Sofia Quijada
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Fifth-tier Anaitasuna host La Liga’s Alavés at Txerloia Futbol Zelaia in Gipuzkoa, a Copa del Rey Round 1 tie separated by more than 24,000 places in the world club rankings. The hosts have opened the season perfectly with two wins and 10 goals, while the visitors arrive winless in five and freshly beaten 1-6 by Barcelona. Bookmakers make Alavés 85% favourites, yet the hottest stat in this fixture belongs to their defence: 11 goals conceded across those five matches. Jeff Strasser’s side will believe a goal is there to be taken, and Quique Sánchez Flores needs a routine win to stop the rot.
Two players decide how comfortable this gets for the favourites. Lucas Boyé leads the Alavés attack with 403 minutes and 10 shots across his last five outings, while Pablo Ibanez Lumbreras anchors the midfield as the minutes leader with a team-high 11 interceptions over the same run.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Copa del Rey 2026/27, Round 1 (Spain) |
| 🏟 Venue: | Txerloia Futbol Zelaia, Gipuzkoa |
| 🗓️ Date: | 10.11.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 20:00 CEST |
Anaitasuna vs Alavés prediction
Our best value pick is Alavés to win by a three-goal margin at the -2.5 handicap. The outright price bottoms out at 1.01-1.04, an implied probability above 97% that pays roughly 3% on turnover, money we refuse to tie up. The handicap prices the actual question, whether a rotated La Liga squad beats a regional-league defence by three or more. Alavés generate 12.4 shots per game against top-flight defences, and against a part-time low block that volume should double. Anaitasuna’s 5-0 and 5-2 wins came against Tedeon, opposition rated thousands of places below even them, so the 10 goals say nothing about survival at this level. We predict Alavés to win 4-1.
On style: Alavés commit 14.4 fouls and collect 1.8 yellow cards per game with a red card in the last five, the profile of a side chasing matches from behind. Pass accuracy sits at 78.6%, modest for the top flight, and 11 offsides in five points to attackers living on the shoulder. Anaitasuna’s metrics are untracked at this level, so the results speak: 10 scored, 2 conceded, and a 4-2-3-1 built for transition rather than possession. Expect Alavés to hold around 70% of the ball, force set pieces from sustained pressure and test a defence that has never faced this tempo.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Alavés -2.5 handicap (win by 3+ goals) |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 3.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Under 10.5 |
Team Analysis
Anaitasuna recent form
Anaitasuna have played two competitive matches this season and won both, hammering Tedeon 5-0 and then 5-2 in the most recent outing, a 10-2 aggregate that makes them one of the round’s most productive attacks on paper. The form guide shows four wins and four draws across the last 13 matches, so back-to-back victories represent their best spell in months. Strasser, the former Luxembourg captain, has organised a side that scores freely at this level. The caveat is stark: Tedeon sit thousands of ranking places beneath Alavés, and nothing in the hosts’ recent schedule approximates the pace, pressing and finishing quality arriving in Gipuzkoa. Their 4-2-3-1 must survive 90 minutes of sustained pressure.
Alavés recent form
Alavés are winless in five, with two draws, three defeats, 4 goals scored and 11 conceded. The last match, a 0-0 at Sevilla on 6 November, at least ended a run of four straight games conceding at least once. The 1-6 defeat by Barcelona on 31 October sits inside a stretch that also brought 1-2 losses to Celta Vigo and Atletico Madrid and a 1-1 with Malaga. The pattern is consistent: Toni Martínez and Lucas Boyé have taken 10 shots each across the last five matches, the team averages 12.4 attempts per game, yet the defence leaks against anyone with pace. In our preview of Sevilla vs Alavés we called a 2-1 Sevilla win with both teams scoring, and the 0-0 result went against us. A Round 1 tie against regional opposition is the reset button Quique Sánchez Flores needs, and we expect him to rotate heavily.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
These teams have no recent competitive meetings. The ranking gap of more than 24,000 places and the regional draw mean this Round 1 tie is their first senior encounter on record.
🚨Check out our dedicated Anaitasuna vs Alavés stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Alavés the favourite
- Moneyline Anaitasuna 30.00 | Alavés 1.03
- Draw 12.80
The bookmaker consensus puts Alavés at 85%, and the average prices imply even more, better than 97% at 1.03. Anaitasuna at 30.00 and the draw at 12.80 price a cupset the class gap makes close to impossible. Over/Under and BTTS prices were not posted at the time of writing, so our handicap and goals picks in the table above cover those markets instead. We see no value in the outright line; the margin and goals angles are where this fixture pays.
Possible Starting Lineups
Alavés possible starting eleven
- GK: Antonio Sivera
- DF: Nahuel Tenaglia, Ville Koski, Nicolas Valentini
- MF: Pablo Ibanez Lumbreras, Antonio Blanco, Denis Suárez, Ander Guevara, Carles Aleñá
- FW: Lucas Boyé, Abderrahmane Rebbach
We project the 3-5-2 Flores has used across the last five matches, built on playing time: Sivera has every minute in goal with 11 saves, Tenaglia (450), Koski (379) and Valentini (306) form the back three, and Ibanez Lumbreras (395 minutes, 11 interceptions) partners Blanco in the engine room. Boyé (403 minutes, 10 shots) and Rebbach (318) start up front, with Toni Martínez and Mariano Díaz the likeliest impact substitutes. Heavy rotation is expected against this level of opposition, but this eleven reflects the minutes leaders and the 3-5-2 shape the data supports.
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Anaitasuna. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
The Verdict
Alavés win 4-1. The visitors’ 12.4 shots per game against top-flight defences becomes 20-plus against a part-time back line, and Boyé, Martínez and Rebbach should each get clear looks at goal. Anaitasuna’s 10 goals in two matches earn respect, and with Alavés keeping only one clean sheet in five, the hosts’ set-piece threat keeps BTTS Yes live. Strasser’s side will sit deep in their 4-2-3-1 and chase transitions; fitness, squad depth and pressing intensity decide the final half hour. Our full call: Alavés -2.5, over 3.5 goals, BTTS Yes and under 10.5 corners, with the 4-1 scoreline as the anchor result.
