Rafael Nogueira
Brusque host Santa Cruz at Estadio Augusto Bauer on June 14 in a Campeonato Brasileiro Série C clash that carries real weight at the top of the table. Brusque sit joint-first on 18 points after nine games, level with Guarani on points but separated by goal difference. Santa Cruz trail in tenth place on 12 points, eight points behind, making this a genuinely high-stakes fixture for the visitors if they want to stay in the promotion conversation. What makes this match particularly interesting is the form contrast: Brusque have been one of the more consistent sides in the division, while Santa Cruz have been inconsistent despite their squad ranking suggesting far greater quality on paper.
Keep an eye on Brusque’s attacking unit, which has contributed to 15 goals in nine league outings, the joint-second best return in the division. For Santa Cruz, their defensive shape will be the key factor under coach Jeff Strasser, who has guided them to only eight goals conceded in nine matches, one of the tighter defensive records in the league.
Hot stat: Brusque have scored in eight of their nine Série C matches this season, netting 15 goals from nine games, an average of 1.67 per game. Their only blank came against Ferroviaria, who are one of the better defensive sides in the competition.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Campeonato Brasileiro Série C 2026, Regular Season |
| 🏟 Venue: | Estadio Augusto Bauer, Brusque, Brazil |
| 🗓️ Date: | 14.06.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 16:00 CEST |
Brusque vs Santa Cruz Prediction
Brusque are the clear home favourites here, and the numbers back that up. They are second in the table, playing at home, with a 45% win rate across 20 matches this year. Santa Cruz have won just eight of 22, a 36% rate, and their recent form reads as patchy: two draws in their last two outings after a mixed run of results. Brusque’s home advantage at Estadio Augusto Bauer is a real factor in the third tier of Brazilian football, where travel and pitch familiarity matter considerably.
We predict a Brusque win. Their consistency over nine games, combined with Santa Cruz’s inability to string wins together, points to the home side taking all three points. Santa Cruz have shown defensive resilience, conceding only seven goals all season, so a tight scoreline seems likely. The 1-0 or 2-1 territory feels most probable.
Both teams have averaged under 2 goals per game in recent outings. Santa Cruz’s last five results include two draws and two wins, with their goals output modest. Brusque’s attack has been productive, but Santa Cruz’s defense has held firm against stronger opponents, including a 0-1 loss to league leaders Guarani. Corners have been a feature of Brusque’s attacking play given their direct style, and we expect them to generate set-piece pressure throughout.
- We predict Brusque to win this match
- Under 2.5 goals looks the safer total given Santa Cruz’s defensive record
- Both Teams to Score: No, leaning toward a Brusque clean sheet or a narrow win
- Corners: Over 8.5 corners, with Brusque likely to press and force wide play
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Brusque to Win & Under 2.5 Goals |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Under 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 8.5 |
Team Analysis
Brusque have been one of the standout teams in Série C this season. Their last five results read: draw vs Barra (2-2), win vs Anapolis (1-0), loss vs Ferroviaria (0-1), win vs Ypiranga (3-0), draw vs Volta Redonda (1-1). The 3-0 demolition of Ypiranga is the most eye-catching result, showing their attacking capacity when facing weaker opposition. The 2-2 draw with Barra in their most recent match was a slight stumble, but Barra have been one of the more stubborn sides in the division, sitting on 11 points with five draws. Coach Higo Magalhães has built a side that wins when expected to but can be caught on the counter, as the Ferroviaria loss demonstrated. Their overall form across 15 matches reads as W-D-W-W-D-W-L-W-D-D-W-L-L-W-D from right to left, which is a solid record with only two back-to-back losses early in the sequence.
Santa Cruz arrive in mixed form. Their last five: draw vs Ferroviaria (1-1), draw vs Maringa FC (1-1), win vs Volta Redonda (2-0), win vs Inter de Limeira (2-1), loss vs Guarani (0-1). The back-to-back wins over Volta Redonda and Inter de Limeira showed they can be clinical, but the Guarani loss and the two subsequent draws suggest they struggle to maintain momentum. Coach Jeff Strasser’s side have been defensively sound, conceding only seven goals in nine games, the joint-best record in the division. Their problem is the other end: eight goals scored in nine matches is modest. The 1-1 draws against Ferroviaria and Maringa are characteristic of a team that can frustrate but not dominate. Their form strip of D-D-W-W-L-L-D-W-L-L-L-W-W-D-L from right to left tells a story of inconsistency.
Most Recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Brusque | Santa Cruz |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 7 | 5 |
| Total shots | N/A | N/A |
| Free kicks | N/A | N/A |
| Corner kicks | N/A | N/A |
| Total fouls | N/A | N/A |
| Pass accuracy (%) | N/A | N/A |
| Interceptions | N/A | N/A |
| Offsides | N/A | N/A |
🚨Check out our dedicated Brusque vs Santa Cruz stats page for more info.
Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: Brusque the Favourite
- Moneyline Brusque 1.91–2.32 | Santa Cruz 3.25–3.75
- Draw 2.70–3.05
- Over/Under Over 2.5 N/A | Under 2.5 N/A
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes N/A | No N/A
The bookmakers’ consensus gives Brusque a 43% implied probability of winning, which feels fair given their league position and home advantage. Santa Cruz at 26% reflects their inconsistency this season, and to be honest, those odds on the away win carry some value only if you believe in Strasser’s defensive setup holding and Santa Cruz nicking a goal on the break. The draw at 31% is also worth considering given Santa Cruz’s tendency to draw, but Brusque at home have been difficult to stop. The value bet sits with Brusque at around 1.91 with bet365, representing a reasonable return for what looks like the most likely outcome.
Santa Cruz. Source: Official Facebook
Possible Starting Lineups
Brusque Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Matheus Nogueira
- DF: Claudinho, Everton Alemão, Mauricio, Diego Mathias
- MF: Rodolfo Potiguar, Diego Mathias, Alex Ruan
- FW: Dentinho, Guilherme Queiróz, Diego Mathias
Brusque have been operating in a 4-3-3 or 4-4-2 shape under Higo Magalhães, with their strength coming through midfield compactness and quick transitions. Without granular lineup data from the last five matches, the above represents a likely setup based on the squad’s known profile. Their attacking unit has been the engine of their 15-goal return, so expect the front three to press high and force Santa Cruz into defensive errors.
Santa Cruz Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Victor Souza
- DF: Tiago Marques, Rayan, Jordão, Lucas Mota
- MF: Paulinho Moccelin, Gegê, Renato Alves
- FW: Thiaguinho, Joãozinho, Breno
Jeff Strasser tends to set Santa Cruz up in a 4-3-3 or a more defensive 4-5-1 when facing stronger opposition. Given they are away to a top-two side, a defensive-minded approach is probable. Their defensive four have been disciplined all season, conceding only seven goals, so Strasser will likely ask his midfield to sit deep and look to exploit Brusque on the counter. Thiaguinho and Joãozinho are the outlets to watch if Santa Cruz do find space in behind.
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Brusque. Source: Official Facebook
TipsGG Match Prediction
Brusque are the side to back here. They are joint-top of Série C, playing at home, with a better goals record and a stronger win rate this season than Santa Cruz. The visitors are defensively solid, which keeps this from being a free-scoring affair, but Brusque’s attacking output and home form make them clear favourites. We predict a 1-0 or 2-0 Brusque win, with the home side controlling possession and Santa Cruz struggling to create enough going forward. The best value bet is Brusque to win combined with under 2.5 goals, reflecting the likely tight but decisive nature of this fixture.
