Sofia Quijada
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Alavés welcome Malaga to Mendizorroza with both sides stuck in miserable runs of form, though the gap in quality is stark on paper. Alavés sit mid-table on 11 points while Malaga prop up the entire division, still searching for a maiden league win after nine rounds. The interesting wrinkle here is that despite the table gap, neither club has actually won a match in October, and both arrive having lost two of their last three games.
Watch Lucas Boyé for the home side, he is Alavés’ most direct outlet with five shots and the only goal from a forward in the recent sample. For Malaga, Adrian Nino carries the goal threat, scoring twice in his last five appearances despite limited minutes, a rare bright spot in an otherwise toothless attack.
Hot stat: Malaga remain the only team in La Liga yet to win a single match this season, taking just 4 points from 9 games with 5 losses and 4 draws, a run that stretches their winless streak to the start of the campaign itself.
| 🏆 Tournament: | La Liga 2026/2027, Regular Season |
| 🏟 Venue: | Estadio de Mendizorroza, Victoria-Gasteiz |
| 🗓️ Date: | 23.10.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 21:00 CEST |
Alavés vs Malaga prediction
We predict Alavés to win this one, likely 1-0 or 2-0, given the gulf in attacking output between the two sides. Alavés have conceded just once across their last two outings against Bilbao and have managed to keep Malaga, a side averaging under a goal per game, from finding rhythm on the road. Malaga’s away form has produced zero wins all season, and their defense has leaked 18 goals in 9 rounds, the worst record in the league.
Style-wise, Alavés sit at 81% pass accuracy over their last five matches against Malaga’s 87%, so the visitors actually move the ball cleaner, but they convert far less of that possession into shots that matter. Alavés have drawn only one yellow card in their last five fixtures compared to Malaga’s five, suggesting a more disciplined Alavés unit that will not gift Malaga easy free kicks or set pieces near their own box. Fouls tell a similar story: Alavés commit more fouls overall (28 to Malaga’s 14) but stay out of the referee’s notebook, a pattern that should let them control tempo without risking a red card or suspension-triggering card in a match where control is at a premium.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Alavés win & Both Teams To Score: No |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Under 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 8.5 |
Team Analysis
Alavés have gone four matches without a win, drawing one and losing three, with their lone goal in that span coming against Celta Vigo in a 1-2 defeat. Before that they fell 1-2 to Atlético Madrid, held Athletic Bilbao scoreless, lost 0-1 to Valencia and slipped 1-2 to Racing Santander. The pattern is clear: Alavés create little going forward and lean on a tight defensive shape, which explains the 3-4-3 setup Quique Sánchez Flores has favored lately. In our preview of Celta Vigo vs Alavés we called a home win for Celta with both sides scoring, and the eventual 2-1 result for Celta backed that read, even if the exact scoreline landed slightly differently.
Malaga’s collapse continues unabated. Their last match ended 2-5 against Real Sociedad, a scoreline that exposed a defense shipping goals at will even against mid-table opposition. Before that they drew 1-1 with Espanyol, lost 0-1 to Getafe, fell 1-3 to Villarreal and drew 1-1 with Celta Vigo. Juan Funes’ 4-2-3-1 has shown occasional spark going forward, scoring in four of their last five, but the defensive frailty behind it undoes any progress. In our preview of Malaga vs Real Sociedad we backed a Real Sociedad away win with both teams scoring, and the 2-5 final score confirmed both calls, albeit with a far heavier margin than we expected.
🚨Check out our dedicated Alavés vs Malaga stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Alavés the favourite
- Moneyline Alavés 1.80 | Malaga 4.33
- Draw 3.40
Bookmakers price Alavés as clear favourites at close to 56% implied probability, which lines up with the form gap between a mid-table side and the league’s only winless team. Malaga’s price above 4.30 reflects their away struggles this season, we see little value backing the upset here given how one-sided the attacking numbers look. The draw at 3.40 is the more interesting outside price, Malaga’s habit of drawing games (4 in 9) keeps that market alive even without a convincing away showing.
Possible Starting Lineups
Alavés possible starting eleven
- GK: Antonio Sivera
- DF: Nahuel Tenaglia, Nicolas Valentini, Jonny Otto
- MF: Pablo Ibanez Lumbreras, Antonio Blanco, Denis Suárez, Carles Aleñá
- FW: Abderrahmane Rebbach, Lucas Boyé, Toni Martínez
Quique Sánchez Flores sticks with the 3-4-3 that has defined his last five selections. Tenaglia and Valentini anchor the back three with the most consistent minutes, while Blanco and Ibanez Lumbreras control the midfield tempo. Boyé leads the front line as the most productive forward in recent weeks, with Rebbach and Martínez offering width and pace off him.
Malaga possible starting eleven
- GK: Alfonso Herrero
- DF: Rafael Garrido Hierro, Fernando Calero, Adam Aznou, Carlos Puga
- MF: Ángel Recio Gutiérrez, Dani Lorenzo, Pablo Martínez Andrés, Carlos Dotor, Rafael Rodríguez Ruiz
- FW: Adrian Nino
Juan Funes keeps the 4-2-3-1 shape, with Garrido Hierro and Calero the most-used centre-backs behind a double pivot of Recio Gutiérrez and Lorenzo. Pablo Martínez Andrés, who has a goal and an assist in the last five, pushes forward in support of lone striker Adrian Nino, who remains Malaga’s sharpest finisher despite limited minutes this season.
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Malaga. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
TipsGG Match Prediction
We predict Alavés to see off Malaga at home, perhaps by a narrow 1-0 or 2-0 margin, given how badly the visitors have defended all season and how little threat they generate away from home. Malaga’s 18 goals conceded in 9 games and zero wins paint a side out of ideas, while Alavés, despite their own four-game winless run, remain stingier at the back and better organized in their own 3-4-3. To be honest, this looks like one of the more straightforward home calls on the card this round, and our punters team is backing Alavés to win combined with under 2.5 total goals as the value play.
