VPS vs AC Oulu Prediction: 23.06.2026 Veikkausliiga

AC Oulu arrive at Elisa Stadion in Vaasa sitting second in the Veikkausliiga table, just one point behind Inter Turku, and they’ve been one of the more convincing sides in Finnish football this season. VPS, coached by Jussi Nuorela, are fifth with 17 points from 11 games, a respectable position but one that masks a certain fragility — they’ve already lost twice and their goal difference sits at a modest +2. The away side under Mikko Isokangas have played one more league game and collected eight wins, which is genuinely impressive form. The two clubs met earlier this season in the Veikkausliiga, with AC Oulu winning 1-0, and that result shapes the narrative heading into this one.

Keep an eye on Luka Smyth for VPS. The forward has scored twice in his last three appearances and leads his team’s attack with 12 shots and nine free kick involvements in that same span. For AC Oulu, Julius Körkkö has been quietly excellent — one goal, two assists, and seven shots across three recent matches from a midfield role, making him the creative engine for the visitors.

Hot stat: AC Oulu have won three of their last four matches while conceding just once across those games, keeping a clean sheet in two of them. They are remarkably hard to score against right now.

VPS vs AC Oulu Prediction

AC Oulu are the form side here. A 75% win rate over the last 30 days, a 64% win rate across the full season, and a head-to-head record that reads heavily in their favour — four wins from the last five encounters between these clubs, including a 4-1 thrashing in the Liigacup back in early 2026. VPS at home does provide some buffer, but their offense has been muted, scoring just three goals in five recent matches and going scoreless in two of their last four league outings. We think AC Oulu to win is the cleaner bet here, and the odds around 2.85-2.91 represent decent value given how dominant they’ve been.

VPS tend to be a physical side, picking up 47 fouls and five yellow cards across their last five matches. That aggressive pressing style creates free kick situations but also leaves gaps. AC Oulu, by contrast, have committed just 25 fouls in the same period with only three bookings, meaning they play a more disciplined, structured game. AC Oulu’s pass accuracy sits fractionally above VPS (96.5% vs 96.2%), and they’ve generated 19 corners to VPS’s 13, suggesting they spend more time in attacking positions and sustain pressure in a more controlled way. That style difference could matter a lot in a tight match — VPS may concede set pieces in dangerous areas.

Team Analysis

VPS have had a mixed run of form. They beat SJK 2-1 in their most recent outing, which was a positive result against a side that has been inconsistent this season. Before that, they drew with KuPs twice — 1-1 and 0-0 — and lost to TPS Turku 1-0. The only convincing performance in recent weeks was a 4-0 demolition of Haka. So the picture is uneven: capable of big wins against weaker opposition, but prone to going quiet against organized sides. With 11 goals conceded in 11 league games, they’re not exactly leaking, but they’re not prolific either. The 2-1 win over SJK involved Luka Smyth’s goals and Simon Lindholm’s contribution, and those two will need to be at their best to trouble an AC Oulu backline that has been miserly lately.

AC Oulu’s last five matches tell a story of controlled, efficient football. They beat Mariehamn 2-1 most recently, drew 0-0 with league leaders Inter Turku — a result that shows genuine defensive solidity against top-tier competition — and before that won 2-1 against Jaro and 1-0 against both SJK and TPS Turku. That’s four wins and one draw, zero losses. Rasmus Karjalainen, who has a goal and an assist in recent games, and Juha Pirinen, who scored from a defensive position, give AC Oulu scoring threats from multiple areas. Goalkeeper Miguel Santos has made 11 saves across three matches, suggesting the defense in front of him hasn’t always been airtight, but the team has managed to grind out results regardless. That mentality counts.

Most Recent Head-to-Head Matches

The head-to-head record between these sides is not flattering for VPS. AC Oulu have won four of the last six meetings, with VPS claiming just one victory — a 2-1 win in the Liigacup 2025 group stage. The most recent meeting this season ended 1-0 to AC Oulu. Even in the high-scoring 4-3 VPS win from Veikkausliiga 2025, AC Oulu matched them shot for shot and it was a chaotic game rather than a comfortable home win. Honest assessment: this head-to-head series belongs to AC Oulu.

🚨Check out our dedicated VPS vs AC Oulu stats page for more info.

Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: AC Oulu the Favourite

• Moneyline VPS 2.41 | AC Oulu 2.91
• Draw 3.24

The bookmakers’ average gives VPS a 39% implied win probability versus 33% for AC Oulu, which feels off given the form and head-to-head context. Maybe the home advantage is being weighted heavily, but AC Oulu’s season stats and recent results suggest they are the stronger team right now. VPS at 2.25-2.41 looks like poor value. AC Oulu at 2.80-2.91 is where the value sits. The draw at 3.24 is interesting as a side option given VPS’s tendency to play tight, but we wouldn’t chase it as a primary bet.

Possible Starting Lineups

VPS Possible Starting Eleven

VPS have been consistent in their 4-3-3 shape across recent matches, and Jussi Nuorela is unlikely to deviate from it here. Mamadou Wurie Jalloh has made eight saves in three matches and will be tested. The defensive unit of Niemi, Okereke, Mané, and Kouassivi-Benissan has been reasonably stable. In midfield, Paulo Lima provides the volume — 143 passes in three games — while Simon Lindholm has chipped in with a goal. Luka Smyth is the one to watch up front, with two goals and the most shots of any VPS player in recent matches. Yassin Daoussi’s role is more complex — he’s been booked twice and committed 10 fouls, but he drifts into attacking areas and creates problems.

AC Oulu Possible Starting Eleven

AC Oulu line up in a 4-4-2 that is organized and hard to break down. Miguel Santos has been reliable between the sticks. Juha Pirinen, nominally a defender, has scored in recent games and is a threat at set pieces — something to monitor given VPS’s tendency to give away free kicks. Julius Körkkö is the creative hub from midfield, and Rasmus Karjalainen leads the forward line with genuine energy and a recent goal and assist to his name. Alex Lietsa and Pirinen have covered 270 minutes each in the last three matches, showing they are the backbone of this backline. Mikko Isokangas is unlikely to change a system that is clearly working.

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The Verdict

AC Oulu are the better team on paper and in practice right now. Their 64% season win rate dwarfs VPS’s 40%, they’ve lost zero games in the last 30 days, and they’ve beaten VPS in four of their last six meetings — including the reverse fixture just months ago. VPS at home adds a layer of uncertainty, and their win over SJK shows they can perform when motivated. But AC Oulu’s defensive discipline, with just 25 fouls and three yellow cards in five games, and their corner supremacy (19 to VPS’s 13) suggest they control matches rather than react to them.

We think this ends as a narrow AC Oulu win, likely 1-0 or 2-1. The under 2.5 goals market makes sense given how defensively solid AC Oulu have been and how VPS have struggled to score freely. The “AC Oulu win and under 2.5 goals” combination at combined odds around the 5.00-6.00 range depending on your bookmaker is the play we’d make here. Smyth could nick one for VPS, but honestly, the visitors look composed enough to see this out.

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