Levi Rothermund
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Besiktas welcome Basaksehir to the Tüpraş Stadium with a point to prove. The Black Eagles sit sixth, a few results away from the top four, while Basaksehir hover just below mid-table, scrapping for consistency under Nuri Şahin.
Here’s an interesting wrinkle though. In the last four meetings between these two sides, Besiktas have never truly dominated on the scoreboard despite being heavy favourites again this time. Two wins, one draw, one loss, nothing has come easy against Basaksehir historically, even when the gulf in class looks obvious on paper.
Leandro Trossard has quietly become Besiktas’ main creative outlet, racking up 12 shots across his last four appearances and setting the tempo from the left. On the other side, Eldor Shomurodov has found something of a scoring touch for Basaksehir, with a goal and an assist in his last two outings, he’s the man most likely to trouble a Besiktas backline that has looked occasionally loose this season.
Hot stat: Besiktas have fired 59 shots across their last five matches compared to just 21 from Basaksehir in the same span, almost three times the volume. That gap alone tells you plenty about the expected territorial battle here.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Süper Lig 2026/27, Regular Season |
| 🏟 Venue: | Tüpraş Stadium, Istanbul |
| 🗓️ Date: | 26.10.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 17:00 CEST |
Besiktas vs Basaksehir prediction
We lean toward Besiktas here, but not blindly. The bookmakers have them at 69% implied probability, and honestly, the shot data backs that up. A 2-0 or 2-1 scoreline feels the most realistic outcome given how porous Basaksehir have looked away from home lately, conceding five to Amedspor and three to Galatasaray in their last five away trips.
Besiktas commit more fouls (47 over five matches against Basaksehir’s 39) and pick up almost double the yellow cards, 8 to 4. That’s the price of playing higher up the pitch and pressing aggressively, something Vincenzo Italiano has clearly instilled. Basaksehir, by contrast, sit deeper, concede fewer fouls, and look to break rather than build through midfield. Their pass accuracy, 82.2% against Besiktas’ 83.8%, is close enough, but the gap in shot creation (59 vs 21 across five games) says everything about who dictates play.
Maybe Basaksehir nick a goal on the counter, Shomurodov is capable of that. But stopping Besiktas’ volume of chances over 90 minutes looks like a tall order for a defense that’s shipped goals in bunches recently.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Besiktas to win both halves |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Besiktas’ form has been a bit of a rollercoaster lately. Their last outing ended 2-2 against Crystal Palace, a result that papered over some defensive cracks after they conceded a late equalizer. Before that came a flat 0-2 loss to Trabzonspor, then back-to-back wins over Hoffenheim and Kocaelispor. In our preview of Besiktas vs Crystal Palace we backed the hosts for a comfortable two-goal win, pointing to their heavy shot volume and Palace’s leaky road form. The 2-2 scoreline went against that call, Palace held firm late and snatched a point few saw coming.
Basaksehir’s recent run tells a story of grinding results out rather than dominating games. Their last match produced a 2-1 win over Gaziantep, a tight affair decided by fine margins. Before that, a goalless draw with Konyaspor showed the same cautious, low-event approach. Across their last five fixtures they’ve managed just 21 shots total, a number that speaks to how passive their attacking setup can be on the road, which matters a great deal heading into Istanbul.
🚨Check out our dedicated Besiktas vs Basaksehir stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Besiktas the favourite
- Moneyline Besiktas 1.37 | Basaksehir 7.01
- Draw 5.34
The market is overwhelmingly one-sided here. Besiktas at odds near 1.35-1.38 across most books reflects the shot and form gap we’ve already covered. Basaksehir drifting out past 7.00 with some bookmakers tells us the away win is viewed as a genuine long shot, not impossible, just unlikely given how Basaksehir have struggled creating chances on the road this season.
Possible Starting Lineups
Besiktas possible starting eleven
- GK: Alexander Nübel
- DF: Amir Murillo, Emirhan Topçu, Tiago Djaló, Emmanuel Agbadou
- MF: Wilfred Ndidi, Salih Özcan, Leandro Trossard, Fabio Miretti, Ilhan Fakili
- FW: Oh Hyeon-gyu
Italiano should stick with his trusted 4-2-3-1. Nübel has started every recent fixture and looks the clear number one. Trossard is the player to watch in the final third, his shot volume alone makes him the main creative threat, while Oh Hyeon-gyu leads the line after contributing directly to three goals across his last four appearances.
Basaksehir possible starting eleven
- GK: Muhammed Şengezer
- DF: Emin Bayram, Ousseynou Ba, Michal Karbownik, Saba Kharebashvili
- MF: Olivier Kemen, Jakub Kaluzinski, Umut Güneş, Andreas Skov Olsen, Ivan Brnic
- FW: Eldor Shomurodov
Nuri Şahin mirrors the 4-2-3-1 shape, likely setting up to absorb pressure and hit Besiktas on the break. Shomurodov is the one to watch up top, he’s directly involved in Basaksehir’s last two goals, and Brnic’s energy on the counter could cause problems if Besiktas push too many bodies forward.
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Besiktas. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
TipsGG Match Prediction
We think Besiktas get the job done here, probably 2-0 or 2-1, backed by a wide shot-volume edge and a Basaksehir attack that’s created almost nothing away from home lately. The home side’s discipline issues, more fouls and cards, are a minor concern, but not enough to offset the gap in quality on the ball. Our lean sits with the hosts, covered by both the underlying numbers and recent attacking output on each side.
