Levi Rothermund
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Two very different stories collide at the BayArena. Leverkusen sit second in the Europa League table with a perfect record and zero goals conceded, while Marseille occupy 34th spot with three straight losses and a single goal scored in the competition. There is an odd twist buried in the numbers though. Marseille have actually won their last two matches in all competitions, including a 2-0 away win just days ago, so this is not quite the free-falling side the league table suggests.
Patrik Schick has been the sharpest finisher on the pitch lately, three goals and an assist from his last five outings, and he tends to punish any hesitation in the box. On the other side, Igor Paixão has racked up 20 shots in five games for Marseille, more than any teammate by a distance, so his movement off the left could be the away side’s best route back into this one.
Hot stat: Leverkusen have not conceded a single goal across their three Europa League league phase matches this season, 8-0 on aggregate, the only unbeaten defensive record left in the competition alongside Benfica.
| 🏆 Tournament: | UEFA Europa League 2026/27, League Phase |
| 🏟 Venue: | BayArena, Bayer Leverkusen |
| 🗓️ Date: | 05.11.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 21:00 CEST |
Bayer Leverkusen vs Marseille prediction
We think Leverkusen win this comfortably enough, though not without conceding something. Marseille’s defense has leaked goals in bursts all season, yet their attack has found the net in nearly every recent fixture outside the Europa League group itself. Backing the hosts on the handicap, Leverkusen -1.5, feels like better value than the straight moneyline given how short the home price already sits.
Leverkusen have committed fewer fouls per game than Marseille across the last five matches (58 vs 65) and carry a similar passing accuracy close to 87% for both sides, so this won’t be a scrappy stalemate on the ball. Marseille’s card count is actually lower (9 yellows vs 13), but their higher foul tally suggests a side willing to break up play physically when they lose the ball, which could invite set-piece trouble against a Leverkusen team already dangerous from dead balls.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Leverkusen -1.5 Asian Handicap |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 10.5 |
Team Analysis
Leverkusen’s recent run reads strong on paper, seven wins, a draw and just two defeats across their last fifteen, but the most recent result stings a little. They fell 2-4 to Stuttgart in their last outing, conceding four at home despite leading twice. In our preview of Bayer Leverkusen vs Stuttgart we backed the hosts to win with goals at both ends, and the 2-4 scoreline went against that call completely. Before that slip, though, they had beaten 1. FC Nürnberg 5-2, Hoffenheim conceded three without reply the game before, and their Europa League form remains spotless. The defensive cracks shown against Stuttgart are worth watching, but their underlying numbers in Europe stay excellent.
Marseille arrive having won their last two games, a 2-0 victory over Toulouse and a 4-3 thriller against Le Havre before that, but their Europa League campaign has been a disaster, three defeats from three with a single goal scored. In our preview of Marseille vs Toulouse we leaned toward a home win for Marseille, and the 2-0 final score backed that primary call even though the game stayed goalless at the other end, contrary to our secondary BTTS lean. Bruno Génésio’s side can score, clearly, Amine Gouiri and Himad Abdelli both carry two goals from their last five appearances, but conceding six goals in three Europa League matches shows how exposed this defense gets against stronger continental opposition.
🚨Check out our dedicated Bayer Leverkusen vs Marseille stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Bayer Leverkusen the favourite
- Moneyline Bayer Leverkusen 1.38 | Marseille 7.00
- Draw 5.25
The market leaves no doubt here, Leverkusen are priced as heavy favourites across every bookmaker we checked, with implied probability sitting well above 65%. That lines up with the form and the league phase table, honestly it would be a surprise if the price moved much before kickoff. Marseille’s away odds near 7.00 reflect a side that has lost all three of its continental matches this season, and bettors clearly see little reason to back an upset here.
Possible Starting Lineups
Bayer Leverkusen possible starting eleven
- GK: Mark Flekken
- DF: Lucas Vázquez, Edmond Tapsoba, Jarell Quansah, Miguel Gutiérrez
- MF: Aleix García, Equi Fernández, Jonas Hofmann, Ibrahim Maza, Malik Tillman
- FW: Patrik Schick
Carles Martínez tends to stick with his 4-2-3-1, and the personnel above has featured in every single one of the last five matches almost without exception. Schick leads the line as the clear focal point, while Maza and Hofmann have combined for five goals between them recently and should operate just behind him. Aleix García’s distribution from deep, three assists in five games, makes him worth watching too.
Marseille possible starting eleven
- GK: Jeffrey De Lange
- DF: Ulisses Garcia, Nayef Aguerd, CJ Egan-Riley, Emerson Palmieri
- MF: Geoffrey Kondogbia, Tochukwu Nnadi, Amine Harit, Himad Abdelli, Igor Paixão
- FW: Amine Gouiri
Bruno Génésio also favours a 4-2-3-1, and De Lange’s 17 saves across five games mark him as the busiest goalkeeper on either side, a sign of how much work Marseille’s defense tends to give him. Paixão’s shot volume stands out again here, and Gouiri’s combination of goals and assists up top gives this side its only realistic path to troubling Leverkusen’s back line.
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Marseille. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
TipsGG Match Prediction
We expect Leverkusen to control this one from the opening whistle. Their defensive record in Europe this season is close to flawless, and Marseille have struggled badly against continental opposition, conceding six goals across three group games. The hosts should score at least twice, maybe more given Schick’s current scoring touch, and we would not be shocked if Marseille nick one back late through Gouiri or Paixão given their recent domestic scoring form. A 3-1 or 2-1 finish for Leverkusen feels like the realistic range, backed by the -1.5 handicap and over 2.5 goals with BTTS Yes as the supporting picks.
