Sofia Quijada
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Burundi welcome Algeria in matchday two of Group I qualifying for the 2027 Africa Cup of Nations. Both sides opened their campaign with contrasting results, Algeria hammering out a routine win over Zambia while Burundi fell short against Togo without scoring. The gap in quality between these two federations has rarely been closer than the standings suggest, since Algeria sit level on points with group leaders Togo, while Burundi occupy bottom spot after round one.
Watch Ibrahim Maza for Algeria, who produced a goal and an assist in the win over Zambia and looks the sharpest creative outlet in Brahim Hemdani’s squad. For Burundi, Bonfils-Caleb Bimenyimana carries most of the attacking burden up front, logging the most shots and minutes among the home forwards in the last outing.
Hot stat: Burundi have failed to score a single goal across their last five matches combined, a run that includes a 0-5 defeat to Morocco and back-to-back losses to open this qualifying group.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Africa Cup of Nations 2027 Qualifier, Group I |
| 🗓️ Date: | 29.09.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 15:00 CEST |
Burundi vs Algeria prediction
Algeria go into this fixture as heavy favorites, and the bookmakers’ consensus of 72% win probability against Burundi’s 9% reflects a real gap in quality. We predict an Algeria win, likely comfortable, given Burundi’s inability to score in five consecutive matches against opposition of any real standing. Perhaps the more interesting question is not who wins but by how much, since Algeria have shown they can be generous defensively too, conceding three against Austria earlier this year.
Algeria control possession heavily, their pass accuracy over the last five fixtures dwarfs Burundi’s output, and they commit far fewer fouls per match, just 13 against Burundi’s 20 across the same sample. Burundi pick up more cards too, two yellows in that stretch compared to Algeria’s zero, a discipline gap that could matter if referees start waving cards early in a lopsided contest. Corner counts have been level in recent matches for both sides, six apiece, so we do not expect a heavily corner-skewed game despite the gulf in territorial control.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Algeria -1.5 Asian Handicap |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 8.5 |
Team Analysis
Burundi’s defeat to Togo continued a rough qualifying start, with Patrick Sangwa’s men managing zero shots on target in a game where they conceded the only goal late. Their longer form line shows ten losses in fifteen matches, and the two wins they did register this year came against Chad, a side well below their own level. In our preview of Togo vs Burundi we called a Togo win by two goals or more with both teams to score unlikely, and while the no-BTTS side landed with a clean 1-0 scoreline, the wider winning margin did not materialize.
Algeria’s 3-1 win over Zambia showcased exactly the attacking depth that makes them favorites here, with Ibrahim Maza and Mohamed Amoura combining for a goal each while the defense held firm bar one lapse. Their year-long form of nine wins from fifteen matches, including results against Argentina and Switzerland, shows a squad capable of matching stronger continental sides. In our preview of Algeria vs Zambia we called a win by two goals or more with the game going over 2.5 total goals, and the eventual 3-1 result delivered both parts of that call.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
Burundi and Algeria have no recent competitive meetings on record between these two federations, so there is no head-to-head sample to draw stats from ahead of this qualifier.
🚨Check out our dedicated Burundi vs Algeria stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Algeria the favourite
- Moneyline Burundi 9.80 | Algeria 1.26
- Draw 4.90
The market prices Algeria as an overwhelming favorite, with odds around 1.26 across most books reflecting the bookmaker consensus of 72% win probability. Burundi’s price near 9.80 is consistent with a team that has scored zero goals in five matches, and the draw at roughly 4.90 offers little value given how one-sided this fixture looks on paper. Our punters see no reason to fade Algeria here, the pricing lines up closely with the underlying form gap between these two squads.
Possible Starting Lineups
Burundi possible starting eleven
- GK: Jonathan Nahimana
- DF: Omar Moussa, Christophe Nduwarugira, Youssouf Ndayishimiye, Derrick Mukombozi
- MF: Cedric Amissi
- FW: Bonfils-Caleb Bimenyimana, Bienvenue Kanakimana, Mohamed Amissi
Burundi’s back four from the Togo defeat should stay intact under Patrick Sangwa, since Nduwarugira and Ndayishimiye played every minute and carried the bulk of the defensive workload. Bimenyimana remains the focal attacking point in what looks like a 4-3-3, though the side lacks proven depth in central midfield based on recent minutes distribution, a weakness Algeria’s midfield trio could exploit.
Algeria possible starting eleven
- GK: Melvin Mastil
- DF: Ramy Bensebaini, Jaouen Hadjam, Samir Chergui, Ahmed Touba
- MF: Adem Zorgane, Fares Chaibi, Ibrahim Maza
- FW: Mohamed Amoura, Mohamed Belloumi, Amin Chiakha
Brahim Hemdani’s likely 4-2-3-1 pairs Zorgane and Chaibi in a screening role behind Maza, who was the standout performer against Zambia. Amoura and Belloumi both logged over 70 minutes last time out and should lead the front line, giving Algeria enough attacking rotation to test a Burundi defense that has already conceded eight goals across its last five games.
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Burundi. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
The Verdict
Algeria should have too much for Burundi on both ends of the pitch. Burundi have not found the net in five straight matches, and Algeria’s attacking trio of Maza, Amoura and Belloumi carries enough quality to break down a defense that already conceded eight goals in its last five outings. We predict an Algeria win by at least two goals, with the total going over 2.5 and Burundi struggling to register a single shot on target for large stretches. To be honest, this looks like one of the cleaner favorites picks on the qualifying calendar this round.
