Vitoria Guimaraes vs Casa Pia Prediction: 11.05.2026 Primeira Liga

Vitoria Guimaraes and Casa Pia close their regular season campaigns at Estádio D. Afonso Henriques. The hosts sit mid-table, safe but not entirely satisfied, while Casa Pia teeters above the drop zone with a desperate need for points. The difference in momentum is striking: Guimaraes have won two of their last four, Casa Pia none of their last six. Gustavo Silva for Vitoria Guimaraes brings a direct attacking threat with two goals and an assist in his last five, while Casa Pia’s Cassiano shoulders the goal-scoring hope for the visitors, having netted their only goal in recent matches. Watch João Miguel Teixeira Mendes for Guimaraes—he offers vital midfield control and passing, while Jérémy Livolant for Casa Pia is often the creative outlet.
The hot stat: Casa Pia have accumulated 14 yellow cards and two reds in their last five matches—a clear sign of pressure and disciplinary issues.

Vitoria Guimaraes vs Casa Pia prediction

We predict a home win for Vitoria Guimaraes. The home side’s recent form, higher league position, and superior attacking options make them the logical pick. Guimaraes have scored seven in their last five at home, with a controlled, possession-based style (over 1700 passes in the last five) and only nine yellows, signaling discipline. Casa Pia, in contrast, have the league’s worst form, no wins in their last six, and major disciplinary problems—84 fouls and 14 yellows (plus two reds) in five matches suggest frustration and fatigue. Expect Guimaraes to dictate play, benefit from Casa Pia’s defensive errors, and capitalize on set pieces. The match should feature several bookings, and Casa Pia’s aggressive approach may backfire, opening spaces for Guimaraes’ forwards.

Team Analysis

Vitoria Guimaraes come off a harsh 1-5 loss to Sporting CP, but prior to that they shut out Rio Ave and Gil Vicente with clean sheet wins. Their defense can be solid, especially against bottom-half sides, and they create many chances—49 shots in the last five matches. Key players like Gustavo Silva and Fábio Samuel Amorim Silva drive their attacking transitions. Passing accuracy remains high and midfielders like Benedito Mukendi keep them ticking.

Casa Pia’s woes continue after a 0-1 home loss to Tondela. Their attack is blunt—just two goals in five matches, and discipline is a real concern. Cassiano remains their only recent goal scorer, but midfield creativity is lacking. Jérémy Livolant offers some spark, but possession is often wasted. The backline faces constant pressure, reflected in the high foul count and poor defensive stats.

Most recent Head-to-Head Matches

🚨Check out our dedicated Vitoria Guimaraes vs Casa Pia stats page for more info.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Vitoria Guimaraes the favourite

• Moneyline Vitoria Guimaraes 1.29–1.69 | Casa Pia 3.35–4.68
• Draw 3.90–4.10
• Over/Under Over 2.5 2.05 | Under 2.5 1.70
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 2.00 | No 1.70

Bookmakers put Vitoria Guimaraes as clear favorites. The home win odds reflect their superior form and overall quality, while Casa Pia’s long price matches their recent failures. Over/Under and BTTS markets expect a low-scoring, one-sided affair. These odds look justified—Guimaraes’ control and Casa Pia’s lack of punch suggest limited away threat and a disciplined home performance.

Possible Starting Lineups

Vitoria Guimaraes possible starting eleven

This XI follows recent selection trends, with Marcelo da Silva a reliable presence in goal and Rivas Viondi marshaling the backline. João Mendes and Tony Strata provide fullback thrust. In midfield, Mukendi is the metronome and Fábio Silva adds attacking drive. Up front, Gustavo Silva should start after his recent output, supported by Saviolo. The expected formation is 4-2-3-1, focusing on possession and quick transitions. Watch Gustavo Silva—he is in scoring form and pulls defenders out of position.

Casa Pia possible starting eleven

Casa Pia’s lineup reflects necessity and availability more than consistency. Sequeira remains first choice in goal, with Albino and Goulart Silva likely central at the back. Geraldes and Larrazabal offer experience. The midfield is combative but lacks creative spark; Rafael Brito and Iyad Mohamed will look to disrupt Guimaraes’ rhythm. Cassiano leads the line with Livolant as chief support. Formation should also be 4-2-3-1, but expect defensive caution. Cassiano’s physical presence up top is their best chance for a breakthrough.

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TipsGG Match Prediction

We predict a professional performance from Vitoria Guimaraes, likely a 2-0 or 2-1 win. Guimaraes’ controlled buildup, better passing, and more reliable scoring options should be decisive. Casa Pia’s ill-discipline, lack of attacking options, and poor recent record make them unlikely to grab points here. If Guimaraes score early, the match could become even more one-sided. Expect several cards and set-piece chances for the hosts. To be honest, Casa Pia’s only hope rests on defensive resilience and a moment of counter-attacking luck, but the odds and stats all favor the home side.

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