Sofia Quijada
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Alavés sit third in La Liga after five rounds, riding a spell of form few expected from a side that flirted with relegation last term. Valencia arrive at Mendizorroza rock bottom with a single point, and the numbers behind that collapse are brutal: one goal scored across their last five matches against eleven for the home side. Quique Sánchez Flores has built a compact, physical team that presses high and scores from set pieces, while Óscar Sánchez is still searching for a formula that gets his forwards firing. We predict this gap in confidence shows on the scoreboard.
Watch Mariano Díaz for Alavés, he has produced three goals and three assists across his last five appearances and remains the side’s most reliable creative outlet. For Valencia, Arnaut Danjuma carries the attacking burden with eleven shots in five games, though he is yet to convert any of them, a stat that says plenty about Valencia’s finishing crisis this season.
Hot stat: Alavés have scored 11 goals in their last five matches, Valencia have managed just 1 in the same span, the widest offensive gap between two La Liga sides heading into a fixture this season.
| 🏆 Tournament: | La Liga 2026/2027, Regular Season |
| 🏟 Venue: | Estadio de Mendizorroza, Victoria-Gasteiz |
| 🗓️ Date: | 15.09.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 20:00 CEST |
Alavés vs Valencia prediction
Alavés to win is our top pick here, backed by a table position that reflects real quality this season, not just a good run. Valencia have lost four of their last five, shipped five to Barcelona and three to Deportivo, and their away form on the road offers little resistance. Alavés at home have won three of five recently and their attack, led by Mariano Díaz and Lucas Boyé, should find gaps against a defense that has conceded goals freely all campaign.
Alavés commit more fouls (75 in five matches) and pick up more cards (13 yellows) than Valencia (51 fouls, 8 yellows), a sign of their physical, disruptive style under Sánchez Flores. Valencia hold more of the ball, they have racked up 2,121 passes to Alavés’ 1,616 in the same stretch, but possession without penetration has been their problem all season. Expect Alavés to sit off a little, let Valencia pass sideways, and hit them on turnovers and set pieces, where the hosts have scored heavily.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Alavés to win both halves |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Alavés have lost only once in their last five, that defeat coming 1-2 away at Racing Santander in their most recent outing. Before that they thrashed Osasuna 5-2, beat Villarreal 1-0, drew 1-1 with Rayo Vallecano and won 3-0 against Getafe. The Racing loss looks like a blip rather than a trend, the underlying goal output (11 scored in five games) points to a side scoring freely regardless of scoreline swings.
Valencia’s slide continues unabated. Their last match ended 0-1 at home to Sevilla, following a 0-5 humbling by Barcelona, a 1-3 loss at Deportivo La Coruña, a 0-1 defeat to Real Betis and a scoreless draw with Celta Vigo. Four losses and a draw from five, just one goal scored in that entire run, this is a team low on confidence heading into a tough away trip.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Alavés | Valencia |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 6 | 5 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Alavés vs Valencia stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Alavés the favourite
- Moneyline Alavés 1.76 | Valencia 5.00
- Draw 3.30
Bookmakers price Alavés as clear favorites, and the market moves align with our reading of the form table. The gap between the moneyline prices, roughly 1.76 against 5.00, reflects a Valencia side that has struggled to find results anywhere this season, home or away. We see little value backing the draw at 3.30 given how one-sided this fixture looks on paper.
Possible Starting Lineups
Alavés possible starting eleven
- GK: Antonio Sivera
- DF: Nahuel Tenaglia, Jonny Otto, Ville Koski, Youssef Enriquez, Xanet Oláiz Ibarzábal
- MF: Carlos Protesoni, Antonio Blanco, Carles Aleñá, Denis Suárez
- FW: Abderrahmane Rebbach
Sánchez Flores has stuck with a back five in every one of his last five games, and the personnel behind that shape has barely changed. Rebbach leads the line alone, but Mariano Díaz and Lucas Boyé are the likely rotation options who could come off the bench to add fresh legs and goals in behind him. The 5-4-1 gives Alavés defensive solidity while still allowing Aleñá and Suárez to spring quick transitions.
Valencia possible starting eleven
- GK: Stole Dimitrievski
- DF: José Gayà, César Tárrega Requeni, Jesús Vázquez
- MF: José Luis García Vayá, Javi Guerra, Filip Ugrinic, Ryunosuke Sato, Aliou Dieng
- FW: Hugo Duro, Arnaut Danjuma
Óscar Sánchez has favored a back three with five in midfield across his recent games, likely searching for control in games his side has mostly lost anyway. Danjuma is the one attacker generating shots, and Hugo Duro’s movement up top will need service that has been largely absent from this Valencia group in recent weeks.
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Valencia. Source: Official Website
TipsGG Match Prediction
Alavés should have too much for a Valencia side that has lost four of five and scored only once in that stretch. The home side’s 11 goals in their last five matches against Valencia’s single goal in the same window tells the real story here. Our team leans toward Alavés to win, with the goal difference likely landing comfortably in the hosts’ favor, perhaps by two clear goals given how porous Valencia have looked defensively away from home this season.
