Arjun Menon
Promotion battles never lack tension. Waalwijk and Roda both enter this Eerste Divisie clash with promotion dreams on the line, but their recent forms point in divergent directions. Waalwijk, under Sander Duits, have been banging in goals lately, while Roda’s attack has looked inconsistent. The odds marginally favor the hosts, yet recent head-to-head results are tight. One intriguing detail: both sides drew 1-1 just days ago, in the first round of the playoffs—so the mental edge? Maybe nonexistent.
Watch out for Denilho Cleonise, Waalwijk’s lively forward, who’s netted four in his last six. For Roda, Anthony van den Hurk is always a threat up front—two goals in five, and a knack for popping up in key moments.
Hot stat: Waalwijk have smashed 14 goals in their last five matches, nearly double Roda’s tally, with a 5-0 win over Emmen as the standout. That kind of attacking surge can unsettle any defense.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Eerste Divisie 2025/26 Promotion Round 1 |
| 🏟 Venue: | Mandemakers Stadion, Waalwijk |
| 🗓️ Date: | 01.05.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 20:00 CEST |
Waalwijk vs Roda prediction
TipsGG sees real value in backing Waalwijk to win this one. The difference in recent attacking output is just too glaring to ignore—14 goals from Waalwijk’s last five games, with Cleonise in hot form, and multiple players contributing. Roda have managed only seven in the same stretch, and their defense has shown cracks, particularly on the road.
Both teams rack up their share of fouls—Waalwijk with 75 and Roda with 49 over the past five matches. Waalwijk also collect more yellow cards (11 vs Roda’s 7), reflecting a combative, pressing style that disrupts rhythm but brings risk. Ball possession? Waalwijk’s passing stats (2369 passes at 1971 completed, 75% accuracy) are marginally less than Roda’s (2657 passes at 2182 completed, 82% accuracy), which hints that Roda might try to slow things down and control the ball, but Waalwijk’s direct play yields more shots and goals. This could see the game get open, and cards might flow, but the hosts’ attack should tip it.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Waalwijk to win & Over 2.5 Goals |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 8.5 |
Team Analysis
Waalwijk’s recent run has been bumpy but explosive. Their last match—a 1-1 draw against this same Roda side—showed both their strengths and soft spots. Cleonise’s movement constantly unsettled defenders, and they carved out more chances than the scoreline suggests. Earlier, they demolished Jong PSV 4-1 and Emmen 5-0, but then got hammered 1-5 by Den Haag—a reminder that defensive lapses linger. The team’s 4-2-3-1 setup is all about fast transitions and high pressing, which brings both goals and chaos.
Roda, on the other hand, have been unpredictable. The same 1-1 draw last out showed flashes of potential—Van den Hurk and Kalinauskas combined well up top, but they faded after the break. Just before, they lost 0-2 to AZ Alkmaar’s youth side, which stung. Their win over Eindhoven (3-1) showed they can still turn it on, but a 2-2 draw with Emmen and a tight 0-1 loss to Willem II show inconsistency, especially in defense. The 4-4-2 shape sometimes leaves them stretched, and they don’t always dominate midfield.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Waalwijk | Roda |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1 | 1 |
| Total shots | 81 | 64 |
| Corner kicks | 23 | 15 |
| Total fouls | 75 | 49 |
| Pass accuracy (%) | 75 | 82 |
| Interceptions | 59 | 34 |
| Offsides | 13 | 7 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Waalwijk vs Roda stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Waalwijk the favourite
- Moneyline Waalwijk 2.16 | Roda 3.00
- Draw 3.75
- Over/Under Over 2.5 1.65 | Under 2.5 2.20
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 1.60 | No 2.30
Bookies back Waalwijk for a reason. That short 2.16 price suggests confidence in their home form and attacking power. Draw at 3.75 looks long—neither side sits back, so a cagey stalemate feels unlikely. Roda at 3.00? Not much trust in their away record or goal output. Over 2.5 goals sits at a low 1.65, almost daring punters to expect goals. BTTS (yes) also short, and rightly so with both attacks in motion. We think the best value is still on Waalwijk, especially with their relentless forward movement and Cleonise’s spark.
Possible Starting Lineups
Waalwijk possible starting eleven
- GK: Mark Spenkelink
- DF: Juan Familia-Castillo, Roshon van Eijma, Liam Van Gelderen, Nazjir Held
- MF: Godfried Roemeratoe, Ryan Fage, Harrie Kuster, Melle Witteveen
- FW: Denilho Cleonise, Tim van der Leij
Spenkelink holds the gloves with Van Gelderen and van Eijma anchoring the defense, Familia-Castillo and Held bombing up the flanks. Fage and Kuster offer legs in midfield, Witteveen sits deeper, and Cleonise’s movement (from wide or central) is key. Van der Leij’s recent goal surge makes him undroppable. Expect the 4-2-3-1 again—wide, high, direct.
Roda possible starting eleven
- GK: Justin Treichel
- DF: Lucas Beerten, Joey Muller, Jay Kruiver, Marco Tol
- MF: Michael Breij, Joshua Nisbet, Jerome Deom, Dario Van Den Buijs
- FW: Anthony van den Hurk, T. Kalinauskas
Treichel starts between the sticks. Defensively, Muller and Tol marshal the center, Kruiver and Beerten wide. Nisbet links play in midfield, Breij offers creativity, Deom and Van Den Buijs supply grit. Up front, Van den Hurk pairs with Kalinauskas—a blend of power and movement. Formation? 4-4-2, but expect tweaks—maybe a narrow diamond if the midfield gets overwhelmed. Van den Hurk needs service; if he gets it, Roda can score.
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Roda. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
TipsGG Match Prediction
Waalwijk’s attacking form, home advantage, and statistical edge all point to a home win. Roda aren’t toothless, but the lack of goals recently stands out. Maybe they pinch one—Van den Hurk has a habit of ghosting in—but Waalwijk’s press, shooting volume, and discipline at home make them clear favorites for us. Expect an open contest, cards, and goals at both ends. TipsGG punters’ consensus: Waalwijk 2-1, maybe 3-1, but always over 2.5 goals.
