Rafael Nogueira
Vitoria host Athletico PR at Estadio Manoel Barradas in the second leg of their Copa do Brasil 2026 Round of 16 tie, trailing 0-2 from the first leg. Jair Ventura’s side must overturn that deficit to stay in the competition, making this a must-win for the home team. Athletico PR, under Odair Hellmann, arrive in Salvador carrying a clean sheet and the comfort of a two-goal cushion. The tie is effectively Vitoria’s to lose, and that desperation will shape the tempo of the match.
Leonardo Caetano Silva leads Athletico PR’s attack with three goals and two assists across the last five matches, making him the most dangerous player on the pitch. For Vitoria, Carlos Renê de Sousa Ferreira has been the most active forward in terms of shot volume, registering 14 total shots in five games, even if goals have been elusive.
Hot stat: Vitoria have scored just one goal across their last five matches, a deeply concerning return for a side that needs at least two goals in this second leg.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Copa do Brasil 2026, Round of 16 |
| 🏟 Venue: | Estadio Manoel Barradas, Salvador |
| 🗓️ Date: | 07.08.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 01:00 CEST |
Vitoria vs Athletico PR Prediction
Vitoria need two goals without reply to force extra time, or three to win outright in normal time. Given they have scored just once in their last five matches and conceded eight, that turnaround looks beyond them. Athletico PR are the more composed side, and a draw in this leg would be enough to send them through. Odair Hellmann’s team have every incentive to sit back and absorb pressure, hitting on the counter through Kevin Viveros and Leonardo Caetano Silva.
Vitoria commit heavily in attack, averaging 18 free kicks per game across recent matches, and their 4 red cards in five games suggests a side prone to indiscipline under pressure. Athletico PR average a higher 15.2 free kicks per game, but their ball retention is better, completing passes at a higher volume. Vitoria’s pass accuracy sits at around 80%, comparable to Athletico PR’s 84%, but the visitor’s defensive shape and interception numbers suggest they will frustrate the home side’s attempts to build. Athletico PR’s 76 total fouls in five matches shows they are not shy about slowing the game down when needed, which will blunt Vitoria’s urgency.
- We predict Athletico PR to qualify, with the match result likely a draw or a narrow Athletico PR win
- Vitoria’s attacking output does not support a high-scoring comeback
- Athletico PR to keep a clean sheet or concede at most once
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Athletico PR to qualify (advance to next round) |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Under 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 8.5 |
Team Analysis
Vitoria have been in poor form over the past month, winning just once in five matches with three losses and a draw. Their season-long record of 20 wins from 45 games reflects a team that struggles for consistency. In the last five matches, they scored just one goal total while conceding heavily, including a 0-4 loss to Palmeiras and a 0-2 defeat to Remo. Their only bright result was a 1-0 win over Vasco. The first leg of this tie ended 0-2, continuing a pattern of defensive fragility and attacking inefficiency. Coach Jair Ventura has yet to find a solution to a squad that lacks a reliable goalscorer, with Renato Kayzer as the only player to register a goal in recent games.
Athletico PR have been in solid form, winning three of their last six matches with just two losses. Their season record of 18 wins from 36 games gives a 50% win rate, the best of any side in this tie. In the last five matches they scored eight goals, with standout wins including a 2-0 over Internacional and a 2-1 over Sao Paulo. Their only blemish was a 1-2 loss to Bragantino. The first leg win over Vitoria (2-0) was comfortable, and their most recent Copa do Brasil result, a 0-0 draw with Corinthians Paulista, shows they can manage games when qualification is already in hand.
Most Recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Vitoria | Athletico PR |
|---|---|---|
| Total Shots | 55 | 61 |
| Free Kicks | 90 | 50 |
| Corner Kicks | 21 | 18 |
| Total Fouls | 64 | 76 |
| Pass Accuracy (%) | 80 | 84 |
| Interceptions | 42 | 34 |
| Offsides | 2 | 6 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Vitoria vs Athletico PR stats page for more info.
Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: Athletico PR the Favourite
- Moneyline Vitoria 2.55 | Athletico PR 2.90
- Draw 3.22
The bookmakers’ average gives Vitoria a 38% chance of winning the match, with Athletico PR at 33% and the draw at 29%. To be honest, those moneyline odds are surprisingly tight given the two-goal first-leg deficit Vitoria carry. The real market to watch here is qualification, not the match result. Vitoria winning this game 1-0 or 2-0 still sends Athletico PR through on aggregate. The Pinnacle odds of 2.56 for Vitoria and 2.92 for Athletico PR reflect genuine uncertainty about the 90-minute result, but the aggregate picture strongly favors the visitors.
Possible Starting Lineups
Vitoria Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Lucas Arcanjo
- DF: Luan Cândido, Cacá, Emanuel Brítez, Jamerson
- MF: Baralhas, Caíque Gonçalves, Zé Vitor, Emmanuel Martínez
- FW: Carlos Renê de Sousa Ferreira, Erick
Vitoria have used a 3-4-2-1 system in their last five matches, but the need to chase the tie may push Ventura toward a more attack-minded setup. Lucas Arcanjo is the first-choice goalkeeper with 24 saves in six games. Baralhas anchors the midfield with 10 interceptions in five appearances, providing the defensive base from which Vitoria need to launch their attacks. Carlos Renê leads the side in shot volume and will be expected to generate the most danger. Emmanuel Martínez carries the most red card risk with 2 in five games, and Vitoria can ill afford to go down to ten men given the task ahead.
Athletico PR Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Aderbar Melo dos Santos Neto
- DF: Juan Aguirre, Arthur Dias, Gilberto, Carlos Teran
- MF: Jadson Alves dos Santos, Luiz Gustavo, João Victor Machado Cruz, Eduardo Kogitzki Anastacio
- FW: Kevin Viveros, Leonardo Caetano Silva
Athletico PR also operate in a 3-4-2-1 shape. Aderbar Melo dos Santos Neto starts in goal with nine saves in five matches. Arthur Dias has accumulated 3 yellow cards and 10 fouls, so he is a booking risk in a heated second leg. Kevin Viveros leads the side with 12 shots and three assists, making him the primary counter-attacking threat. Leonardo Caetano Silva, with three goals and two assists, is the player Vitoria must contain. João Victor Machado Cruz adds two goals from midfield, giving Hellmann multiple scoring options even without committing heavily forward.
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Vitoria. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
The Verdict
The numbers point clearly toward Athletico PR progressing from this tie. Vitoria have scored once in five matches and conceded 12, while Athletico PR have scored eight with a composed defensive structure behind them. Vitoria’s higher free kick count (90 vs 50 over five games) reflects a side that struggles to break teams down through open play, relying instead on set pieces, yet they have converted none of those into goals. We predict Athletico PR to either win or draw this second leg, advancing comfortably on aggregate. The most likely scoreline is a 1-1 draw or a 0-1 Athletico PR win. Under 2.5 goals is the strongest bet on the card, supported by Vitoria’s attacking record and Athletico PR’s willingness to absorb and manage the game.
