Rafael Nogueira
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Avai welcome Londrina PR to the Ressacada in a fixture that smells of relegation trouble for both sides. Avai sit 17th with 26 points from 25 games, Londrina are rock bottom of the playoff-adjacent pack in 18th on 21 points. The odd wrinkle here: despite being three places and five points worse off in the table, Londrina have scored nine goals across their last five matches while Avai have managed just two. A bottom-table clash rarely carries this much attacking contrast.
Watch Herbert Mateus Almeida De Oliveira for Londrina, five goals involvements combined (2 goals, 1 assist) in five games with 18 shots, by far the most dangerous attacker on either team. For Avai, Daniel Penha has produced two goals from midfield in four appearances and remains their main outlet when they do create. Our hot stat of the week: Londrina’s attack (9 goals, 85 shots in five games) dwarfs Avai’s output (2 goals, 51 shots) by nearly double the shot volume, a strange split given the two teams sit one place apart near the bottom of Série B.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Campeonato Brasileiro Série B 2026, Regular Season |
| 🏟 Venue: | Estádio da Ressacada, Florianopolis |
| 🗓️ Date: | 08.10.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 00:30 CEST |
Avai vs Londrina PR prediction
We predict Londrina PR cover the double chance (draw or win) and both teams find the net. Avai arrive on a run of five losses and a draw in their last six league games, scoring only twice in five outings, which does not match the near-favourite tag the bookmakers hand them at home. Londrina, despite the worse league position, have won two of their last six and put nine goals on the board in five matches, a scoring rate that should trouble an Avai defense that has leaked goals all season (-8 goal difference).
Avai’s discipline numbers (15 yellow cards, 57 fouls, 67% pass accuracy in the last five) point to a side that fouls often but struggles to keep the ball. Londrina post similar foul numbers (68 fouls, 11 yellows) but complement it with far more total shots (85 vs 51) and corners (37 vs 19), suggesting they commit bodies forward with more purpose. That shot and corner gap should carry over into goal-scoring chances and set-piece situations on Thursday.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Herbert Mateus Almeida De Oliveira to score or assist |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Avai’s form reads five losses and a draw across their last six matches, a run that includes a 0-1 defeat to Ceara in their most recent outing, a 0-3 thrashing by Criciuma before that and a 1-2 loss to Goias. Their only point in that span came from a 1-1 draw with Vila Nova. The pattern is consistent: Avai create little (just two goals in five games) and give up chances at the other end. In our preview of Avai vs Ceara we backed Ceara to avoid defeat on the back of Avai’s toothless attack, and the 0-1 final score delivered that call, even if the goals tally stayed under the total we also flagged.
Londrina PR’s last match ended in a 0-2 loss to Criciuma, continuing a defense that has conceded in four of its last five games. Before that they lost 0-2 to Vila Nova and 1-2 to Fortaleza, though a 6-0 demolition of Ponte Preta and a 2-1 win over Sao Bernardo show the attack can click when the opponent sits deep or struggles defensively. In our preview of Londrina PR vs Criciuma we called the away side to leave with at least a point and backed under 2.5 goals, and the 0-2 result delivered both halves of that call cleanly.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Avai | Londrina PR |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2 | 3 |
The two sides’ last competitive meeting swung Londrina’s way by a 3-2 scoreline, the only recorded head-to-head result between them outside of this upcoming fixture.
🚨Check out our dedicated Avai vs Londrina PR stats page for more info.
Avai. Source: Official Facebook
Pre-game odds and win probability: Avai the favourite
- Moneyline Avai 2.10 | Londrina PR 3.50
- Draw 3.20
Bookmakers lean on home advantage here, giving Avai around 44% implied win probability against Londrina’s 26%, with the draw sitting at 29%. We think that gap overstates Avai’s current level. A team with five losses in six should not carry a near-even-money price against an opponent that has outscored them nine to two over the same stretch. Perhaps the market is pricing position in the table over recent momentum, and that is exactly the kind of mismatch we look to fade.
Possible Starting Lineups
Avai possible starting eleven
- GK: Bruno
- DF: Reynaldo Cesar Moraes, Allyson Aires Dos Santos, Douglas da Silva Teixeira, Jefferson Maciel
- MF: Zé Ricardo, Paulo Vitor, Daniel Penha, Luiz Henrique, Wenderson
- FW: Felipe Vizeu
Allan Aal keeps faith with the 4-2-3-1 that has featured in all five recent matches. Allyson Aires Dos Santos and Reynaldo Cesar Moraes have played every minute of the last five fixtures and anchor the back line, while Daniel Penha, the side’s top scorer of late, sits just behind Felipe Vizeu, the forward with the most minutes among Avai’s attacking options.
Londrina PR possible starting eleven
- GK: Mauricio Kozlinski
- DF: Wallace Reis da Silva, Gabriel Santos Cordeiro Lacerda, Heron, Kaue Leonardo De Souza Prado
- MF: Thalis Henrique Cantanhede, Lucas Marques
- FW: Guilherme Cachoeira Silveira, William Pottker, Herbert Mateus Almeida De Oliveira, Pablo Dyego
Rogério Micale also sticks with 4-2-3-1. Wallace Reis da Silva has started every one of the last five games at full-time minutes, and Herbert Mateus Almeida De Oliveira, the clear focal point of the attack with 18 shots in five appearances, should operate just off Pablo Dyego or in a more advanced role depending on how Micale sets up against Avai’s back four.
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Londrina PR. Source: Official Facebook
TipsGG Match Prediction
We back Londrina PR to avoid defeat at the Ressacada, with both teams scoring and the total finishing above 2.5. Avai’s attack has gone quiet at the worst time, two goals in five matches, and their defense has shipped goals in nearly every recent outing. Londrina arrive with more scoring punch (nine goals in five games) and a better recent trend, two wins in their last six against Avai’s zero. To be honest, the bookmakers’ home favourite tag on Avai looks shaky given the underlying form, and we expect Londrina’s attacking numbers to carry more weight than the table position suggests.
