Sofia Quijada
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San Mamés hosts a Basque derby that finds both clubs on opposite trajectories right now. Athletic Bilbao sit ninth with a game in hand but have won just two of their last seven fixtures, while Alavés have climbed to sixth on the back of a 5-2 thrashing of Osasuna, only to lose their last two on the bounce. The interesting wrinkle: Bilbao have won three of the last five meetings between these sides, yet Alavés arrive having outscored their hosts 8-7 across their own last five matches league wide, a sign this fixture could be tighter than the bookmakers’ 57% home price suggests.
Watch Nico Williams closely on the Bilbao left, his pace and dribbling have produced a goal and an assist across the last five matches and he remains the side’s most direct route to goal. On the other side, Lucas Boyé has been Alavés’ entire attacking edge, scoring four goals in his last five outings, exactly half his team’s total output in that stretch.
Hot stat: Boyé’s four goals from five appearances account for 50% of Alavés’ total goals in that span, while Athletic Bilbao’s entire squad has managed only seven goals across the same number of matches, a stark gap in individual firepower that could decide this derby.
| 🏆 Tournament: | La Liga 2026/2027, Regular Season |
| 🏟 Venue: | San Mamés Stadium, Bilbao |
| 🗓️ Date: | 19.09.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 16:15 CEST |
Athletic Bilbao vs Alavés prediction
We lean toward Athletic Bilbao to win at home, but not comfortably. Bilbao’s home advantage at San Mamés and their superior squad depth in midfield should be enough to edge a game that, on recent evidence, will not be one sided. Alavés have lost their last two matches by conceding late, and their away form away from Mendizorroza has been inconsistent, three wins from six on the road this term. Our team backs Athletic Bilbao to win, though we would not be shocked by a draw given how both sides have struggled for consistency this month.
Style wise, Alavés commit more fouls (66 to Bilbao’s 53 across the last five matches) and pick up more offsides (19 to 9), a sign Boyé and Mariano Díaz are frequently pushing the offside line in behind. Bilbao’s passing numbers are cleaner, 1888 completed passes against Alavés’ 1269 in the same window, which should let them dictate tempo at home. Expect a physical, stop start match where set pieces matter, Bilbao’s 32 corners to Alavés’ 24 over the last five games hints at a territorial edge that could translate into goals from dead ball situations.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Athletic Bilbao to win either half |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Athletic Bilbao’s last five results read loss, loss, win, win, draw, a run that shows real inconsistency against a mixed bag of opposition. The 3-0 win over Atlético Madrid was their standout performance, but the follow up 1-1 draw with a struggling Elche side raises questions about their finishing, especially with Gorka Guruzeta and Maroan Sannadi both goalless in this stretch. The 0-2 defeat to Barcelona and 1-3 loss to Sevilla before that expose a defense that can be opened up by sharper attacking sides.
Alavés go into this one having lost back to back matches against Racing Santander (1-2) and Valencia (0-1), a slide that undoes the momentum built from a 5-2 win over Osasuna and a narrow 1-0 win against Villarreal earlier in the run. In our preview of Alavés vs Valencia we backed the hosts to win comfortably off the back of their goal scoring form, but the eventual 0-1 result went against us, a reminder that Alavés’ attack can stall against well organized defenses, something Athletic Bilbao will look to replicate here.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Athletic Bilbao | Alavés |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 6 | 5 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Athletic Bilbao vs Alavés stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Athletic Bilbao the favourite
- Moneyline Athletic Bilbao 1.63 | Alavés 5.25
- Draw 3.75
The odds imply Athletic Bilbao as clear favourites, roughly a 61% chance of victory against Alavés’ 19%. That gap looks slightly wide given Alavés’ superior league position and goal difference this season, perhaps a sign the market is weighting home advantage and Bilbao’s derby record too heavily. We still side with the favourite here, but see value building for those willing to back a draw or a narrow Alavés result given the away side’s attacking output this season.
Possible Starting Lineups
Athletic Bilbao possible starting eleven
- GK: Unai Simon
- DF: Jesus Areso, Yeray Álvarez, Aymeric Laporte, Johaneko Louis-Jean
- MF: Mikel Jauregizar, Iñigo Ruiz De Galarreta, Nico Williams, Oihan Sancet, Alex Berenguer
- FW: Iñaki Williams
Terzic sticks with the 4-2-3-1 that has featured in each of the last five matches. Laporte anchors the back line alongside Yeray, while Sancet operates just behind Iñaki Williams with Nico Williams and Berenguer stretching play on the flanks. Nico Williams remains the player to watch, his output has carried Bilbao through a shaky run of results.
Alavés possible starting eleven
- GK: Antonio Sivera
- DF: Jonny Otto, Nicolas Valentini, Ville Koski, Nahuel Tenaglia
- MF: Antonio Blanco, Ander Guevara, Carles Aleñá, Pablo Ibanez Lumbreras, Angel Pérez Hidalgo
- FW: Lucas Boyé
Quique Sánchez Flores also favours a 4-2-3-1, with Blanco and Guevara shielding a back four built around Valentini and Koski. Boyé leads the line alone up top and has been directly involved in the bulk of Alavés’ goals this season, making him the man Bilbao’s defenders need to track closest.
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Alaves. Source: Official Website
TipsGG Match Prediction
We predict Athletic Bilbao edge this one at San Mamés, most likely by a single goal margin, perhaps 2-1, given how open both defenses have looked recently. Bilbao’s home comforts and superior passing control should tip the balance, though Alavés’ attacking numbers, led by Boyé, make a clean sheet unlikely for either side. To be honest, this looks like a match where goals at both ends carry more value than the outright winner market alone.
