Alex MacQuoid
Zalgiris and Hajduk Split meet at the LFF Stadium in Vilnius for the first leg of their UEFA Conference League Third Qualifying Round tie. The Lithuanian champions enter this match on the back of an extraordinary recent run, winning six of their last seven games, while Hajduk Split arrive from Croatia in patchy form, having lost three of their last five. What makes this tie genuinely interesting is how differently both clubs reached this stage: Zalgiris dismantled Dinamo Tbilisi 7-2 in their most recent home outing, while Hajduk were thumped 4-0 by Pafos just days ago in their own European fixture. That kind of disparity in momentum is hard to ignore.
Stanislav Bilenkyi has been the standout figure for Zalgiris in recent weeks, scoring three goals across his last three appearances and adding an assist, making him the most dangerous attacking presence on the home side. For Hajduk, Adrion Pajaziti has been doing the defensive and creative dirty work in midfield, racking up three yellow cards and an assist across five games, suggesting he is deeply involved in everything Hajduk try to build.
Hot stat: Zalgiris scored nine goals across their last five matches, including a stunning 7-2 victory over Dinamo Tbilisi, making them one of the most prolific sides in this qualifying round by a significant margin.
| 🏆 Tournament: | UEFA Conference League 2026/27, Third Qualifying Round |
| 🏟 Venue: | LFF Stadium, Vilnius |
| 🗓️ Date: | 06.08.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 19:00 CEST |
Zalgiris vs Hajduk Split prediction
Hajduk Split are the bookmakers’ favourites at roughly 49% win probability, and the odds reflect a comfortable Croatian advantage on paper. But the numbers from recent form tell a more complicated story. Zalgiris are operating at 86% win rate over the last 30 days. Hajduk are at 40%. Playing this one at the LFF Stadium, where Zalgiris are comfortable and the crowd will push them, the home side’s momentum is a real factor that the odds perhaps undervalue.
We think the most value here sits with Zalgiris or at least a draw at home in the first leg. The 7-2 scoreline against Tbilisi was not a fluke; Bilenkyi, Bryan Silva Teixeira, and Nemanja Mihajlović have all found the net recently, and Hajduk’s defensive record against European opposition has been shaky. That 4-0 loss to Pafos is still fresh. Their defense is not airtight, and Zalgiris have the firepower to exploit it.
Zalgiris have been operating in a 4-2-3-1 shape, pressing high and transitioning quickly. Hajduk also prefer 4-2-3-1, which means the midfield battle will be tight and physical. Hajduk have committed 20 fouls across their last five games and collected 11 yellow cards, suggesting they get pulled into aggressive duels under pressure. Zalgiris, by contrast, have been more disciplined with seven yellows. Hajduk’s 26 corner kicks in five games (against Zalgiris’s 10) tells you they generate a lot of wide pressure and set-piece situations. That volume of corners could be a factor in the total corners market.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Zalgiris Double Chance (Win or Draw) |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 8.5 |
Team Analysis
Zalgiris have been in remarkable domestic and European shape. Their last five competitive results include a 3-1 win over Transinvest, a 2-1 win over OFK Petrovac, a 3-2 league win over Hegelmann Litauen, and that emphatic 7-2 dismantling of Dinamo Tbilisi in their most recent outing. The one blemish is a 0-3 loss to Dinamo Tbilisi in the away leg of their earlier European round, which shows they can be exposed on the road. At home, though, they look genuinely dangerous. Bilenkyi’s form is the headline, but Paulius Golubickas contributing two assists from midfield adds another dimension, and coach Andrius Skerla has a settled squad that knows exactly what it is doing in the 4-2-3-1 shape.
Hajduk Split have been inconsistent in a way that is hard to paper over. They beat Pafos 2-0 at home in the first leg of their previous European round, then lost the return 0-4. They beat Zilina twice but dropped points in both domestic league matches surrounding that campaign. Their most recent result was a 1-2 loss to Varazdin in the Croatian league, which is the kind of result that signals something is not right heading into a European away trip. Coach Gonzalo García has players of quality, Marko Livaja is still one of the more recognizable names in Croatian football, but his output has been minimal recently with zero goals in five games. Rokas Pukstas has been the more productive central midfielder, scoring once and assisting once, and Alec Van Hoorenbeeck has even contributed a goal from right back. The squad is experienced, but the form is genuinely concerning.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
These two sides have not met before in competitive football, so there is no historical head-to-head data to draw on. The only fixture on record is the one being previewed here.
| Statistic | Zalgiris | Hajduk Split |
|---|---|---|
| Total shots | 48 | 44 |
| Corner kicks | 10 | 26 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Zalgiris vs Hajduk Split stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Hajduk Split the favourite
- Moneyline Zalgiris 3.50–3.75 | Hajduk Split 1.81–1.91
- Draw 3.30–3.55
Hajduk Split are listed at roughly 1.81 to 1.91 across major bookmakers, which reflects their higher UEFA club ranking and Croatian league pedigree. Zalgiris are priced between 3.50 and 3.75, which honestly looks generous given their current form. The draw sits around 3.30 to 3.55. We think the Zalgiris double chance (covering a win or draw) offers the clearest value in this market. Backing Hajduk at 1.81 after a 4-0 European hammering and a domestic loss to Varazdin feels like paying too much for a team that is clearly not at their best. The 25% implied probability on a Zalgiris win from the bookmakers’ average also feels too low given the 86% win rate over the last 30 days.
Possible Starting Lineups
Zalgiris possible starting eleven
- GK: Vincentas Sarkauskas
- DF: Danny Lupano, Yuri Kendysh, Ivan Lytvynenko, Klaudijus Upstas
- MF: Marko Capan, Paulius Golubickas, Kajus Bicka
- FW: Bryan Silva Teixeira, Stanislav Bilenkyi, Deividas Šešplaukis
Sarkauskas has been the first-choice goalkeeper based on playing time data, logging 270 minutes across three recent appearances. The back four picks itself, with Danny Lupano and Yuri Kendysh as the more senior presences. In the 4-2-3-1, Golubickas sits in the creative midfield role where his two recent assists came from. Bilenkyi is the most obvious player to watch, three goals in three games is form that demands respect, and Hajduk’s defense will need to account for him from the first whistle. Bryan Silva Teixeira adds another goal threat from the forward line, and Šešplaukis provides the width and work rate this system requires.
Hajduk Split possible starting eleven
- GK: Toni Silic
- DF: Mathieu Acapandie, Dario Marešić, Alec Van Hoorenbeeck, Simun Hrgovic
- MF: Adrion Pajaziti, Rokas Pukstas, Dalisson De Almeida Leite, Alberto del Moral
- FW: Michele Šego, Roko Brajkovic
Toni Silic takes the goalkeeper spot with 480 minutes across five games, making him the clear first choice. The back four features Acapandie, who has two assists from left back and has been one of their more involved defenders, alongside Van Hoorenbeeck who has scored once from the right. Pajaziti’s three yellow cards in five games suggest he will be tested in Vilnius, and Pukstas is arguably their most complete central midfielder right now. Up front, Marko Livaja’s lack of output is the biggest question mark. Brajkovic has a goal and an assist in three games and may be the more reliable attacking option in this 4-2-3-1 setup. Šego also has a goal from five appearances and gives Hajduk a physical presence in the final third.
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Hajduk Split. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
The Verdict
This is a match where the numbers and the narrative pull in different directions, and that tension is what makes it worth betting carefully. Hajduk Split are the better-ranked club and have more experience at this level, but they are arriving off the back of a 1-2 domestic loss and a 0-4 European thrashing. Zalgiris, by contrast, have been scoring freely, defending reasonably at home, and operating with real confidence under Skerla. The 7-2 win over Tbilisi was not against elite opposition, but nine goals in five matches across all competitions is a legitimate signal.
We think this ends as a competitive, open first leg. Hajduk will create chances, they always generate volume with 44 shots across five games, but their finishing has been inconsistent and their defensive record is not clean. Zalgiris will press hard, Bilenkyi will be a constant threat, and the home atmosphere at the LFF Stadium will matter. Honestly, a draw or narrow Zalgiris win feels more likely than the odds suggest. Our prediction is Zalgiris Double Chance, with both teams to score and over 2.5 goals as supporting markets. The corners market (over 8.5) also looks attractive given Hajduk’s habit of generating wide play.
