Liam Duckstein
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Atalanta welcome Kairat Almaty to Bergamo with both sides sitting far lower in the League Phase table than their reputations suggest. Atalanta are 15th with just three points from two games, while Kairat occupy 31st spot with only one point and a minus-four goal difference. The gap in class still looks enormous on paper, but neither club arrives here in anything close to good form, and that is the quiet subplot behind a fixture the bookmakers see as a near-formality.
Nikola Krstović has been Atalanta’s most reliable outlet in front of goal, scoring three times in his last five appearances, and his movement against a Kairat back line that has shipped six goals in two Conference League matches already should matter. On the other side, Marc Gual carries most of Kairat’s attacking threat on the road, with seven shots in his last two outings, the highest shot count on his team by some distance.
The outstanding stat belongs to Kairat’s defense: across their two League Phase matches so far they have conceded six goals, giving them one of the leakiest records in the entire 36-team pool. That number alone tells punters most of what they need about tonight’s likely direction.
| 🏆 Tournament: | UEFA Conference League 2026/27, League Phase |
| 🏟 Venue: | New Balance Arena, Bergamo |
| 🗓️ Date: | 05.11.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 19:45 CEST |
Atalanta vs Kairat Almaty prediction
We predict Atalanta to win this one, and honestly the value sits less in the moneyline and more in how comfortably they do it. A -1.5 handicap looks like the smarter route given the gulf in attacking output, 80 shots fired by Atalanta in their last five matches against just 26 from Kairat over the same stretch. Perhaps Atalanta’s recent slump, three losses and two draws in five, makes this feel less obvious than it should, but that run came against Serie A and continental opposition, not a side shipping six goals in two European fixtures.
Atalanta’s passing numbers dwarf Kairat’s, 2345 completed passes to 710 over the same five-game sample, and their fouling count sits higher too at 46 compared to Kairat’s 29, a byproduct of playing on the front foot and committing more bodies forward. Kairat’s discipline numbers are tidier simply because they see less of the ball and spend longer stretches defending in their own third. Expect Atalanta’s pressing to force mistakes early, and expect Kairat to sit deep and look for moments on the counter rather than control the game.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Atalanta to win to nil |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Atalanta’s last five results read loss, draw, draw, loss, loss, a genuinely worrying stretch for a club of their stature. The most recent match ended in a 0-3 defeat to Parma, a result that exposed defensive gaps Sarri will want fixed quickly. In our preview of Atalanta vs Parma we backed the hosts to win comfortably off the back of their attacking numbers, and the 0-3 scoreline went firmly against that call. Before that they drew 4-4 with Frosinone and 2-2 with Fiorentina, games where their defense leaked goals just as freely as their attack found them. The shot volume and creative numbers remain strong, Charles De Ketelaere and Nicola Zalewski both carry real end product, but the back four has been porous for a month now.
Kairat Almaty’s last five results show more resilience than the table suggests, draw, draw, loss, win, draw. Their most recent match, a 1-1 draw with Altai, kept a run going where they have lost only once in five. That one loss came against Panathinaikos, a 1-5 hammering in the League Phase. In our preview of Kairat Almaty vs Panathinaikos we called a routine away win for the Greek side covering a heavy handicap, and the 1-5 result backed that primary call up fully. Kairat have shown they can hold their own domestically, but against a team playing with Atalanta’s shot volume and passing control, those defensive cracks tend to open fast.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
Atalanta and Kairat Almaty have no previous competitive meetings on record. This fixture marks their first encounter, so there is no head-to-head trend to lean on here.
🚨Check out our dedicated Atalanta vs Kairat Almaty stats page for more info.
Kairat Almaty. Source: Official Facebook
Pre-game odds and win probability: Atalanta the favourite
- Moneyline Atalanta 1.13 | Kairat Almaty 15.00
- Draw 7.00
The prices reflect the gap in quality better than most European fixtures this season. Odds around 1.13 to 1.18 on Atalanta leave almost no margin for an upset, and bookmakers give Kairat only around 7% of the implied win probability. We think the market is right about the direction of this result, perhaps even light on how one-sided it could get given Kairat’s defensive numbers this season.
Possible Starting Lineups
Atalanta possible starting eleven
- GK: Marco Carnesecchi
- DF: Davide Zappacosta, Giorgio Scalvini, Thomas Kristensen, Lorenzo Bernasconi
- MF: Éderson José dos Santos, Mario Pašalić, Charles De Ketelaere, Nicola Zalewski, Lazar Samardzic
- FW: Nikola Krstović
Sarri’s 4-2-3-1 looks set to lean on Éderson and Pašalić to screen the back four, freeing De Ketelaere and Zalewski to combine around Krstović, who has been the main source of goals lately. Watch for Zappacosta pushing high from right-back, he has the most passes completed of anyone in the squad over the last five games.
Kairat Almaty possible starting eleven
- GK: Temirlan Anarbekov
- DF: Erkin Tapalov, Aleksandr Martynovich, Luis Mata, Aleksandr Shirobokov
- MF: Aleksandr Mrynskiy, Gustavo Mendonca, Jaakko Oksanen, Olzhas Baybek, Oiva Jukkola
- FW: Marc Gual
Arutyunyan’s men should mirror the 4-2-3-1 setup with Mrynskiy and Mendonca holding the middle while Gual leads the line alone. Jukkola and Oksanen will need to track back often given how much territory Atalanta are likely to dominate, and Anarbekov could be busy from the opening whistle.
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Atalanta. Source: Official Facebook
TipsGG Match Prediction
We predict Atalanta to win this one comfortably, and to be hones the main question is by how much. Their shot and pass numbers dwarf what Kairat have produced in the last five games, and Kairat’s defense has already shown it can crack under sustained pressure, conceding six goals in just two League Phase matches. Atalanta’s own form has been shaky away from this competition, but a home match against opposition this limited in quality should offer the platform for a reset. Our lean is Atalanta to win, keep a clean sheet, and see the game go over 2.5 total goals as they press for an early lead and keep pushing once ahead.
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