Sofia Quijada
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Albania welcome San Marino to Tirana sitting second in League C Group 1, four points above their visitors who have yet to register a single point, goal, or even a shot that threatened serious danger this campaign. San Marino arrive having shipped fourteen goals without reply across three Nations League fixtures, a run that includes a 7-0 thrashing from Finland and a 4-0 defeat to Belarus just days ago. The reverse fixture between these two sides finished 3-0 to the hosts, and little has shifted since that night to suggest a different script this time around.
Rey Manaj carries most of Albania’s attacking weight, with three goals in his last four appearances and a habit of punishing exactly this kind of mismatch. Kristjan Asllani pulls the strings from midfield, picking passes behind San Marino’s backline with the composure you would expect from a player used to bigger stages at club level. On the other side, Nicola Nanni remains San Marino’s most involved forward by minutes played, yet he has fired seven shots in his last five matches without finding the net once, a fair summary of his team’s season.
Hot stat: San Marino have scored zero goals across their last five matches combined, managing only 23 total shots in that span against Albania’s 62, while conceding at a rate approaching three goals per game.
| 🏆 Tournament: | UEFA Nations League 2026/27, League C Group 1 |
| 🏟 Venue: | Arena Kombëtare, Tirana |
| 🗓️ Date: | 06.10.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 20:45 CEST |
Albania vs San Marino prediction
We predict a comfortable Albania win here, and we see real value in backing a wide margin rather than just the plain moneyline. The hosts have scored nine goals in their last five outings, San Marino have scored none, and the gap in quality shown on the pitch in September’s reverse fixture was not close. Albania’s 4-4-2 gives them two out-and-out forwards plus width from midfield, which should stretch a San Marino back four that has already conceded fourteen times this campaign.
Albania average noticeably higher pass accuracy and ball control through midfield, which lets them dictate tempo and draw fouls in good areas, 47 fouls committed by Albania against 46 by San Marino over the last five matches shows discipline is similar, but the yellow card count (8 apiece) suggests referees are keeping both sides on a short leash. San Marino’s defending has leaked goals from set pieces and transitions alike, and with Albania winning 23 corners in their last five games to San Marino’s 14, expect plenty of service into the box on Tuesday night.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Albania to win by 3 or more goals |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 3.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 8.5 |
Team Analysis
Albania’s last match ended in a 2-1 defeat away to Finland, a game where they created enough but got undone by two moments of quality from the hosts. Before that, Rolando Maran’s side beat San Marino 3-0 and Belarus 2-0, showing they handle lesser opposition without trouble, their issue tends to surface only against the group’s strongest side. In our preview of Finland vs Albania we called a narrow 2-1 Finland win with goals at both ends, and the eventual 2-1 scoreline backed that read up fully.
San Marino’s last match was a 4-0 defeat away to Belarus, extending a run with zero wins in their last five and ten goals conceded in their previous two matches alone. Roberto Cevoli’s side have lost nine of their last ten games on record, with their only positive result in that stretch coming from a draw well before this campaign’s opening fixtures. In our preview of Belarus vs San Marino we predicted a routine Belarus win to nil by two goals or more, and the 4-0 final score landed that call even if the margin ran wider than expected.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Albania | San Marino |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 3 | 0 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Albania vs San Marino stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Albania the favourite
- Moneyline Albania 1.02 | San Marino 84.00
- Draw 16.00
Bookmakers price Albania at a shade over even money’s cousin for a win, essentially a formality on paper, while San Marino’s 84.00 reflects a side that has not won a competitive match in years. Markets this skewed usually point punters toward handicap or goal-total markets instead of the straight moneyline, and we agree with that approach here given how little value sits in backing Albania outright at such short odds.
Possible Starting Lineups
Albania possible starting eleven
- GK: Etrit Berisha
- DF: Elseid Hysaj, Berat Djimsiti, Ardian Ismajli, Mario Mitaj
- MF: Kristjan Asllani, Ernest Muci, Ylber Ramadani, Juljan Shehu
- FW: Rey Manaj, Myrto Uzuni
Maran sticks with the 4-4-2 that has delivered nine goals in five matches, leaning on Manaj and Uzuni up front with Asllani dictating play from deep. Berisha gets the nod in goal on recent minutes played, and the back four of Hysaj, Djimsiti, Ismajli and Mitaj has started together often enough to suggest real continuity.
San Marino possible starting eleven
- GK: Mirco De Angelis
- DF: Michele Cevoli, Giacomo Benvenuti, Marco Pasolini, Dante Rossi
- MF: Lorenzo Capicchioni, Marcello Mularoni
- FW: Samuel Pancotti, Lorenzo Lazzari, Gabriel Capicchioni, Nicola Nanni
Cevoli’s 4-2-3-1 asks Nanni to lead the line alone, backed by Pancotti, Lazzari and Gabriel Capicchioni in support, though none of the four have scored in their last five matches combined. The double pivot of Lorenzo Capicchioni and Mularoni will need a big defensive shift to keep this one respectable.
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Albania. Source: Official Website
TipsGG Match Prediction
We predict Albania to win comfortably, perhaps by three goals or more, given San Marino’s inability to score across their last five fixtures and a defense that has shipped fourteen goals in three Nations League games this season. To be honest, the main question is whether Albania can be sharp enough in front of goal after missing chances against Finland, but even a below-par display from Maran’s side should be enough against this opponent. Our staff lean toward Albania to win and over 3.5 total goals as the smartest combination, with BTTS No standing out given San Marino’s complete lack of attacking output on the road.
Read Also: Albania vs San Marino: Predicted Line-ups, Confirmed Absentees & Team News
