Liam Duckstein
Hajduk Split travel to Zilina for the second leg of their UEFA Europa League 2026/27 First Qualifying Round tie holding a 2-0 advantage from the first meeting. That result makes this a near-formality for the Croatian side, but Zilina still have a home crowd behind them and a mathematical path back into the tie. The interesting angle here is that Zilina have not won a single game in their last five matches, while Hajduk have won four from four over the same period. Roko Brajkovic is the man to watch for Hajduk, having scored both goals and registered two assists across the last two matches, making him the standout attacking threat. For Zilina, Miroslav Káčer in central midfield carries the most responsibility in terms of controlling tempo and will need a big performance if the hosts are to cause any upset.
A hot stat worth flagging: Hajduk Split registered 22 total shots in their last match alone, compared to Zilina’s 8 across the same period. That gap in attacking output tells a clear story about where the balance of power sits in this tie.
| 🏆 Tournament: | UEFA Europa League 2026/27 – First Qualifying Round |
| 🏟 Venue: | Stadion MSK Zilina, Zilina |
| 🗓️ Date: | 16.07.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 20:30 CEST |
Zilina vs Hajduk Split Prediction
Hajduk Split arrive in Slovakia with a two-goal cushion and the form to back it up. They have won every competitive match in the last 30 days, and their defensive structure has been solid enough to keep Zilina scoreless in the first leg. We predict a Hajduk Split win or draw on the night, but the most valuable market here is Hajduk Split to qualify, which is already as close to a certainty as this round offers.
Looking at a specific outcome for the match itself, the away win is the sharpest pick. Zilina have drawn three and lost two of their last five games, scoring just once across that entire run. They carry almost no attacking threat, and Hajduk’s defensive shape under Gonzalo García has been disciplined. A low-scoring Hajduk win feels right.
In terms of style, Zilina commit to a 4-2-3-1 shape and tend to sit in defensively, which explains their low shot count. Their foul count and free kick concession numbers suggest a team under pressure rather than one pressing high. Hajduk’s 3-4-2-1 gives them width through the wing-backs and numerical overloads in the final third, which is exactly the kind of structure that punishes a deep-sitting side. With Hajduk generating 12 corner kicks to Zilina’s 6 in their recent samples, set-piece danger is a real factor here too.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Hajduk Split to win to nil |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Under 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 8.5 |
Team Analysis
Zilina’s recent run makes for uncomfortable reading. They have not won in five competitive matches, picking up three draws and two defeats. They were held 0-0 by Odra Opava and drew 2-2 with Pardubice before the 0-2 loss to Hajduk in the first leg. Their most recent outing before this tie was a 0-2 home defeat to Dynamo Kyiv, which signals a pattern of defensive fragility against higher-ranked opposition. Coach Pavol Stano has yet to find a formula that generates consistent attacking output, and the numbers reflect that: zero goals in their last two matches, zero shots on target from the first leg data. Zilina’s path to overturning this tie runs entirely through a first-half goal, and right now there is very little evidence they can produce one.
Hajduk Split have been in excellent shape. Four wins from four in the last 30 days, including victories over Celje, LNZ, and Shkendija (4-0) before beating Zilina 2-0 in the first leg. Their only soft result in recent weeks was a 1-1 draw against Lokomotiva Zagreb, but even that came against a domestic rival. Gonzalo García has built a team that is effective without the ball, and their attacking transitions are sharp. Brajkovic has been the key figure, contributing directly to goals in back-to-back matches. With the tie effectively settled, Hajduk may rotate some personnel, but their squad depth has been good enough to handle that in recent outings.
Most Recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Zilina | Hajduk Split |
|---|---|---|
| Total shots | 8 | 22 |
| Free kicks | 28 | 16 |
| Corner kicks | 6 | 12 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Zilina vs Hajduk Split stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Hajduk Split the favourite
- Moneyline Zilina 3.19 | Hajduk Split 2.16
- Draw 3.44
The market has Hajduk as clear favourites at around 2.15-2.16 with the top books, and that reflects the aggregate position accurately. Zilina at 3.19 looks generous on paper, but given their form and the structural disadvantage of chasing two goals, it is not a price worth chasing. The draw at 3.44 is interesting only if you think Hajduk will play conservatively and manage the tie, but their recent attacking numbers suggest they will not sit back. The Hajduk win at 2.16 is the honest price in this tie.
Possible Starting Lineups
Zilina possible starting eleven
- DF: Krisztian Bari, Aleksandre Narimanidze, Timotej Hranica, Filip Kaša
- MF: Tobias Paliscak, Marko Roginic, Miroslav Káčer, Michal Faško
- FW: Frantisek Kosa, Patrik Ilko
Zilina have been lining up in a 4-2-3-1 shape across their last five matches. The defensive four of Bari, Narimanidze, Hranica, and Kaša have all logged significant minutes. Roginic and Paliscak form the double pivot, with Káčer operating in a more advanced midfield role where he carries the most creative responsibility. Kosa and Ilko are the likely attacking options, though neither has contributed a goal or assist in recent matches. Samuel Datko is worth watching off the bench given his card risk after picking up two yellows in limited minutes.
Hajduk Split possible starting eleven
- GK: Toni Silic
- DF: Dario Melnjak, Dario Marešić, Mathieu Acapandie
- MF: Rokas Pukstas, Adrion Pajaziti
- FW: Roko Brajkovic, Michele Šego, Alberto del Moral, Marko Livaja
Toni Silic has started the last two matches and is the clear first-choice goalkeeper. The back three of Melnjak, Marešić, and Acapandie has been consistent, with Acapandie also contributing two assists in that run. Pukstas and Pajaziti anchor the midfield in a 3-4-2-1 system. Brajkovic is the focal point up front and the most dangerous player on the pitch given his two goals and two assists across recent outings. Šego has logged heavy minutes but carries a yellow card risk. García may rotate given the comfortable aggregate lead, but the core of this side has enough quality to see the tie out.
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Hajduk Split. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
The Verdict
The data points in one direction. Hajduk Split have been the better team across every relevant metric: more shots, more corners, more goals, and a 100% win rate over the last 30 days. Zilina have not won in five matches and have failed to score in three of those five. The 2-0 aggregate deficit removes any margin for error on the home side.
We predict a Hajduk Split win on the night, most likely by a single goal. The “win to nil” market at a boosted price is the pick we feel most confident about. Zilina’s attacking output simply does not justify a BTTS bet, and their free kick count of 28 in the head-to-head suggests they spent most of that first leg in defensive recovery rather than building attacks. Hajduk should progress comfortably and close the tie out without drama.
