracy near 87% compared to Alavés’ 76% point to a side that should control large spells of possession and territory. Alavés’ recent 0-0 draw with Athletic Bilbao shows they can keep things tight at home, but their attacking numbers simply do not support backing them to find the net consistently against a defense built around Romero and Le Normand.
Alavés commit fewer fouls (37 over five games) and pick up fewer cards (4 yellows) than Atletico (46 fouls, 5 yellows), which tells us the visitors press higher and engage more duels, a pattern that often leads to more set-piece chances for the away side. Atletico’s corner count (19 versus Alavés’ 9 in the same stretch) backs this up, and it should matter heavily in the final tally.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Atletico Madrid to win both halves |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Alavés have drawn two and lost two of their last six matches, with their only win in that stretch coming against bottom-dwellers Osasuna. The 0-0 stalemate with Athletic Bilbao last time out continued a worrying scoring drought, Alavés have managed just one goal in their last five fixtures overall. In our preview of Athletic Bilbao vs Alavés we called a narrow Bilbao win, perhaps 2-1, but the match finished scoreless, so that call went against us. Defensive discipline has kept Alavés competitive, yet without goals from Boyé or Rebbach they look short of the firepower needed to trouble Atletico’s backline.
Atletico Madrid head into this fixture on the back of a big 2-1 derby win over Real Madrid, a result that snapped a patchy run that had included losses to Athletic Bilbao and Liverpool. Simeone’s side scored four past Osasuna and three past Real Sociedad in the games before that, showing the attack can fire when Grimaldo, Lee Kang-In and David combine effectively. In our preview of Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid we leaned toward a Real Madrid win, and the 2-1 scoreline for Atletico went against that call. The derby win should give Simeone’s group real confidence heading into Mendizorroza.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Alavés | Atletico Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2 | 4 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Alavés vs Atletico Madrid stats page for more info.
Alavés. Source: Official Facebook
Pre-game odds and win probability: Atletico Madrid the favourite
- Moneyline Alavés 4.30 | Atletico Madrid 1.79
- Draw 3.73
Bookmakers price Atletico as clear favourites at close to 53% implied probability, with Alavés sitting around 22% and the draw at roughly 25%. Those numbers line up with the quality gap seen in the shot and pass data, and we see little value in backing the hosts outright. The draw price looks the more interesting side bet given Alavés’ defensive record at home, but Atletico’s derby momentum should be enough to tip the outcome their way.
Possible Starting Lineups
Alavés possible starting eleven
- GK: Antonio Sivera
- DF: Jonny Otto, Nicolas Valentini, Ville Koski, Nahuel Tenaglia
- MF: Antonio Blanco, Pablo Ibáñez Lumbreras, Denis Suárez, Carlos Protesoni, Ander Guevara
- FW: Lucas Boyé
Sánchez Flores sticks with the 4-2-3-1 that has defined his recent squads, with Boyé as the lone point of attack supported by a busy midfield five. Koski’s goal threat from the back and Blanco’s defensive discipline in the double pivot are worth watching given how central they have been to Alavés’ structure lately.
Atletico Madrid possible starting eleven
- GK: Jan Oblak
- DF: Marc Pubill, Cristian Romero, Robin Le Normand, Alejandro Grimaldo
- MF: Koke, Johnny Cardoso, Lee Kang-In, Alejandro Baena Rodríguez, Giuliano Simeone Baldini
- FW: Jonathan David
Simeone keeps faith with the 4-2-3-1 shape that delivered the derby win, and David’s recent scoring form should earn him the nod up top over Álvarez. Grimaldo’s dual threat from left-back, both defensively and in attacking phases, makes him one to watch against an Alavés side that will look to exploit wide areas.
🏅Tips.GG premium subscription brings you even closer to WIN!🏅
- Gain access to the most profitable bets by using our analysis of over 60,000 monthly predictions from 1000+ sources.
- Premium users enjoy predictions from tipsters with the highest win rate while also gaining access to favorable odds, outcome calculation, and quick filter to favorable odds.
- Unlock the “Golden Bet” – our unique formula for the best high-odd betting opportunities! Get detailed reports on our system’s performance, including Winrate, ROI, and Yield.
Atletico Madrid. Source: Official Facebook
TipsGG Match Prediction
We predict Atletico Madrid to leave Mendizorroza with all three points, likely by a 0-2 or 1-3 margin. Alavés’ defense has shown it can frustrate stronger sides, but a goalless run of five matches leaves them with almost no margin for error against a team that just scored twice in a derby. Atletico’s superior shot volume, pass accuracy and corner output across the last five games all point the same direction, and perhaps the only question is by how much Simeone’s side win rather than whether they do.
