AEK Athens vs Olympiacos Prediction: 01.02.2026 Super League 1

On the first of February, Greek football serves up a classic as league leaders AEK Athens host their fierce rivals Olympiacos in the Super League 1 regular season at the pulsating OPAP Arena. Beyond the table positions with just two points separating these sides this fixture marks a fascinating tactical contest between Marko Nikolic and José Luis Mendilibar, both renowned for their adaptable approaches. Can AEK Athens cement their summit, or will Olympiacos, in sizzling form, leapfrog them at the most crucial juncture of the campaign?
Two names capture most of the spotlight for this colossal clash: for AEK, all eyes will be drawn to prolific forward Luka Jovic, whose recent streak of five goals in four matches has powered the yellow-blacks’ offensive machinery. On the Olympiacos side, Mehdi Taremi’s blend of intelligent movement and cool finishing, underpinned by two goals and two assists in his last five, poses a direct threat to the home side’s back line. Both players’ ability to unbalance opposition defences will be instrumental tonight.
If you’re hunting for a scorching stat, here’s one: Olympiacos boast a commendable 80% win rate from their last five, and their aggressive pressing is exemplified by 51 interceptions, far surpassing AEK’s tally of 23. Will this tenacity prove the difference-maker?

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AEK Athens vs Olympiacos prediction

With both teams operating at a high level AEK Athens leading the league with 44 points from 18 games, Olympiacos just behind with 42 from 17 a razor-thin margin splits these Athens giants. The best value prediction here is “Both Teams To Score: Yes”. Both sides feature in-form strikers; AEK’s Luka Jovic leads their line with five goals in his last four, while Olympiacos reply through Mehdi Taremi’s sharp movement, plus a wider spread of attacking threats including Gelson Martins and Costinha.
Digging deeper, Olympiacos have the division’s most robust away form (four wins from the last five across all competitions), led by a disciplined 4-2-3-1 formation and an interception-hungry midfield. AEK, meanwhile, have ceded only 12 goals in 18 matches at home all campaign impressive, but their recent 1-0 loss to OFI Crete suggests cracks can appear under pressure. Disciplinary trends are notable: both sides accumulate fouls (AEK 65, Olympiacos 54 in their last five) and yellow cards (10 and 9 respectively), which signals an aggressive, high-tempo affair not short on passion. Olympiacos edge the corners and total shots categories too, but with each team vying for the summit, expect end-to-end exchanges.

Team Analysis

AEK Athens come into this clash on mixed recent form. Their last league match was a gritty 1-0 victory over Asteras Tripolis, showing defensive discipline but lacking attacking spark save for Jovic’s clinical presence. Before that, a confidence-boosting 4-0 thrashing of Panathinaikos illustrated what they’re capable of when their midfield dominates possession (over 85 pass percentage in that game). However, a surprising 0-1 defeat at home to OFI Crete exposed some susceptibility when pressed high, and a 1-1 draw with Aris Thessaloniki reinforced the sense that while AEK are solid, they can be stymied by organised opposition. Notably, their 65 fouls and 22 corners in the last five highlight both aggression and set-piece threat.

Olympiacos ride into Athens with four wins from their last five, including notable scalps: a 2-0 dispatching of European giants Bayer Leverkusen and a dogged 2-1 against Ajax. Domestically, their methodical 1-0 win over Volos showcased their defensive strength, spearheaded by Retsos and Pirola, while their 2-0 victory over Atromitos was achieved with clinical efficiency. Their only blip came in a 0-2 home defeat against PAOK. Olympiacos’ 4-2-3-1 system allows for rapid transitions and overloads on the wings, and their high interception count underpins their pressing philosophy. Their 32 corners and 61 total shots across the last five fixtures are league-leading figures, signposting their intent and ability to stretch opposing backlines.

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🚨Read our full AEK Athens vs Olympiacos stats for more analysis.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Olympiacos the favourite

• Moneyline AEK Athens 2.70 | Olympiacos 2.60
• Draw 3.05
• Over/Under Over 2.5 1.98 | Under 2.5 1.75
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 1.82 | No 1.90

Looking at these odds, most bookmakers rate this as an exceptionally close contest but slightly tip Olympiacos due to their recent European form and their superior head-to-head record in this fixture (three wins in their last four against AEK). The pricing for both teams to score aligns with each side’s attacking trends, and the odds for Over 2.5 goals are remarkably competitive speaking to an expectation of attacking football. If you’re seeking value, the Draw No Bet market or a flutter on goals could pay dividends; recent matches almost always see at least two scored.

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Possible Starting Lineups

AEK Athens possible starting eleven

Nikolic is expected to stay faithful to his 4-2-3-1 setup, anchored by Strakosha in goal and a settled backline led by Vida and Moukoudi. Ljubicic and Marin form a combative midfield duo to break up Olympiacos’s transitions, while Pineda and Mantalos provide creativity on the flanks and through the middle. Jovic, in irrepressible form, leads the attack a player capable of seizing the moment. Watch for Kutesa’s work rate and Rota’s overlapping runs to trouble the visitors; expect a compact but aggressive stance, built for quick counters and set-pieces.

Olympiacos possible starting eleven

Mendilibar’s Olympiacos are typically structured in an attacking 4-2-3-1, with Tzolakis guarding the sticks and Retsos and Biancone marshaling the central defensive duties. On the flanks, Costinha and Ortega press high, supporting both defensive and offensive play. The midfield quartet of Hezze, Chiquinho, García, and Mouzakitis brings a blend of tenacity and ball retention, while Gelson Martins is the wild card with his direct running a perfect foil for the ever-dangerous Taremi. Olympiacos’ shape is fluid, but expect relentless press and a focus on turning midfield battles into attacking overloads.

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The Verdict

If history and current momentum are anything to go by, there are fireworks in store at the OPAP Arena! Both AEK Athens and Olympiacos are more than capable of winning big matches, but Olympiacos’s blend of defensive grit and ruthless breakaway pace lets them shade this contest, especially given their away resilience and recent dominance in this rivalry. Still, with AEK possessing the firepower of Jovic and the tactical discipline Nikolic instills, the edge is fine. My pick? A draw, with a scoreline possibly settling at 2-2 both sides scoring and attacking with verve, but also matched up well in direct duels. This shapes up as a classic one that could decide the Super League title race.

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