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The 2026 Nitto ATP Finals run from 15 to 22 November at Inalpi Arena in Turin, and the field looks nothing like the recent years of Novak Djokovic and Jannik Sinner dominance. Sinner’s knee injury ended his campaign. Djokovic’s hopes died in Paris. The year’s last major indoor prize has no defending champion in the draw, and for the first time in a long stretch the title race feels genuinely open.
Melbet has posted its outright market, and Carlos Alcaraz Garfia sits alone at the top at 1.9. Seven players have already locked their places in the eight-man field. Frances Tiafoe is still fighting for the final seat, and the bookmaker prices him anyway at 21.
How the Nitto ATP Finals Work
Eight singles players and eight doubles teams qualify through a full season of results. The PIF ATP Live Race To Turin resets every January and counts points only from that calendar year, so finishing inside the top eight after the Rolex Paris Masters means you ranked among the eight best performers of the season, not merely the eight highest in a rolling ranking.
The format is a round robin. Two groups of four, each man plays the other three in his group, and the top two advance to the semi-finals, where the group winner meets the runner-up from the opposite group. Every singles match, the final included, is best of three. An undefeated champion banks 1,500 ranking points, split as 200 per round-robin win, 400 for the semi-final and 500 for the final, plus up to $5,171,000 in singles prize money. Turin has hosted since 2021 and holds the event through 2027.
The Qualified Field for 2026
Seven names are confirmed for Turin, three of them debutants.
| Player | Key 2026 achievements | ATP Finals history |
|---|---|---|
| Alexander Zverev | Roland Garros and US Open champion, Year-End No. 1, Race leader | Champion in 2018 and 2021 |
| Carlos Alcaraz | Australian Open champion and Career Grand Slam, Doha title, Monte-Carlo final | 2025 finalist |
| Ben Shelton | US Open finalist, titles in Montreal, Munich, Dallas and Stuttgart | Second consecutive appearance |
| Daniil Medvedev | Four titles, Indian Wells final, 50-plus wins | 2020 champion, seventh qualification |
| Flavio Cobolli | Roland Garros final, Acapulco title, Wimbledon quarter-finals | Debut |
| Arthur Fils | Cincinnati Masters title, Barcelona title, career-high No. 7 | Debut |
| Rafael Jodar | Grand Prix Hassan II title | Debut |
The eighth seat is still open. Frances Tiafoe is the man chasing it, and Melbet keeps him in the market at 21 to win it all, 9 to reach the final and 3.4 to make the semis. A title run from the last man through the door would be some story. The odds say it stays a story.
Melbet Odds: Who Will Win the 2026 ATP Finals
Here is the full outright market from Melbet, together with the prices for reaching each knockout stage.
| Player | Winner | To reach final | To reach semi-finals |
|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Alcaraz Garfia | 1.9 | 1.4 | 1.07 |
| Alexander Zverev | 4.9 | 2.1 | 1.33 |
| Ben Shelton | 7.8 | 3.8 | 1.6 |
| Daniil Medvedev | 9.3 | 4.7 | 1.59 |
| Rafael Jodar | 12.7 | 5.5 | 2.55 |
| Frances Tiafoe | 21 | 9 | 3.4 |
| Arthur Fils | 23 | 5.7 | 2.6 |
| Flavio Cobolli | 41 | 15 | 4.7 |
The Finalist Combinations
Melbet also prices the most likely final matchups.
| Final pairing | Odds |
|---|---|
| Carlos Alcaraz Garfia and Alexander Zverev | 3 |
| Ben Shelton and Carlos Alcaraz Garfia | 5.4 |
| Alexander Zverev and Daniil Medvedev | 10 |
| Ben Shelton and Daniil Medvedev | 18 |
Our Read on the Market
Carlos Alcaraz Garfia at 1.9 carries an implied probability of about 52.6%. The price is short but honest. He won the Australian Open to complete the Career Grand Slam, added the Doha title, reached the Monte-Carlo final and went one match short in Turin a year ago as the 2025 finalist. We think he is the right favorite.
Alexander Zverev at 4.9 is the value. He arrives as Year-End No. 1 and Race leader with Roland Garros and US Open titles in his bag, and he has won this event twice. Honestly, we expected a shorter number than 4.9 for a two-time champion sitting at the top of the Race.
Ben Shelton at 7.8 is the speculative play. The US Open finalist collected four titles in 2026 across Montreal, Munich, Dallas and Stuttgart, and a lefty serve on an indoor court is a problem for anyone in this field. His reach-semi price of 1.6 sits a hair behind Daniil Medvedev at 1.59, so Melbet expects a tight fight for the second weekend.
Medvedev himself at 9.3 is a longshot with real pedigree. The 2020 champion is qualifying for the seventh time on the back of four titles, an Indian Wells final and 50-plus wins. At that price, he is worth respecting.
Debutants rarely win this event, and three of them are in the draw. Flavio Cobolli at 41 did reach the Roland Garros final this year, so the talent is real, but the price tells you where the market puts him. The odd one is Rafael Jodar at 12.7 against Arthur Fils at 23. Jodar’s season lists a Grand Prix Hassan II title, while Fils won a Cincinnati Masters title and climbed to a career-high No. 7. Maybe Melbet knows something about the draw that we do not, but we think Fils at 23 is the better longshot bet.
Our prediction: Alcaraz lifts the trophy, with Zverev as the each-way cover at 4.9 and Shelton worth a small stab at 7.8.
Before You Bet
Odds move as the field and the draw settle, so check the live prices at Melbet before you commit. If outright markets are new to you, our how to bet on sports guide breaks down the basics, and the sports betting glossary covers terms like implied probability. Set a budget before the round robin starts and keep your stakes inside it, and read our page on responsible gaming if betting stops being fun. You can also review your rights as a player. All odds in this article were current at the time of writing and follow our editorial principles.
Alcaraz at 1.9 is the favorite we agree with. Zverev at 4.9 is the bet we would actually place.