Liam Duckstein
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Algeria welcome Niger for an October friendly that looks, on paper at least, fairly one-sided. The bookmakers have priced Algeria at roughly 78% to win, and recent results back that number up. Niger have managed just one win in six matches this year, a stat that stands in stark contrast to Algeria’s steadier output under Brahim Hemdani.
The interesting wrinkle here is the head-to-head history. These sides met in African Nations Championship qualifying in August 2025 and played out a goalless draw, a result that flew against the betting markets back then too. Niger have shown before they can frustrate Algeria for ninety minutes, even if their overall attacking numbers this season suggest that will be hard to repeat.
Keep an eye on Ibrahim Maza, who already has a goal and an assist across his last two appearances for Algeria and tends to find pockets of space between the lines. On the Niger side, Daniel Sosah has been their most direct outlet, scoring in recent matches and leading the side in shots taken.
Hot stat: Niger have scored only 2 goals across their last five matches combined, while Algeria have netted 5 in the same span from nearly double the shot volume (31 to 18). That gap in output tells most of the story here.
| 🏆 Tournament: | International Friendly 2026 |
| 🗓️ Date: | 06.10.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 19:00 CEST |
Algeria vs Niger prediction
We predict Algeria to win comfortably, but the straight moneyline at around 1.19 offers little value for the risk. Our team prefers Algeria on the Asian handicap, laying -1.5 goals. Algeria have scored at least twice in four of their last five outings, and Niger’s defense has leaked goals in three of their last five games as well.
Algeria’s possession-based game, built around short passing (88% pass accuracy over the last five matches) and quick combinations through Maza and Amoura, should create enough chances to break the handicap line. Niger sit deeper and pick their moments, which usually means fewer fouls committed in open play but more conceded corners and shots against sides with real quality up top.
Algeria have also committed fewer fouls recently (25 across five matches compared to Niger’s 30), a sign of a team controlling the ball rather than chasing it. That control, to be honest, is exactly the kind of edge that tends to produce comfortable wins against lower-ranked opposition in low-pressure friendlies like this one.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Ibrahim Maza to score or assist |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Under 8.5 |
Team Analysis
Algeria’s recent form has been a mixed bag of wins and draws rather than a clean run of victories. Their last match ended 2-2 against Burundi, a result that saw them concede twice despite leading spells. Before that they beat Zambia 3-1, lost 0-2 to Switzerland, drew 3-3 with Austria, and edged Jordan 2-1. The pattern across these five games shows a team that scores freely but leaves gaps at the back, conceding in four of its last five outings.
In our preview of Burundi vs Algeria we called for Algeria to win by two goals or more with the total going well over 2.5, and the 2-2 scoreline went against that primary call even though the goal total did clear the line. That draw is a reminder that Algeria’s defense needs watching even against weaker sides.
Niger’s recent form reads worse. Their last match was a 0-2 loss to Gabon, continuing a run where they have scored in only two of their last five matches. Before that they beat Lesotho 2-1, lost 0-1 to Mauritania, drew 1-1 with Benin, and lost 0-1 to Togo. Only one win in five, with three defeats, paints a picture of a side struggling for consistency on both ends of the pitch.
In our preview of Gabon vs Niger we backed Niger to avoid defeat on a low-scoring night, and the 0-2 loss went against that call. Niger have now lost their last meaningful away fixture and head into Bergen with their confidence clearly dented.
🚨Check out our dedicated Algeria vs Niger stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Algeria the favourite
- Moneyline Algeria 1.19 | Niger 17.00
- Draw 6.30
The gap between these odds reflects the gulf in quality and current form. Algeria’s price barely moves across bookmakers, sitting between 1.18 and 1.21, which tells us the market sees this as close to a formality. Niger’s price stretching as high as 17.00 with some books lines up with their one win in six matches this year. Backing Algeria outright offers thin returns, which is exactly why our team leans toward the handicap market for better value.
Possible Starting Lineups
Algeria possible starting eleven
- GK: Melvin Mastil
- DF: Jaouen Hadjam, Ramy Bensebaini, Samir Chergui, Achraf Abada, Ahmed Touba
- MF: Ibrahim Maza, Fares Chaibi, Adem Zorgane, Himad Abdelli
- FW: Mohamed Amoura
Hemdani’s preferred 5-4-1 shape leans on Hadjam and Bensebaini’s minutes on the flanks, with Maza pulling strings through the middle. Amoura, despite limited minutes, has contributed an assist and remains the player most likely to unlock a packed Niger defense through pace rather than brute force.
Niger possible starting eleven
- GK: Younoussa Abiboulaye
- DF: Oumar Sako, Mohamed Abdouramane, Aboubacar Camara, Rahim Alhassane
- MF: Youssouf Oumarou, Ali Mohamed
- FW: Daniel Sosah, Kairou Amoustapha, Amadou Wonkoye, Victorien Adebayor
Neghiz’s 4-2-3-1 asks Oumarou and Ali Mohamed to shield a defense that has played almost every minute together over the last five games. Sosah leads the front line on output, but he will need support from Wonkoye and Adebayor to trouble an Algerian backline that rarely gives up clean chances in bulk.
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Niger. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
TipsGG Match Prediction
We predict Algeria to win this friendly, likely by a two-goal margin or more. Their attacking numbers over the last five matches (5 goals, 31 shots) dwarf Niger’s output (2 goals, 18 shots), and Niger’s year-long winrate of just 17% supports the idea that this will be a one-way game for long spells.
Perhaps the only caution worth flagging is Algeria’s habit of conceding late in games they are winning comfortably, as seen against Burundi and Austria. That is why we favor Algeria -1.5 on the handicap over a cleaner correct-score punt, and why BTTS No carries more weight than backing a shutout outright.
