Villarreal vs Deportivo La Coruna Prediction: 5 September 2026 La Liga

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Villarreal welcome Deportivo La Coruna to the Estadio de la Cerámica in Matchday 4 of La Liga 2026/2027. The Yellow Submarine sit 15th with just two points from three games, yet they remain strong favourites at home. Deportivo, surprisingly, arrive in 8th place after going unbeaten in their opening three league fixtures, making this a more competitive encounter than the odds suggest. Georges Mikautadze leads Villarreal’s attack with two goals in four recent appearances, while Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang has been Deportivo’s standout performer, netting three goals across his last four outings. Villarreal’s 65 total shots across their last five matches dwarf Deportivo’s 35, a gap in attacking output that tells a clear story about where the danger will come from on the night.

Villarreal vs Deportivo La Coruna Prediction

Villarreal have the home advantage, a higher volume of shots, and bookmakers backing them at 64% probability. Their recent La Liga form is mixed, two draws and a loss in three games, but their overall attacking output in the last five matches is considerably sharper than Deportivo’s. Iñigo Pérez’s side averages 13 shots per game compared to Deportivo’s seven, and they control the ball more effectively with a higher pass count and accuracy across the board.

Deportivo have been compact and hard to beat, going unbeaten in their first three La Liga fixtures, but their attacking numbers are modest. They managed just 35 shots across five matches, and their goal threat depends heavily on Aubameyang. Against a Villarreal side playing at home and needing a win to climb the table, we predict the hosts take all three points.

Villarreal commit more fouls (60 vs 56 across five games) and have picked up eight yellow cards to Deportivo’s six. That physical edge can work both ways, but it also signals Villarreal’s intensity pressing and disrupting play, which tends to suit home sides. Deportivo’s 39 interceptions across five games show they defend with discipline, so this will not be a walkover, but the quality gap should tell over 90 minutes.

• Main Prediction: Villarreal to Win (1X2)
• Value Pick: Over 2.5 Goals
• Player Prop: Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang to Score Anytime

Team Analysis

Villarreal’s last five matches show a side capable of beating quality opposition but inconsistent at the back. They defeated Galatasaray 2-1 and Levante 1-0, drew twice with Atletico Madrid and Racing Santander, then lost to Alavés 0-1. The Alavés defeat is the most recent result and the most concerning, as it came against a side sitting fourth in the table with four yellow cards and three fouls committed by Álvaro Santiago Mouriño González alone in recent outings highlighting defensive vulnerability. Mikautadze’s two goals and one assist across five games make him the creative engine, and Nicolas Pépé’s 11 shots with one goal and one assist show he remains a constant threat from wide areas.

Deportivo’s recent run is genuinely impressive. They beat Valencia 3-1 in their last outing, drew with Malaga and Elche before that, lost narrowly to Real Madrid 0-1, and opened with a 1-0 win over Genoa. Their unbeaten La Liga start (W1 D2) reflects a team that is organised and difficult to break down. Aubameyang’s three goals across five matches make him the clear focal point, and Lorenzo Amatucci’s one assist alongside Mario Soriano’s creative work in midfield give Deportivo enough to be dangerous on the counter. Leonardo Román Riquelme has made 12 saves in recent matches, confirming he has been kept busy, and Deportivo will need him sharp again at the Cerámica.

🚨Check out our dedicated Villarreal vs Deportivo La Coruna stats page for more info.

Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: Villarreal the Favourite

• Moneyline Villarreal 1.51 | Deportivo La Coruna 6.96
• Draw 4.72
• Over/Under Over 2.5 — | Under 2.5 —
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes — | No —

The moneyline odds around 1.51 for Villarreal reflect a comfortable home favourite status, and that price is fair given the shot volume and squad depth advantage. The draw at 4.72 carries some appeal given Deportivo’s resilience, but backing a draw for a home side that desperately needs points after a poor start is a low-value play. Deportivo at 6.96 is too long given their unbeaten La Liga run, but three games is too small a sample to trust it against a top-half squad at home. Villarreal at 1.51 is the straightforward call, and the BTTS market deserves attention given Aubameyang’s form and Villarreal’s tendency to concede.

Possible Starting Lineups

Villarreal Possible Starting Eleven

Iñigo Pérez has settled on a 4-4-2 in recent weeks, and this eleven reflects the players with the most minutes across the last five matches. Luíz Lúcio Reis Júnior starts in goal with seven saves to his name. Foyth and Renato Veiga are the most active defensive contributors, while Romero and Álvaro Santiago Mouriño González complete the back four. Pape Gueye and Santi Comesaña anchor the midfield, with Buchanan and Moleiro providing width. Up front, Mikautadze’s two goals make him the primary threat, and Pépé’s 11 shots across five games show he will test Deportivo’s backline repeatedly.

Deportivo La Coruna Possible Starting Eleven

Antonio Hidalgo also favours a 4-4-2 shape. Riquelme is the clear first-choice goalkeeper with 12 saves across recent matches. Navarro and Noubi are the most experienced defensive pair, with Quagliata and Bright Ede completing the line. Amatucci and Soriano form a balanced central midfield duo, with Villares and Jensen providing support and pressing. Aubameyang leads the line with three goals in five games, and Nsongo offers pace and directness alongside him. Aubameyang is the one player Villarreal cannot afford to give space to in behind.

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TipsGG Match Prediction

Villarreal need this win. Two points from three games, sitting 15th, at home against a side with far less La Liga pedigree, the motivation is clear. Their shot volume, passing quality, and individual attacking talent through Mikautadze and Pépé give them enough to break down a Deportivo side that has been solid but not spectacular. Aubameyang will cause problems, and Deportivo’s 39 interceptions across five matches shows they can disrupt play effectively, but Villarreal’s home record and overall squad depth tip the balance. We predict a 2-1 Villarreal win, with BTTS landing given Aubameyang’s recent scoring form and Villarreal’s tendency to concede at least once per match.

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