Vila Nova vs America MG Prediction: 14.06.2025 Campeonato Brasileiro Série B Preview

As the Campeonato Brasileiro Série B 2025 regular season unfolds, Vila Nova welcomes America MG to Estadio Onesio Brasileiro Alvarenga in Goiania for a pivotal matchup. While neither team boasts irresistible recent form, every point is crucial as they battle for position in the tightly packed mid-table. Both coaches, Rafael Lacerda for Vila Nova and Enderson Moreira for America MG, will be under pressure to revive their squads’ fortunes after difficult recent runs. An interesting subplot: both teams have shown defensive frailties in recent games, raising eyebrows regarding which defensive line will hold up under pressure in what feels like a must-win game for both sides.

Two key players to watch will be Vila Nova’s imposing defender Bernardo Schappo, who scored in their last five outings and is trusted to marshal their defense, and America MG’s dynamic forward Willian, who netted twice in recent matches and leads the charge up front. Their ability to influence both ends of the field could prove decisive.

A “hot stat” glancing from their recent five matches: America MG has registered a remarkable 69 total fouls, underscoring an aggressive style that could affect the flow of the match and potentially lead to key suspensions—or opportunities from set pieces for Vila Nova.

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Vila Nova vs America MG prediction

The best value prediction for this matchup is backing Vila Nova Draw No Bet. Despite losing three straight, the home side has been slightly more resilient at their own ground and will be determined to break the slide. Their opponents, America MG, have the lowest away winrate among the table’s top 14, and while both sides are struggling for consistency, the Goiania crowd could be the match’s tilting factor.

Statistically, Vila Nova tends to control the tempo with a preference for patient build-up play, reflected in their lower foul count (57) and pass accuracy (57 percent over the last five matches). America MG is more combative, racking up a high number of fouls and yellow cards (13 in five matches), indicating press-heavy and risk-taking defending—which may backfire if the referee is strict or Vila Nova capitalizes on set plays. Ball possession and set pieces could be decisive, with both teams racking up 30+ corners recently and each managing only a handful of goals in the last five matches (Vila Nova: 2, America MG: 5), suggesting we might see a cagey match with chances coming from outside the box or dead-ball situations.

Team Analysis

Vila Nova approaches this game off the back of a hard-fought 0-1 defeat against Criciuma, a match that typified their offensive struggles but also highlighted a low conversion rate despite 73 total shots in their last five outings. Historically using a 4-2-3-1, Vila Nova’s compact midfield triangle—anchored by Ralf and supported by Schappo at the back—aims for efficiency rather than flair. However, a run of five losses from their last six games underlines the urgency for tactical tweaks, particularly in their approach to chance creation and final-third efficiency. The Goiania-based side must avoid conceding early, as that’s often derailed their confidence when forced to chase the match.

America MG, likewise, enters with a stinging home loss to Ferroviaria (1-2) that included a solitary Willian strike. Their last five matches underscore volatility at both ends of the pitch: America MG alternates flashes of enterprising play with lapses that have cost them dearly, as indicated by their 38 percent winrate this calendar year. Also favoring a 4-2-3-1, America MG has shown offensive upside in Willian’s movement and Mariano’s passing (257 passes in five games), but their 69 total fouls signal both a willingness to disrupt the opposition and a potential area for disciplinary concern. Their challenge: stay compact in midfield transitions and avoid gifting Vila Nova dangerous set-pieces.

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🚨Read our full Vila Nova vs America MG stats for more analysis.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Vila Nova the favourite

• Moneyline Vila Nova 1.95 | America MG 4.20
• Draw 3.20
• Over/Under Over 2.5 2.80 | Under 2.5 1.45
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 2.28 | No 1.65

With Vila Nova offered at under 2.00 by most bookmakers, they’re installed as clear favorites, thanks in part to their home field and America MG’s erratic away form. The low price on Under 2.5 Goals reflects both teams’ recent struggles in attack. “Both Teams To Score: No” stands out as a value option considering their collective goal drought and defensive-minded setups. While a narrow Vila Nova victory seems most likely, the draw price is also attractive given how evenly-matched these squads appear statistically and tactically.

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Possible Starting Lineups

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The Verdict

Given the data and both sides’ recent form, my main pick is Vila Nova Draw No Bet. The odds on the home team reward their stronger command at Estadio Onesio Brasileiro Alvarenga and America MG’s discipline issues might hand Vila Nova crucial opportunities via set plays or late counter attacks. Expect a tactically tense, low-scoring match where the first goal takes on immense importance. A 1-0 or 0-0 result would not surprise, but Vila Nova’s home edge could tip the scale in their favor.

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