Rafael Nogueira
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Vitoria host Gremio at Estadio Manoel Barradas in a bottom-half Brasileirao clash where both sides are fighting to avoid the relegation zone. Vitoria sit 14th with 29 points, five places and one point above Gremio, but the hosts have won just two of their last seven matches. Gremio arrive in better form, winning four of their last seven, and have beaten Vitoria in three of the last five head-to-head meetings, including a 2-0 win earlier this season.
Two players to track closely: Gremio midfielder Filip Krovinović leads all outfield players with 10 shots and 240 passes in the last five games, operating as the engine of Luís Castro’s system. For Vitoria, forward Marinho has attempted 10 shots in the same span, the most of any Vitoria attacker, and creates constant pressure from wide positions despite a low conversion rate so far.
Hot stat: Gremio have scored six goals across their last five matches while Vitoria managed only two. That three-to-one ratio in output reflects a significant gap in attacking efficiency heading into this fixture.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Campeonato Brasileiro Série A 2026 – Regular Season |
| 🏟 Venue: | Estadio Manoel Barradas, Salvador |
| 🗓️ Date: | 08.09.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 01:00 CEST |
Vitoria vs Gremio Prediction
Gremio are the better pick here. They arrive with a 57% win rate over the last 30 days compared to Vitoria’s 29%, and the head-to-head record strongly favours the visitors, with Gremio winning three of the last five meetings and scoring two or more in four of those five. Vitoria have lost four of their last five at home against quality opposition, conceding multiple goals in most of those defeats.
Vitoria’s 4-2-3-1 setup relies heavily on defensive compactness, but their 12 losses in 25 league games and a goal difference of -13 point to a side that leaks goals regularly. Gremio’s 4-1-4-1 gives them a more balanced structure, and their 41 interceptions in the last five games (compared to Vitoria’s 31) show a team that wins the ball back efficiently. Vitoria commit more fouls (72 vs 63) and have accumulated more yellow cards (11 vs 15 overall, but Vitoria’s came in fewer productive sequences), which could open space for Gremio on set pieces. Gremio’s pass accuracy is also marginally higher, suggesting they will control tempo in stretches.
We predict Gremio to win this match, with goals likely to come from their more clinical attacking unit. The value sits firmly on the away side.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Gremio to score in both halves |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Vitoria have struggled badly in recent weeks, going winless in five straight matches. Their last outing was a 0-2 home loss to Vasco, continuing a run where they have failed to score in four of their last five games. The one win in that stretch, a 1-0 over Botafogo, looks like an outlier against a Botafogo side in poor form themselves. Jair Ventura’s side have conceded multiple goals in three of those five matches, and the attacking stats back up the concern: just two goals from 74 total shots over that period is an extremely low conversion rate.
Gremio have bounced back well after a mid-season dip. Their most recent result was a 3-1 win over Internacional, following a 3-1 win over Chapecoense before that. The draw with Internacional in between those two wins is the only blemish in a three-game stretch that shows a team finding form at the right time. Luís Castro’s side scored six goals in their last five matches, with Carlos Vinícius (2 goals) and Gustavo Martins (2 goals) both contributing from different positions, giving Gremio multiple goal threats.
🚨Check out our dedicated Vitoria vs Gremio stats page for more info.
Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: Vitoria the Favourite
- Moneyline Vitoria 2.08 | Gremio 3.45
- Draw 3.30
- Over/Under Over 2.5 N/A | Under 2.5 N/A
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes N/A | No N/A
The bookmakers’ average gives Vitoria a 45% win probability as the home side, but the odds from most books sit around 2.05-2.16, which implies closer to 46-49%. Given Gremio’s superior recent form, their head-to-head dominance, and Vitoria’s inability to score, those Gremio odds in the 3.45-3.60 range represent genuine value. Pinnacle’s 2.16 on Vitoria and 3.55 on Gremio are among the sharpest lines available and confirm the market sees this as closer than the home-field advantage suggests.
Possible Starting Lineups
Vitoria Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Lucas Arcanjo
- DF: Cacá, Luan Cândido, Ramon, Emanuel Brítez
- MF: Walace, Matheuzinho, Zé Vitor, Emmanuel Martínez
- FW: Marinho, Erick
Jair Ventura is likely to line up in his preferred 4-2-3-1, with Lucas Arcanjo as the undisputed first-choice goalkeeper after 450 minutes played and 22 saves. Cacá and Luan Cândido form the central defensive partnership, both having appeared in all five recent matches. Walace and Matheuzinho anchor the midfield double pivot, with Matheuzinho the team’s top scorer in recent games with one goal. Marinho is the player to watch in attack, having registered the most shots (10) of any Vitoria forward across the last five matches.
Gremio Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Weverton Pereira da Silva
- DF: Diego Caito Barcellos, Marlon, Wagner Leonardo, Walter Kannemann
- MF: Filip Krovinović, Erick Noriega, Mathias Villasanti, Francis Amuzu
- FW: Carlos Vinícius, Cristian Pavón
Luís Castro’s 4-1-4-1 sees Weverton as first choice in goal after 450 minutes and 20 saves. The back four picks itself based on appearances, with Kannemann as the most experienced centre-back despite his four yellow cards. Filip Krovinović is the standout in midfield, with 10 shots, 240 passes, and one goal across the last five games. Carlos Vinícius leads the attack with two goals and will be supported by Cristian Pavón, who has one goal and one assist in the same period. Francis Amuzu provides width and two assists from the right flank.
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Vitoria. Source: Official X/Twitter. Edited photo
TipsGG Match Prediction
Gremio win is the call. The visitors have won four of their last seven, scored nine goals in five head-to-head meetings against Vitoria, and carry a far more productive attack into this game. Vitoria have scored twice in their last five matches combined, and their defensive record of 37 goals conceded in 25 league games makes them vulnerable at home against a Gremio side that just put three past Internacional. Vitoria’s home advantage is real on paper, but the statistical case for Gremio is clear. We predict a Gremio win, with both teams scoring, and the match finishing with over 2.5 goals. The best value bet is Gremio on the moneyline at 3.45-3.55.
