Liam Duckstein
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Belgium host Italy at the Roi Baudouin Stadium in Brussels in a decisive League A Group 1 fixture. Both sides sit within touching distance at the top of the table, and a result here will shape the group race for the rest of the campaign.
Italy lead the standings on goal difference, while Belgium still need points to keep pace. The last meeting between these nations ended 2-0 in Belgium’s favour, which adds a little extra edge to the rematch.
Two players deserve close attention. Kevin De Bruyne remains Belgium’s creative engine, and he scored and attempted four shots in the latest round. Pio Esposito is the main threat for Italy, having found the net twice in his most recent appearance.
Hot stat: Pio Esposito scored both goals in Italy’s latest outing and landed five shots on target from his attempts, making him the standout attacking performer in either squad.
| 🏆 Tournament: | UEFA Nations League 2026/27, League A Group 1 |
| 🏟 Venue: | Roi Baudouin, Brussels |
| 🗓️ Date: | 15.11.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 21:45 CEST |
Belgium vs Italy prediction
Our team sees the value in Italy or the draw. Belgium carry the home advantage and the bookmakers rate them as favourites at around 44 percent, yet the prices on Belgium at 2.17 look a touch short for a side that has won only nine of its fifteen recent matches. Italy have collected points consistently and remain hard to break down.
Belgium generally press with their wide attackers and rely on the creativity of De Bruyne. They committed 14 fouls across their latest five matches and received no yellow cards, which points to a disciplined but physical approach. Italy look more aggressive, picking up two yellow cards and committing 10 fouls, while they completed 316 passes and recorded 15 interceptions. That profile suggests Italy will compete for midfield control and disrupt Belgian rhythm.
Italy’s ability to win the ball back and their 4-3-3 structure should limit Belgium’s chances. We predict a tight contest where the visitors avoid defeat, and to be honest, the goals may be hard to come by on both ends. Italy scored three times in their latest five outings, but Belgium’s recent output of two goals suggests a cagey match.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Italy or draw (double chance) |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Under 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Under 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Belgium have won three of their last five matches, with two defeats mixed in. Their most recent result came against Turkey, and the sequence shows a team capable of winning while still giving away chances. In our preview of Turkey vs Belgium we called Belgium to win, and the 2-1 result delivered it.
Italy have collected three wins, one draw and one defeat over their last five outings. Their attack looks reliable, and they have scored at least three goals in several recent games. In our preview of Italy vs France we called France to win, and the 3-1 result went against us.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Belgium | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2 | 0 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Belgium vs Italy stats page for more info.
Belgium. Source: Official Facebook
Pre-game odds and win probability: Belgium the favourite
- Moneyline Belgium 2.17 | Italy 3.07
- Draw 3.74
The market gives Belgium a 44 percent chance, with Italy at 31 percent and the draw at 25 percent. The best available prices on Italy and the draw suggest the bookmakers undervalue the away side’s ability to hold firm. Our team considers Italy at 3.07 a reasonable price for a side with their consistency.
Possible Starting Lineups
Belgium possible starting eleven
- GK: Senne Lammens
- DF: Nathan Ngoy, Brandon Mechele, Maxim De Cuyper, Timothy Castagne
- MF: Youri Tielemans, Nicolas Raskin, Kevin De Bruyne, Charles De Ketelaere, Diego Moreira
- FW: Jeremy Doku
Belgium line up in a 4-2-3-1 shape. Tielemans and Raskin provide the screen in front of the back four, while De Bruyne and De Ketelaere operate between the lines. Doku remains the main outlet on the counter, and his pace should test the Italian full backs. Keep an eye on De Bruyne, who makes the difference in the final third.
Italy possible starting eleven
- GK: Gianluigi Donnarumma
- DF: Alessandro Bastoni, Riccardo Calafiori, Giorgio Scalvini, Michael Kayode
- MF: Nicolò Barella, Sandro Tonali, Antonio Vergara
- FW: Pio Esposito, Nicolò Cambiaghi, Sebastiano Esposito
Italy set up in a 4-3-3 formation. Barella and Tonali drive the midfield, while Vergara offers additional energy. Pio Esposito leads the line, and his movement will decide how Italy use the wide forwards. Bastoni and Calafiori should be strong on the ball, and we expect Italy to build patiently from the back.
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Italy. Source: Official Facebook
TipsGG Match Prediction
Our team predicts Italy will avoid defeat in Brussels, with the draw as the most likely finish. Italy’s steady results and disciplined pressing give them the edge over a Belgian side that has struggled for consistency. We back the double chance on Italy or the draw, supported by Under 2.5 goals and BTTS No.
Read also: Belgium vs Italy Head-to-Head: Record, Stats & Form (Updated November 2026)
Read also: Predicted Lineups: Belgium vs Italy – Expected XIs and Team News
