Liam Duckstein
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Belarus and San Marino meet in Budapest for a League C Group 1 fixture that, on paper, looks heavily one-sided. Both sides sit at the bottom of the standings after two rounds, yet their routes there tell different stories. Belarus have at least shown some defensive discipline, drawing with Finland and losing narrowly to Albania, while San Marino have shipped ten goals without scoring once.
The interesting wrinkle here is the venue. Neither team plays its home games at Illovszky Rudolf Stadion normally, so this fixture lands on effectively neutral ground in Budapest, something that could blunt whatever “home” edge Belarus would otherwise carry into this game.
German Barkovskiy has logged the most minutes among Belarus forwards in recent matches and carries their set-piece threat, with three free kicks taken in his last two appearances. Nicola Nanni remains San Marino’s only real attacking reference point, leading the squad in shots and minutes despite the side’s total lack of goals.
Hot stat: San Marino have conceded ten goals across their last two matches (0-7 to Finland, 0-3 to Albania) without scoring a single one themselves, a goal difference of minus ten that is the worst in the entire group.
| 🏆 Tournament: | UEFA Nations League 2026/27, League C Group 1 |
| 🏟 Venue: | Illovszky Rudolf Stadion, Budapest |
| 🗓️ Date: | 03.10.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 18:00 CEST |
Belarus vs San Marino prediction
We predict a Belarus win here, and the value sits not in the moneyline itself but in how comfortably they do it. San Marino have failed to score in four of their last five outings and have not looked remotely capable of troubling a mid-table European defence, let alone a side that just held Finland scoreless. Belarus, for all their own attacking struggles, should find enough gaps against a San Marino back line that conceded ten in two games.
Belarus have committed 37 fouls and picked up six yellow cards across their last five matches, numbers that point to a side willing to break up play physically rather than dominate possession outright. San Marino, despite collecting fewer cards, have been overrun territorially, managing just 505 passes at 339 accuracy compared to Belarus’s 757 passes at 575. That gap in control should translate into sustained pressure and, eventually, goals.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Belarus to win to nil |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 7.5 |
Team Analysis
Belarus arrive on the back of a scoreless draw with Finland, a result that kept them in the contest despite managing very little going forward. Before that they lost 0-2 to Albania and drew 2-2 with Burkina Faso, a pattern of being competitive without finishing chances. In our preview of Finland vs Belarus we called for a comfortable Finland win built on their attacking sharpness, and the 0-0 scoreline that followed went against that read, with Belarus showing far more defensive resolve than expected.
San Marino’s last match ended in a 0-3 loss to Albania, extending a run that has seen them fail to score in four of five outings and lose four of their last five. Before that came the 0-7 thrashing by Finland, a result that still stands as their heaviest defeat of the campaign. In our preview of San Marino vs Albania we predicted a comfortable Albania win with San Marino drawing another blank, and the 0-3 final score delivered exactly that outcome.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
Belarus and San Marino have no recent competitive meetings on record, so there is no head-to-head table to draw from for this fixture.
🚨Check out our dedicated Belarus vs San Marino stats page for more info.
San Marino. Source: Official Facebook
Pre-game odds and win probability: Belarus the favourite
- Moneyline Belarus 1.08 | San Marino 21.00
- Draw 8.50
Bookmakers price Belarus as overwhelming favourites, with odds around 1.08 to 1.10 reflecting an implied win probability near 90 percent. San Marino’s odds stretching past 20.00 with some books offering 27.00 underline just how little faith the market has in an upset, and our own read of the squad lists supports that pricing. The draw at roughly 8.50 to 10.00 offers some intrigue given Belarus’s recent habit of drawing blanks in attack, but we still lean toward a home win covering the result markets.
Possible Starting Lineups
Belarus possible starting eleven
- GK: Fedor Lapoukhov
- DF: Zakhar Volkov, Kirill Pechenin, Vladislav Kalinin, Kirill Gomanov
- MF: Max Ebong, Aleksandr Selyava, Valeri Gromyko
- FW: German Barkovskiy, Evgeni Malashevich, Vitali Lisakovich
Goncharenko should stick with the 4-3-3 that has featured in Belarus’s last five matches. Lapoukhov keeps his spot in goal after playing every minute available in that role, while Volkov and Pechenin anchor a back four that has logged full minutes recently. Barkovskiy is the player to watch up front given his set-piece responsibility and consistent playing time among the forward options.
San Marino possible starting eleven
- GK: Mirco De Angelis
- DF: Michele Cevoli, Giacomo Benvenuti, Alessandro Tosi, Marco Pasolini
- MF: Marcello Mularoni, Lorenzo Capicchioni
- FW: Samuel Pancotti, Gabriel Capicchioni, Nicholas Giacopetti, Nicola Nanni
Cevoli is expected to keep the 4-2-3-1 shape that San Marino have used across their last five games. Nanni leads the attacking line and remains the squad’s most involved forward by playing time and shot volume, though his output so far has not translated into goals. Mularoni and Capicchioni should sit as the double pivot tasked with limiting Belarus’s territorial control.
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San Marino. Source: Official Facebook
TipsGG Match Prediction
We predict Belarus to win this one, likely by a two-goal margin or more. San Marino simply have not shown anything in their last five matches to suggest they can keep this close, having conceded ten goals in their last two outings alone. Belarus’s own scoring struggles keep us cautious about backing a heavy goal total, but a routine win to nil looks the most probable script. Perhaps the only genuine risk for Belarus is complacency against a side this limited, though their disciplined recent draws suggest that is unlikely. To be honest, there is little reason to expect anything other than a comfortable away defeat for San Marino here.
