Weekend Football Predictions Digest (17-18.05)

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In the FA Cup final, Crystal Palace take on Manchester City – a shot at the first major trophy in the London club’s history.

Just reaching the final is already a success for Palace, who don’t often give fans much to cheer for. Having secured safety in the Premier League and with no European hopes, they’ve had every reason to focus fully on the cup run.

City, meanwhile, are finishing strong and still have a solid chance of making the Champions League. The cup final is also their chance to salvage an otherwise underwhelming season with some silverware. Guardiola’s side haven’t lost since early March, and they handled Nottingham Forest in the semi-final – the same team that last beat them.
Yes, they slipped up against Southampton recently (0–0), but I’m still backing City to lift the trophy.

My Take: Man City to win – (1.83 via N1Bet)

Freiburg are just one point ahead of Dortmund, who are playing a relegated bottom-side at the same time. That means the hosts have no option but to go all-out for a win – anything else could cost them a Champions League spot. Luckily, they’re in excellent form: four wins and a draw against Leverkusen in their last five matches.

As for Eintracht, they’ve also been consistent – unbeaten in the league since that unsuccessful trip to Bremen. Yes, they were knocked out of the Europa League during that span, but they’ve recorded two big Bundesliga wins and three draws since then.

But here’s the catch: Eintracht haven’t won an away match since mid-March, when they beat Bochum. Can they snap that streak now? The game will tell.
Given the stakes, neither side can afford to play too openly – but the last two meetings between these teams produced 11 goals combined. So I’m backing both teams to score and over 2.5 goals.

My Take: BTTS & Over 2.5 goals – (1.72 via N1Bet)

Mainz go into the final round with everything to play for. A win secures them a spot in next season’s Europa Conference League, although a draw might also be enough – provided Leipzig match or do worse in their final fixture.

As for Bayer, it’s clear that both the management and most of the players already have one eye on next season. Motivation is questionable.

Mainz haven’t lost at home since last November, and with the stakes this high, I’m going for a bold pick considering it’s the season finale:

My Bet: Mainz to win by 1 goal or Draw – (2.05 via N1Bet)

Strasbourg still have a slim chance of qualifying for the Champions League, though it would require a perfect storm of results. More realistically, even a draw might be enough to qualify for the Europa League – if PSG win the French Cup.

Le Havre’s goals are more down to earth: staying in 16th place to earn a relegation playoff spot against a Ligue 2 side. To do that, they need to at least match Saint-Étienne’s result.

Expect goals and a determined home performance.

My Bet: Strasbourg or Draw + BTTS – Yes – (1.91 via N1Bet)

It’s do-or-die for Saint-Étienne. Only a win can give them hope of overtaking Le Havre and finishing 16th – which would at least offer a chance to stay in Ligue 1 via a relegation playoff.

The task is tough but realistic, especially as Toulouse have little motivation and Saint-Étienne will be backed by a passionate home crowd.

My Bet: Saint-Étienne corner handicap -1 – (2.50 via N1Bet)

Roma’s long unbeaten run finally came to an end last round. Back on home turf, they must bounce back with a win to stay alive in the Champions League race.

Milan, theoretically, could still reach the UCL too, but their chances are remote. On top of that, news broke that the current head coach will step down at the end of the season unlikely to provide a morale boost.

My Bet: Roma to win by 1 goal or Draw – (1.90 via N1Bet)

For the second time in a week, AC Milan travel to Rome. Last time, they lost the Coppa Italia final here to Bologna.

Roma’s defeat to Atalanta last round (1–2) ended a long unbeaten run that started in mid-December and severely dented their Champions League hopes. They’re sixth, but still just one point off fourth – it’s tight, and Juventus and Lazio are within reach.

Milan, meanwhile, stabilized under Sérgio Conceição this spring. They knocked Inter out of the Coppa and won three straight in Serie A. But their cup final dreams were dashed by Bologna in a narrow 0–1 loss.

Milan can still qualify for Europe, but only a win will do here. However, they spent a lot of energy in that final, and it’s unclear if they have enough left in the tank to truly challenge Roma.

One thing’s certain: both sides need to attack and can’t afford to concede. That’s why I’m going for corners.

My Take: Over 9.5 corners – (1.89 via N1Bet)

Arsenal haven’t won at the Emirates since April 1st – against Fulham, no joke. Mikel Arteta’s side are hitting a rough patch at the worst possible time: five straight games without a win and crucial points dropped.

That draw with Liverpool should’ve solidified second place, but it’s now wide open. Newcastle and Manchester United are ready to pounce and push the Gunners out of the top two.
The Magpies are flying – seven wins in their last ten, including a comfortable 2–0 over Chelsea. And thanks to City’s stumble against Southampton, they’ve moved into third. A win here would send them into second and almost lock in a Champions League berth.

Earlier this season, Newcastle beat Arsenal 1–0 at home, then twice knocked them out of the EFL Cup with identical 2–0 wins. They’ve had Arsenal’s number – and I see that continuing.

My Take: Newcastle double chance (X2) – (1.81 via N1Bet)

Inter got a massive gift from Napoli and cut the gap to the top down to just one point. After their epic Champions League clash with Barcelona, Inzaghi rotated the squad but still beat Torino away. Now, with two games to go, they must win out and hope the leaders drop points – something entirely possible as Napoli face Parma, who are fighting for Serie A survival.

Lazio are in the hunt for a top-four finish themselves, but sit just behind due to inferior goal difference. Their issue? They’ve drawn three of their last five – against Parma, Juve, and Roma – dropping key points in the run-in.

With the UCL final still far off, I fully expect Inter to field their best XI and take care of business at home. Don’t forget: their last six wins over Lazio have all been by two goals. That 1–1 draw last year? Inter were already champions and lacked motivation. This time, the stakes are real.

My Take: Inter to win & Over 1.5 goals – (1.91 via N1Bet)

A win here would guarantee Celta Vigo a place in next season’s Europa League group stage. A perfect opportunity to celebrate qualification in front of their fans.

Rayo are one of the few teams who could spoil the party, but it’s hard to see them pulling it off at Balaídos, where Celta are traditionally strong.

My Bet: Celta to win by 1 goal or Draw – (1.93 via N1Bet)

After seemingly securing survival, Parma appear to have relaxed too early, suffering back-to-back narrow defeats. Now, relegation is breathing down their necks again.

Napoli’s slip-up against Genoa last round may prove costly in their title fight with Inter, so nothing but a win will do here.

But against gritty opposition away from home, it may not be pretty.

My Bet: Napoli to win by 1 goal or Draw – (1.91 via N1Bet)