Sofia Quijada
| Prefer us on Google — see Tips.gg in Top Stories & Discover | Add on Google |
Sevilla host Alavés at the Ramón Sánchez-Pizjuán with both squads carrying contrasting baggage into matchday 12. The home side sit 6th on 17 points and remain the competition’s most bipolar attacking outfit, while Alavés arrive winless in a month and freshly humiliated by Barcelona. The inside angle here is discipline: Alavés have taken points off Sevilla in two of the last three meetings, and Quique Sánchez Flores will happily turn this into a foul-heavy, low-tempo scrap if Luis Garcia Plaza’s men allow it.
The two players who decide this fixture are Lucas Boyé for Alavés and Felix Correia for Sevilla. Boyé has committed 11 fouls and taken 9 shots across his last four appearances, a target man who lives off second balls and set pieces. Correia, meanwhile, has 2 goals, 2 assists and 8 shots in five games and is the one Sevilla wide player capable of breaking a packed block.
The hot stat: Sevilla have scored 10 goals across their last five matches, while Alavés have managed just 4 and conceded 11 in the same span.
| 🏆 Tournament: | La Liga 2026/2027, Regular Season |
| 🏟 Venue: | Estadio Ramón Sánchez-Pizjuán, Seville |
| 🗓️ Date: | 06.11.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 22:00 CEST |
Sevilla vs Alavés prediction
We predict a Sevilla win, most likely 2-1. The market prices Sevilla at roughly 49% and odds of 1.92 do not overstate them: this is a side that beat Osasuna 2-0 and crushed Sporting Hortaleza 3-0 in its two most recent home-adjacent results, and its 88 shots across five matches nearly double Alavés’ 53. The risk is defensive. Ten goals conceded in five games, including a 1-4 demolition by Real Madrid and last weekend’s 1-3 home defeat to Getafe, keep the clean-sheet angle off the table. Alavés have found the net in four of five, so the value is not in the win alone but in pairing it with goals at both ends.
Style-wise, these teams clash in tempo. Sevilla commit 76 fouls and collect 11 yellows per five-match sample, pressing aggressively high up the pitch, while Alavés sit deeper, foul less (53) and rely on transitions through Rebbach and Boyé. Pass accuracy is nearly identical (79.6% vs 81.8%), so midfield control will come down to Fofana and Agoumé winning second balls against Blanco and Guevara. Sevilla’s 22 corners in five matches against Alavés’ 14 suggest sustained territorial pressure, which feeds the corner market below.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Sevilla to win & both teams to score |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 ✅ |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes ✅ |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Under 9.5 ⬇️ |
Team Analysis
Sevilla’s last five reads W-W-L-D-L in raw frequency terms: two wins, two defeats, one draw, and the trend is unsettling. The most recent outing, a 1-3 home collapse against Getafe, exposed the same defensive fragility that Real Madrid punished 4-1 a fortnight earlier. To be honest, the attack has carried this team all season. Isaac Romero and Robbie Ure have 4 goals between them, Ure leads the squad with 12 shots, and Alfonso González adds volume with 9 attempts. In our preview of Getafe vs Sevilla we called a controlled Sevilla win to nil, and the 1-3 result went against us in full, which makes Friday’s response the real betting question.
Alavés are a team in freefall disguised as a draw specialist. Four matches in the last 30 days produced zero wins, and the sequence 1-1 Malaga, 1-2 Celta, 1-2 Atletico, 1-6 Barcelona shows a side that scores one goal per game and concedes at will against anything above mid-table. The Barcelona loss at least confirmed their one reliable trait: they keep running and keep shooting late. Toni Martínez fired 8 shots without reward, Boyé converted once, and Sivera made 9 saves in that game alone. In our preview of Barcelona vs Alavés we called a comfortable Barcelona win, and the 1-6 result delivered it with room to spare.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Sevilla | Alavés |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (last 5 H2H) | 5 | 6 |
The last five meetings tell a tight story: Alavés won 2-1 in September 2024 and again 1-0 in the Copa del Rey Round of 32 last December, Sevilla answered with a 2-1 league win in September 2025, and the sides drew 1-1 in both April 2025 and February 2026. Alavés are unbeaten in the last two encounters, which is exactly why the 1.92 on the home win deserves scrutiny.
🚨Check out our dedicated Sevilla vs Alavés stats page for more info.
Alavés. Source: Official Facebook
Pre-game odds and win probability: Sevilla the favourite
- Moneyline Sevilla 1.92 | Alavés 4.10
- Draw 3.40
The average moneyline across 30+ books puts Sevilla at 49%, draw 28%, Alavés 23%. Pinnacle goes 1.95/3.50/4.26, the sharpest line on the board, and it prices Sevilla slightly shorter than the recreational books at 1.85. We read this market as honest but flat. Sevilla’s defensive chaos justifies the three-way uncertainty, yet Alavés’ winless month and their single-goal-per-game ceiling make the away price unattractive. The draw at 3.40 is the trap here; Alavés’ draw tendency is real, but it has come against Malaga, Celta and Athletic, sides that do not attack like Sevilla do at home.
Possible Starting Lineups
Sevilla possible starting eleven
- GK: Odysseas Vlachodimos
- DF: José Ángel Carmona, Andrés Castrín, Arouna Sangante, Kike Salas
- MF: Felix Correia, Youssouf Fofana, Lucien Agoumé, Gabriel Suazo
- FW: Robbie Ure, Isaac Romero
Garcia Plaza has leaned on his 4-4-2 all season, and this eleven reflects minutes, not guesswork: Vlachodimos, Castrín, Salas, Fofana and Agoumé have all logged 350+ minutes across the last five matches. The front two of Ure and Romero gives Sevilla a direct outlet, while Correia’s dribbling from the right is the primary creative channel. Watch Sangante, the one centre-back who has avoided the errors that cost Getafe’s goals.
Alavés possible starting eleven
- GK: Antonio Sivera
- DF: Nahuel Tenaglia, Nicolas Valentini, Ville Koski, Jonny Otto
- MF: Antonio Blanco, Ander Guevara
- AM: Pablo Ibanez Lumbreras, Carles Aleñá, Abderrahmane Rebbach
- FW: Lucas Boyé
Sánchez Flores sticks with the 4-2-3-1 that absorbed 38 shots from Barcelona’s mutants last week. Sivera keeps goal with 9 saves in his last four, Tenaglia and Koski anchor the flanks with over 280 minutes each, and the double pivot of Blanco and Guevara exists purely to protect the back four. Lumbreras is the quiet workhorse with 10 interceptions, while Boyé operates alone up top and wins fouls by design.
🏅Tips.GG premium subscription brings you even closer to WIN!🏅
- Gain access to the most profitable bets by using our analysis of over 60,000 monthly predictions from 1000+ sources.
- Premium users enjoy predictions from tipsters with the highest win rate while also gaining access to favorable odds, outcome calculation, and quick filter to favorable odds.
- Unlock the “Golden Bet” – our unique formula for the best high-odd betting opportunities! Get detailed reports on our system’s performance, including Winrate, ROI, and Yield.
Sevilla. Source: Official Facebook
TipsGG Match Prediction
We predict Sevilla to win 2-1 with both teams scoring. The underlying numbers align too neatly to ignore: Sevilla generate 17.6 shots per game at home and Alavés concede 2.2 goals per game away from the best attacks they face, while Alavés have scored in four straight matches despite losing three of them. Sevilla’s defence has shipped 10 in five, so backing a clean sheet after the Getafe failure would be betting against our own eyes. The combination of a Sevilla win with BTTS captures both trends at a price better than the bare 1.92, and over 2.5 goals has landed in three of Sevilla’s last five and four of Alavés’. Alavés’ head-to-head record keeps this competitive deep into the second half, perhaps even level at the hour mark, before Sevilla’s superior squad depth and Correia’s form settle it late. Stick to the hot tip and let the corners market ride under 9.5 as a secondary play.
