Arjun Menon
Final day of the 2025/26 Premier League. West Ham clings to safety, Leeds comfortably mid-table but not entirely out of danger. The bookies call West Ham slight favourites, a strange choice considering Leeds’ better form and higher world ranking. The Hammers, haunted by a minus-22 goal difference, face a Leeds side that’s quietly become tough to beat. Taty Castellanos and Dominic Calvert-Lewin—one has barely stopped running, the other won’t stop scoring—could tip the scales. It’s a do-or-die for the hosts.
Leeds have scored seven goals in their last five matches, more than double West Ham’s tally over the same stretch. That’s the hot stat. The attacking threat is real, the goals are coming from several boots.
| 🏆 Tournament: | English Premier League 2025/26 (Regular Season) |
| 🏟 Venue: | London Stadium, London |
| 🗓️ Date: | 24.05.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 17:00 CEST |
West Ham vs Leeds prediction
Best value? Leeds double chance (win or draw). Why? West Ham’s form is freefall—three losses in five, a single win, and their defense leaks goals (65 conceded in 37 matches). Leeds, on the other hand, aren’t lighting up the league, but three wins and two draws from their last six shows a team that’s hard to break down, especially away.
Neither side can keep their discipline; both average over two yellow cards per five matches. Leeds commit slightly more fouls and pick up more corners, a sign of their aggressive approach and willingness to press. West Ham have been clumsy, the midfield slow to recover, and their passing accuracy is lower (77.5% vs 75%). Expect interruptions, maybe a nervy, scrappy game. Leeds’ higher shots per match and more attacking intent could see them dominate phases, but a desperate West Ham may overcommit. Both teams likely to find the net, but don’t expect clean sheets.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Leeds to score first |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 9.5 |
Team Analysis
West Ham’s recent run has been ugly. Last out, they lost 1-3 to Newcastle—never really in it, looked shaky at the back, and struggled to create up top. Before that, the Hammers fell 0-1 to Arsenal and were trounced 0-3 by Brentford. Only bright spark: a 2-1 win over Everton, but that looks like an outlier. The squad seems flat, creativity missing, and a lack of cutting edge has hurt. Jarrod Bowen is still the man with ideas, but he’s isolated.
Leeds come off a gritty 1-0 win over Brighton, a team on paper better than the Hammers. Calvert-Lewin bagged the winner, and Leeds looked sharp all over the pitch. Their earlier matches include a 1-1 draw with Tottenham, a 3-1 hammering of Burnley, and a 2-2 with Bournemouth—lots of energy, plenty of pressing, and goals from various players. Leeds look more cohesive, their midfield works harder, and they’re not afraid to push for a late result.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | West Ham | Leeds |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1 (last EPL meeting) | 2 (last EPL meeting) |
| Total shots | 47 (last 5 matches) | 56 (last 5 matches) |
| Free kicks | 1 (last 5 matches) | 3 (last 5 matches) |
| Corner kicks | 14 (last 5 matches) | 19 (last 5 matches) |
| Total fouls | 46 (last 5 matches) | 51 (last 5 matches) |
| Pass accuracy (%) | 77.5 | 75.7 |
| Interceptions | 32 | 36 |
| Offsides | 4 | 7 |
🚨Check out our dedicated West Ham vs Leeds stats page for more info.
West Ham. Source: Official Website
Pre-game odds and win probability: West Ham the favourite
- Moneyline West Ham 1.88 | Leeds 3.80
- Draw 4.10
- Over/Under Over 2.5 1.95 | Under 2.5 1.85
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 1.65 | No 2.20
Bookies lean West Ham’s way, probably due to the home factor and desperation. We think those odds overrate the Hammers—Leeds in better shape, less to lose, more to offer going forward. Draw price is chunky and tempting, considering the defensive records. Over 2.5 goals at close to evens appeals, especially with both teams to score heavily odds-on.
Possible Starting Lineups
West Ham possible starting eleven
- GK: Mads Hermansen
- DF: Aaron Wan-Bissaka, Axel Disasi, Konstantinos Mavropanos, El Hadji Malick Diouf
- MF: Tomáš Souček, Mateus Fernandes, Pablo Felipe Pereira de Jesus, Jarrod Bowen
- FW: Taty Castellanos, Callum Wilson
Hermansen takes the gloves—solid, consistent, no fuss. Disasi and Mavropanos form the spine at the back, Wan-Bissaka offers width. Souček brings the engine, Fernandes has passing, and Bowen is the only real spark out wide. Castellanos and Wilson together up top, both desperate for goals. West Ham likely stick to 4-2-3-1 but might push for a two-striker set-up if chasing.
Leeds possible starting eleven
- GK: Karl Darlow
- DF: James Justin, Joe Rodon, Pascal Struijk, Jaka Bijol
- MF: Ethan Ampadu, Anton Stach, Ao Tanaka, Brenden Aaronson
- FW: Dominic Calvert-Lewin, Wilfried Gnonto
Darlow starts in goal, steady hands lately. Rodon and Struijk as centre-backs, Justin and Bijol complete the line. Ampadu and Stach anchor midfield, both tough, both smart with the ball. Tanaka and Aaronson support, while up front Calvert-Lewin leads the line with Gnonto buzzing around. Leeds’ 4-2-3-1 morphs into 4-4-2 when chasing. Calvert-Lewin is the man West Ham fans fear—three goals in his last five, always in the right place.
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Leeds. Source: Official Website
TipsGG Match Prediction
We think Leeds spoil West Ham’s party. Maybe not a full win, but a point at least—hard to see the Hammers suddenly fixing their leaky defense. Leeds’ attack is alive, they play with less fear. West Ham can score, but their midfield is slow and the defense nervous. Our pick: Leeds or draw, both teams to score, and a frantic finish as the Hammers chase survival.
