Levi Rothermund
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Turkey host Belgium at the Gürsel Aksel Stadium in Izmir with their Nations League campaign already dead on arrival. Four games, four defeats, zero points and a 2-11 goal difference tell the story of a side that has completely lost its way under Sergen Yalçın. Belgium sit third on six points and still hold a mathematical route to the top two, which makes this a must-win for them too. The reverse fixture in October ended 3-0 to the Red Devils, and Mark van Bommel’s men will fancy a repeat.
Two players shape this fixture more than most. Arda Güler carries the creative burden for a Turkey side that has scored just twice in the group, and the Real Madrid man needs support that simply has not arrived. On the other side, Jérémy Doku’s direct running tormented the Turkish back line in the first meeting, and his pace against a defence that has conceded eleven goals in four games is the matchup to watch.
The hot stat here is brutal: Turkey have shipped 11 goals across four group matches while scoring only two, the worst defensive record in League A Group 1 by a distance.
| 🏆 Tournament: | UEFA Nations League 2026/27, League A Group 1 |
| 🏟 Venue: | Gürsel Aksel Stadium, Izmir |
| 🗓️ Date: | 12.11.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 19:00 CEST |
Turkey vs Belgium prediction
We think Belgium win this, and we think they win it with room to spare. The 3-0 scoreline from the October meeting was not flattering; Belgium controlled the game and Turkey never looked like scoring. Since then Turkey have lost to Italy twice and France once, conceding eight goals in those three matches alone. A side that cannot keep the ball out of its own net against this calibre of opposition will not survive 90 minutes against Doku, Lukaku and the creative engine behind them.
Value sits in the away win combined with goals. Belgium have scored six in four group games, and Turkey’s desperation to avoid a pointless campaign could open the game up late. The home crowd in Izmir will push early, but Yalçın’s side has shown nothing in recent weeks to suggest they can turn pressure into chances.
On style: Turkey’s recent matches have been messy, high-fouling affairs born of chasing games, and that discipline problem plays straight into Belgian hands with set-piece delivery of real quality. Belgium under van Bommel prefer possession and quick vertical passes through midfield; against a Turkish block that collapses deep, expect wide overloads and cutbacks. Neither team’s card or foul data from the last five matches is available to us, so we lean on the pattern of results instead, and that pattern points one way.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Belgium -1 handicap |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Turkey’s last outing was a 1-3 home-style collapse against Italy, a defeat that followed a 0-3 battering by Belgium and a 1-4 loss to the same Italians. Before this group began, they did beat the USA 3-2 in a June friendly, but competitive football has been merciless. Four straight defeats, two goals scored, eleven conceded. Honestly, there is nothing in the recent record to build a case for the home side beyond home advantage and pride. Yalçın needs a response, and fast, because the fanbase in Izmir will not tolerate another passive display.
Belgium arrive off a 1-4 defeat to France, their second loss to Les Bleus in this group. That result stings, but the broader picture is healthier: wins over Italy (2-0) and Turkey (3-0) bookended a 0-1 slip against France. Two wins and two losses in the last 30 days, a 57% win rate across 2026. Van Bommel’s side beats the teams below them and loses to the ones above; Turkey are firmly in the category they handle.
🚨Check out our dedicated Turkey vs Belgium stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Belgium the favourite
- Moneyline Turkey 3.50 | Belgium 1.91
- Draw 3.85
The market makes Belgium near 50% favourites, and we agree with the direction. At 1.91, the away win is not generous, but it is fair given the gulf in current form. Turkey at 3.50 looks like a trap; a team on four straight defeats with a -9 goal difference rarely deserves that price even at home. The draw at 3.85 has some appeal for contrarians, since Turkey will fight for a first point, but we would not back it.
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Belgium. Source: Official Instagram. Edited photo
TipsGG Match Prediction
Belgium to win, and we would take them at -1 on the handicap for better value. Turkey have conceded at least three goals in three of their four group games, and their attack has managed two goals all campaign. Doku’s pace against a nervous back four, plus Belgium’s set-piece threat, should decide this inside an hour. Our call: a 3-0 or 3-1 away win, with Over 2.5 goals and BTTS No as the supporting plays. Maybe Turkey keep it tight for half an hour; after that, the class gap takes over.
