Rafael Nogueira
The Copa Sul-Sudeste 2026 reaches its climax as Avai host Chapecoense in the Final at the Estádio da Ressacada in Florianopolis. Two Brazilian sides with a well-documented rivalry meet in a knockout finale where form has been shaky on both ends. Avai arrive off a 1-2 home defeat to Criciuma, while Chapecoense lost 0-1 to Palmeiras in their last outing. The bookmakers see this as an unusually open contest, with the draw currently holding the highest probability at 38%, and the previous H2H meeting in this very tournament ending 1-2 in Chapecoense’s favour.
Midfielder Rafael Carvalheira is the standout name for Chapecoense, combining a goal, five interceptions, and 103 passes across three recent appearances. For Avai, midfielder Paulo Vitor has been the most productive outfield player, registering a goal from 141 passes and two shots across three matches.
Hot stat: Chapecoense have attempted 41 total shots across their last five matches compared to Avai’s 25, yet both sides have scored just once in their most recent games, pointing to a match where chances may not convert cleanly.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Copa Sul-Sudeste 2026, Final |
| 🏟 Venue: | Estádio da Ressacada, Florianopolis |
| 🗓️ Date: | 04.06.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 01:00 CEST |
Avai vs Chapecoense Prediction
The draw is the value play here. Both teams have been inconsistent, with Avai winning just 2 of their last 8 matches and Chapecoense 3 of 9. Their last two meetings in 2026 both ended level, and their head-to-head record across eight matches shows four draws. In a high-stakes final, where neither side has demonstrated the kind of form that inspires confidence in a decisive win, the 2.36-2.48 range on the draw represents genuine value.
Avai under coach Cauan Almeida have conceded 47 fouls across five matches, the highest in this comparison, which suggests a physical, disruptive defensive approach. Chapecoense, by contrast, commit fewer fouls (34) and hold a clear edge in pass accuracy (1040 accurate passes vs Avai’s 913), meaning they will likely control possession for longer stretches. Avai’s 6 yellow cards and 1 red card in five matches indicate disciplinary risk, which could open space for Chapecoense set-pieces. Chapecoense generate more corners (7 vs 5) and shots, but their conversion rate remains low, reinforcing the case for a tight, low-scoring match.
| 🔥 Hot Tip: | Draw at Half-Time |
| ⚽ Total Goals: | Under 2.5 |
| 💥 Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯 Total Corners: | Over 8.5 |
Team Analysis
Avai have managed just 2 wins from their last 8 matches, with their form reading a turbulent mix of defeats and draws. Their most recent five fixtures tell a difficult story: losses to Criciuma (1-2), Goias (0-2), and Vila Nova (0-2), a win over Volta Redonda (3-0), and a draw (2-2) against the same opponent. Scoring has dried up badly, with only 1 goal in their last five matches based on team statistics, and the defensive unit has conceded freely against sides ranked far below Chapecoense’s level. The 3-0 win over Volta Redonda stands as the only clean performance, and it came against a side ranked 3261st in the world.
Chapecoense arrive with a slightly better recent record but have their own inconsistencies. They beat Novorizontino 2-0 but then drew 2-2 with them in the same period. They fell 1-2 to Cruzeiro and 2-3 to Remo, before losing 0-1 to Palmeiras in their most recent match. The Palmeiras loss, against a side ranked 24th in the world, was a competitive display despite the single-goal defeat. Chapecoense’s attacking output across five matches (3 goals, 41 shots) is stronger than Avai’s, and their defensive interceptions (34) are notably higher. Coach Fábio Matias will look to exploit Avai’s disciplinary issues through set-piece situations.
Most Recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Avai | Chapecoense |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 8 | 8 |
| Total shots | 25 | 41 |
| Corner kicks | 5 | 7 |
| Total fouls | 47 | 34 |
| Interceptions | 28 | 34 |
| Offsides | 6 | 6 |
🚨 Check out our dedicated Avai vs Chapecoense stats page for more info.
Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: Draw the Favourite
- Moneyline Avai 3.07 | Chapecoense 2.85
- Draw 2.36
- Over/Under Over 2.5 — | Under 2.5 —
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes — | No —
The draw at 2.36 (Rocketplay) or 2.48 (Bons) is the most attractive option given the context. Chapecoense at 2.78-2.85 also carries merit as the side with better shot volume and passing stats, but the home factor for Avai at the Ressacada cannot be dismissed entirely. Avai’s moneyline price of 3.07 reflects their poor recent form, and we agree that backing them to win outright in 90 minutes is a low-value proposition. The draw pricing across both bookmakers sits in a sweet spot for a final between two sides that have drawn four of eight H2H matches.
Possible Starting Lineups
Avai Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Otávio
- DF: Wesley, Wallison, Douglas da Silva Teixeira, Mateus Quaresma Correia
- MF: Luiz Henrique, Paulo Vitor, Zé Ricardo, Wenderson
- FW: Daniel Penha, Rafael Bilú
Avai’s most likely setup under Cauan Almeida is a 4-2-3-1, which matches their recent formation data. Otávio takes the gloves having featured in two of the last five matches, with Igor José Bohn as backup. The backline of Wesley, Wallison, Douglas Teixeira, and Quaresma Correia is the most consistent four from recent appearances. Luiz Henrique anchors midfield with strong interception numbers (5 across three matches). Paulo Vitor is the player to watch in attack, being the only Avai midfielder to register a goal in this stretch. Daniel Penha carries a red card risk after accumulating a red card in recent fixtures, which is worth monitoring in a final setting.
Chapecoense Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Anderson Silva da Paixão
- DF: João Paulo, Bruno Leonardo, Bruno Pacheco, Marcos Vinicius
- MF: Rafael Carvalheira, Camilo Reijers de Oliveira, Giovanni Augusto, Jean Carlos
- FW: Neto Pessoa, Sebastiao Enio Santos de Almeida
Chapecoense’s 4-4-2 is the formation Fábio Matias has relied on across recent matches. Anderson Silva da Paixão starts in goal, having made 10 saves across three appearances. João Paulo is the most complete outfield player in this squad, contributing a goal, an assist, and 161 passes across three matches from the right defensive position. Bruno Pacheco provides width and attacking threat from left back with two assists. Rafael Carvalheira is the key central figure, combining a goal with strong defensive work. Yannick Bolasie, if selected, brings directness in wide areas, with 8 shots across two appearances being the highest individual tally in recent Chapecoense matches.
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Chapecoense. Source: Official Instagram. Edited photo
TipsGG Match Prediction
We predict a draw in this Copa Sul-Sudeste Final. The numbers across five recent matches show two sides struggling to score, with Avai netting just 1 goal and Chapecoense 3 across their respective last five outings. The H2H record reinforces this, with four draws from eight meetings and both goals tallies identical at 8. Chapecoense’s superior shot volume and passing accuracy give them the edge in possession, but Avai’s home ground and the high-pressure final context tend to produce conservative, balanced football. To be honest, neither team has shown the clinical edge needed to win this outright in 90 minutes, and the draw at 2.36-2.48 is where the value sits. Our secondary pick is Both Teams to Score, with both sides having found the net in four of the last six H2H encounters, and the final’s open nature likely to produce at least one goal per side before any potential extra time.
