The TipsGG Data team delivers a fresh Betting Digest covering three matchdays from Tuesday, April 21 through Thursday, April 23. This edition features eight expert predictions across La Liga, the Premier League, Ligue 1, the Championship, and the Coupe de France. The biggest odds in this batch come from the Real Madrid vs Alavés pick at 2.15, followed closely by Barcelona vs Celta at 2.10 and two more selections at the same price point. Read on for full breakdowns and reasoning from our analysts.
Tuesday Betting Digest, 21.04.2026
Mallorca vs Valencia
A crucial clash between table neighbors takes place at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix, with both sides trying to secure safety from the relegation zone. Valencia currently sit fourteenth with 35 points, while Mallorca are fifteenth on 34 points, just a handful above the danger zone with seven rounds remaining.
Since the arrival of Martín Demichelis, the islanders’ results have improved significantly. Under the Argentine coach the team has lost only once in their last five matches, claiming three wins. The form of top scorer Vedat Muriqi stands out: the Kosovan has netted 21 goals this season and scored in three of the last five games, bagging two braces. Home form has been a genuine fortress for Mallorca, who have won their last three matches at their own ground, including a 3:0 demolition of Rayo Vallecano.
Valencia, on the other hand, are going through another rough patch. After a decent stretch early in the year, Los Murciélagos have hit a results crisis again, losing their last two matches in a row against Celta (2:3) and Elbche (0:1). Away games remain the weak spot for Rubén Baraja’s side: the team has suffered 10 defeats in 16 away matches this season, averaging less than one goal per game on the road.
Considering the excellent form of the islanders, the home advantage, and Vedat Muriqi’s brilliant run of scoring, set against Valencia’s away struggles, the hosts look like clear favorites. A tense battle is expected, but Mallorca will have the better chance of tipping the scales in their favor. Prediction: Mallorca Handicap (0) – odds 1.72
Southampton vs Bristol City
Southampton are riding an incredible run of 19 matches unbeaten across all competitions, 16 of which ended in victories. Even that, though, has not been enough for automatic promotion to the Premier League: Coventry under Frank Lampard have already locked down first place in the Championship. The real fight is for second spot. With three rounds to go, Ipswich are considered favorites, but the Saints are breathing down their necks, trailing by just one point (though the rivals still have a game in hand).
Bristol City sit in 10th and no longer have even mathematical chances of reaching the playoffs, though relegation is not a concern either. The Robins lost their last home match to Norwich (2:4) after drawing 0:0 with QPR before that.
Current form and league motivation leave little room for doubt about a confident home win. The only potential concern is the upcoming FA Cup semi-final where the Saints face Manchester City on April 25, so the team might look to conserve energy. Prediction: Southampton win and total goals over 1.5 – odds 1.71
Brighton vs Chelsea
Chelsea’s hopes of qualifying for the Champions League are fading fast. Last weekend Liam Rosenior’s side suffered a fourth consecutive shutout defeat, something that had not happened to the Londoners in the Premier League for 28 years. In their last seven matches across all competitions, Chelsea have lost six times, four of those by heavy margins. Fresh injuries to two attacking players make it even harder to find any positives in the current situation.
Chelsea’s next opponents are a poor fit for a return to winning ways. Brighton are the best team in the Premier League by points accumulated over the last three months. Seven recent matches have brought Fabian Hürzeler’s men five wins and one draw. On top of that, in the last six head-to-head meetings with Chelsea, Brighton players have scored 13 goals.
The Seagulls can effectively leapfrog Chelsea in this round and move closer to European qualification. Bet: Brighton Handicap (0) – odds 1.82
Lens vs Toulouse
On Friday, Lens beat Toulouse in the league, but it required a spectacular comeback from 0:2 down. Sage’s team had a disastrous start, then gained a numerical advantage and snatched the win in the dying minutes. A total of 42 shots were directed at Toulouse’s goal. Lens very rarely lose at home: in 16 home matches across all competitions, they have suffered just two defeats.
Toulouse are going through what might be the worst spell since the start of the season. Since February, they have managed only two wins in 11 Ligue 1 rounds. In April alone, the club has lost three matches in a row, conceding at least three goals per game for a total of ten. That said, earlier in the cup Toulouse pulled off a surprise by upsetting Marseille at the Vélodrome.
This Tuesday they will try to pull off another heroic effort, but this time the chances look extremely slim. Bet: Lens individual total goals over 1.5 – odds 1.60
Real Madrid vs Alavés
Los Blancos managed four games in April: two defeats to Bayern Munich in the Champions League quarterfinals, a loss to Mallorca, and dropped points at home against Girona. This stretch has effectively ended Real Madrid’s title ambitions. The biggest European trophy will not be won by the 15-time champions this season, and a nine-point gap behind Barcelona with seven rounds left looks too steep to overcome.
Alavés are locked in a tense survival battle. The team is teetering on the edge with just a one-point cushion above the relegation zone. While they are unbeaten in their last four rounds, three of those ended in draws.
An interesting stat: in the hosts’ last seven matches both teams have scored, while for the visitors that run extends to five straight games. Real Madrid’s main headache is their defensive play. I expect Alavés to find their chance near the opposition goal, but Real’s attack should respond in kind. Prediction: Both teams to score and total over 2.5 – Yes, odds 2.15
Wednesday Betting Digest, 22.04.2026
Elche vs Atlético Madrid
At Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero, two teams with drastically different priorities meet as the season winds down. For the hosts every match is a final in the fight for survival; the visitors appear to have shifted their focus entirely to cup competitions.
Elche have had a roller-coaster season. After a solid first half of the campaign, Los Franjiverdes collapsed in the second, not recording their first win of the calendar year until late March. The last two home fixtures offer hope, though: narrow victories over direct rivals suggest Eder Sarabia’s team has finally woken up. The question is whether that awakening came too late, as the club still sits inside the relegation zone.
Atlético Madrid are going through a difficult spell. Diego Simeone’s men have lost six of their last seven matches across all competitions (including a penalty shootout defeat in the Copa del Rey). The most painful was the Copa del Rey final loss to Real Sociedad on penalties (3:4). Los Colchoneros are clearly living for the Champions League now, with the first leg of the semifinal just days away. Their top-four position in La Liga looks secure, so the only real motivation is the battle with Villarreal for the more prestigious third place and higher prize money.
The result will largely depend on the rotation El Cholo applies. There is a chance that after the cup fiasco Simeone will want immediate rehabilitation and field his strongest XI, but the risk of injuries ahead of European action may push him toward using reserves. Either way, Elche have nowhere to retreat. The hosts’ motivation, multiplied by the home-crowd factor, could well allow them to take points off the illustrious Madrid club for the second time this season. Prediction: Elche to win by 1 goal or draw – odds 2.00
Sheffield United vs Blackburn
Sheffield United snapped a six-match winless run by picking up back-to-back victories over Hull (2:1) and Watford (2:0). Since relegation from the Premier League, things have not gone smoothly. Last season the Blades lost out to Sunderland in the playoff race for a spot in the top flight; this time they are finishing mid-table. The defense has become unreliable: 59 goals conceded in 43 rounds, compared to just 36 across the entire previous campaign.
Although Blackburn’s defensive record looks slightly better (54 conceded), their table situation is critical. The team currently holds only a two-point buffer over Oxford United and risks going down. Four games without a win and an average of 0.9 goals per game raise serious concerns. In the final round, Rovers face a crunch match against Leicester.
The visitors struggle badly to score, and the lack of motivation for the hosts could dampen the spectacle. I expect Sheffield United to collect at least a point thanks to a class difference in a low-scoring affair. Prediction: Sheffield United Double Chance (1X) and total goals under 3.5 – odds 1.79
Strasbourg vs Nice
The second Coupe de France semifinal takes place at the Stade de la Meinau, where Strasbourg host Nice. This year’s edition of the tournament has drawn significant attention after the main favorite, PSG, was surprisingly eliminated at the Round of 32 stage. Of the four semifinalists, only Lens have practically guaranteed European football through the league, making the cup a route to Europe for the remaining three.
For both clubs, winning the trophy would secure a place in the Europa League next season. While Strasbourg still have theoretical paths to the European stage through Ligue 1 or their current Conference League run, for Nice the cup has become a last lifeline. Les Aiglons are enduring a dreadful league campaign, sitting just four points above the relegation zone, so a cup triumph is their only chance to salvage the club’s prestige.
Gary O’Neil has made his priorities clear: in the previous Ligue 1 round against Rennes, the Alsatians’ manager carried out extensive rotation, effectively sacrificing the league result to keep his key players fresh for the semifinal. Recent form also favors the hosts: Strasbourg have lost just twice in their last ten matches across all competitions. Nice, meanwhile, are in deep crisis, managing only two wins in the same period (including one on penalties) while losing five times.
In the most recent head-to-head, played in early April, Les Coureurs comfortably beat Les Aiglons 3:1. Given the current form of both teams and a long injury list in the visitors’ camp, Strasbourg look like favorites. The semifinal stakes and Nice’s desperate situation point toward a cagey encounter. The visitors will likely focus on defense, waiting for their chance, making a bet on low scoring quite justified. Prediction: Match total under 2.5 – odds 2.08
Burnley vs Manchester City
Burnley have not mathematically been relegated from the Premier League, but the situation is catastrophic. Even when the team manages to score first, any successful response from the opposition leads to collapse. The Clarets are winless in seven straight matches, losing three in a row. Burnley have produced sensational draws against big opponents this season, but everything has to align perfectly for that to happen.
Manchester City are now in the title race not just on paper. A win over Arsenal cut the gap to the leader to three points with a game in hand. Anything is possible; the Citizens do slip up against much weaker sides on occasion. But Pep Guardiola’s team have built serious momentum, as Arsenal, Liverpool, and Chelsea have all felt in recent fixtures.
I do not think Burnley can withstand Manchester City, even though they will squeeze everything they can from attacks on home turf. Bet: Total shots on target over 9.5 – odds 1.75
Barcelona vs Celta
Barcelona’s win over Atlético (2:1) at the Metropolitano was not enough to secure a Champions League semifinal berth. The Catalans once again fell short, a few steps away from a title they last won in the 2014/15 season. The primary target for Blaugrana now is La Liga, where Hansi Flick’s side hold a nine-point lead over Real Madrid.
Celta’s performance in the second leg against Freiburg was frankly disappointing. Los Celestes had rotated in the league, hinting at an attempt at a remontada, but no miracle materialized. The pressing question now: can the Celts hold on to a top-six European spot? Real Sociedad, buoyed by their Copa del Rey triumph, are breathing down their necks just two points behind.
I expect a high-scoring game. Both sides have defensive issues and potent attacks. I believe Barcelona will win a match that produces at least four goals. Prediction: Barcelona win and total goals over 3.5 – odds 2.10
Thursday Betting Digest, 23.04.2026
Rayo Vallecano vs Espanyol
At the Estadio de Vallecas, Rayo Vallecano, who currently sit three points above the relegation zone, host Espanyol, who hold an identical cushion over their opponents.
Since the start of the season, Los Relámpagos have turned their home ground into a genuine fortress, losing just three times across all competitions on their own turf. By the metric of fewest home defeats, Rayo Vallecano stand alongside giants like Real Madrid and Atlético. There is a flip side, though: the Madrid club are the most “peace-loving” team in the league at home with 8 draws. Only five wins in 15 home games point to clear difficulties in finishing opponents off.
Espanyol approach this fixture in a state of deep playing crisis. The Pericos’ winless run in the league stretches back to the start of the year and now stands at 14 consecutive matches. Only a solid points haul from the first half of the season has kept Manolo González’s side in mid-table. Current form does not promise a comfortable finish, and the threat of relegation is becoming increasingly real.
This match is a perfect chance for one of these teams to improve their standing. Despite Los Relámpagos not beating the Catalans since 2022, the hosts look like favorites. A win is vital for Rayo not only for league survival comfort but also to afford rotation in the next La Liga round ahead of their historic Conference League semifinal. Prediction: Rayo Vallecano to win – odds 2.10
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